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  • I don't think America will fracture by 2033.
    Why not? We're in a Cold Civil War and according to Bill Schneider we're at our most divided since before the Civil War. The credit cycle is about to end and our economy is running on fumes. Plus we're getting ethnically replaced by "diversity" and becoming low trust.

    On the one hand, US is likely to fracture if you look at history; we're at an unprecedented length of time where borders are more or less the same. On the other hand, the large hegemonic world empires tend to lose influence abroad first; I think it's likelier that the US loses some control over south america or loses some footholds in asia, than that they fracture in their own country. But we'll see.
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