2-3 months ago, I would have believed it.Florida becoming redder than Arizona? Who would have thought it was possible?
Now, my concern is about Covid refugees. There's stories of NYC residents fleeing the city and settling outside of the state, specifically in FL. The state always gets a big share of New Yorkers, which is why I highlighted that Biden event earlier today.
You don't run something that specific without knowing about a trend, or having a plan for a niche.
There's other big city refugees as well, of course, and they might be settling in other states like TX or the Carolinas. I have zero faith they're flipping to red voters within a few months of leaving blue strongholds. So I want to see what's going on with transplants first, before I can analyze whether this is a red year or purple year for Florida.
Maybe they're only a fraction of 1% percent of the electorate, but 2020 is a year when all paranoia is justified.