9/4/2018 - John Flynt crushed at the polls

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W person cow

Warren Lynch, Brianna Wu's Person Cow
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One of the truisms is an incumbent facing a Primary of any sort tops out between 70-80%. There is always a hard ceiling of 20%’ish contrarian or protest votes. It’s just the nature of the beast. You can’t please everybody. You could run a dead communist or a convicted serial killer against an incumbent and the incumbent would get 76%. If the incumbent is over 70% it means the challengers really had zero impact on the race and no name recognition whatsoever.
This is hyperbole. While the general principle may be true, the numbers aren't.
For example, Bill Cimbrelo in the neighboring district did a TON of outreach and field work, and STILL only got 13% against the incumbent's 86%.
Brianna got 23-24% and the incumbent got 70%.
This is due to 5 factors:
-There really are a lot of Stephen Lynch haters. He's not some generic incumbent, he's made a lot of veterans and service workers and feminists and leftists and black people and gay people mad.
-The Asian sounding name. It really was a factor. "Let's get the nice Asian lady in."
-Brianna is colorful, and people tend to remember her, good or bad.
-She really did end up going to way more events than Chris Voehl, and slightly more than Stephen Lynch even. People like to put a face to a name.
-I am awesome :)
 

AprilRains

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This is hyperbole. While the general principle may be true, the numbers aren't.
For example, Bill Cimbrelo in the neighboring district did a TON of outreach and field work, and STILL only got 13% against the incumbent's 86%.
You are cherry picking your example. Richard Neal in District 1 also got around 70% as an incumbent.

I don't like dealing with you, Warren, because it seems like your thumb is always on the scale. I don't know if it's a lot of wishful thinking on your part or if you genuinely think it's okay to do that in order to advance Goodthink, but I find I have to check your statements carefully, lest I believe them. I keep turning over your rocks, finding horrid bugs underneath them, and then looking out at the field of rocks you've strewn and wondering what's under them.
 

W person cow

Warren Lynch, Brianna Wu's Person Cow
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You are cherry picking your example. Richard Neal in District 1 also got around 70% as an incumbent.

I don't like dealing with you, Warren, because it seems like your thumb is always on the scale. I don't know if it's a lot of wishful thinking on your part or if you genuinely think it's okay to do that in order to advance Goodthink, but I find I have to check your statements carefully, lest I believe them. I keep turning over your rocks, finding horrid bugs underneath them, and then looking out at the field of rocks you've strewn and wondering what's under them.
Richard Neal's opponent ran an amazing campaign, which was the first campaign in the whole state endorsed by Our Revolution.
They did an excellent job, and much better than I did. Tahirah is also very inspiring.
I'm not saying I'm the best in the world or best in the state.
Just that I did way better than say Cimbrelo's (in the 9th) or Rucinski's (in the 4th) campaign managers did :)
 

MMX

True defective
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Richard Neal's opponent ran an amazing campaign, which was the first campaign in the whole state endorsed by Our Revolution.
They did an excellent job, and much better than I did. Tahirah is also very inspiring.
I'm not saying I'm the best in the world or best in the state.
Just that I did way better than say Cimbrelo's (in the 9th) or Rucinski's (in the 4th) campaign managers did :)

But you didn't really run a campaign did you
Did you write/direct the campaign videos - nope
Did you loose a potential endorsement because you wouldn't speak up - yup
Did Brianna follow up any of the leads you provided her - mostly nope
Aside from giving Brianna notes on what to say in public you freely admit she fucked it up.
Like I said credit were due you got her on the ballet (admittedly by hiring two separate firms) but the election results mostly seem to favour Brianna being an x-factor and potential voter disenchantment with Stephen Lynch, neither factor you control.
 

W person cow

Warren Lynch, Brianna Wu's Person Cow
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Joe Kennedy was the incumbent in the 4th, asshole.
I can't deny that Kennedy is much more well-liked than Lynch.
It's definitely a valid factor.
"Man of the people" Stephen Lynch is not so convincing, and has led his district down the tubes.

But you didn't really run a campaign did you
Did you write/direct the campaign videos - nope
Did you loose a potential endorsement because you wouldn't speak up - yup
Did Brianna follow up any of the leads you provided her - mostly nope
Like I said credit were italking due you got her on the ballet (admittedly by hiring two separate firms) but the election results mostly seem to favour Brianna being an x-factor and potential voter disenchantment with Stephen Lynch, neither factor you control.
Yes, as I said that accounts for about 60%-65% of the votes Brianna got. Definitely the biggest factor. Just not the only one :)
 
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AprilRains

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I can't deny that Kennedy is much more well-liked than Lynch.
It's definitely a valid factor.
"Man of the people" Stephen Lynch is not so convincing, and has led his district down the tubes.
You see, before you established your reputation as an underhanded lying asshole, I might have credited that anti-Lynch venom. Now? Who fuckin' cares.
 

MMX

True defective
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Yes, as I said that accounts for about 60%-65% of the votes Brianna got. Definitely the biggest factor. Just not the only one :)

Your wilting as the day goes on
You started at 100% of Brianna's votes is down to me and now your down to 40%.
You took credit for getting Brianna on the ballet but also concede you hired a company to ensure the forms went through smooth, your friend recommended them and Brianna paid them, you were a middle man at best, a Fredo.
It's like the sold out panel you "arranged" but had little to no involvement passed the idea of "let's invite progressives to chat". You take credit for everything and belittle the efforts of the friends you introduced Brianna too that used their time and resources, fuck even Frank deserves some credit.
 
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Safir

目が覚めて落ちぶれろ
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So much salt on the Farms today over Wu's 20 odd percent in a PRIMARY. Come on new political fags we have here, you gotta learn the basics of electoral political in the US. As has been noted, there are probably about 1/4 of all voters in the district that hate Lynch and would vote for a turnip on the ballot instead. There is quite a bit of overlap with the "progressive" wing of the Dems among this group and the other longshot guy didn't court those votes at all.

Furthermore, voters vote all the time, even well informed ones in primaries, on heuristics -- for Wu that's proably just her name -- Brianna Wu -- who many voters probably associated with a progressive 1st or 2nd generation Asian-American woman candidate.
His sorry excuse for a platform was an incoherent mix of techbro nu-slavery and pseudo-socialist wankery. The election day is the first day of Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing and women's rights are at the bottom of the list, seriously, Johnny boy? Whenever he opens his mouth, "I'm going to sell you to Bezos for peanuts" comes out (or in, 'cuz Soylent). The socialist solution to unemployment is public enterprise, unemployment benefits and free municipal housing. Johnny, you're not running for President, dipshit; if you strengthen workers' rights, nu-slavers will up and leave just like that, even suffering losses, because "investors" can pump them full of cash for a dozen Rep terms and teaching an uppity state a lesson is more important than stock price. Massive free market spending on climate change is a handout to corporate contractors, and UBI without housing is a handout to landlords. Prices rise, inflation doesn't happen because the Fed is a cunt no matter who chairs it, people's purchasing power decreases, the economy nosedives, small businesses die, vultures feed on the remains. SO PROGRESSIVE.
 

W person cow

Warren Lynch, Brianna Wu's Person Cow
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Jun 8, 2018
Your wilting as the day goes on
You started at 100% of Brianna's votes is down to me and now your down to 40%.
You took credit for getting Brianna on the ballet but also concede you hired a company to ensure the forms went through smooth, your friend recommended them and Brianna paid them, you were a middle man at best, a Fredo.
It's like the sold out panel you "arranged" but had little to no involvement passed the idea of "let's invite progressives to chat". You take credit for everything and belittle the efforts of the friends you introduced Brianna too that used their time and resources, fuck even Frank deserves some credit.
Yup Frank deserves a ton of credit! If anybody did more work on that campaign than me it was Frank!
Heck, everybody who worked on that crazy campaign deserves a medal.
Out of 5 US Congress challenger campaigns in MA, we came in a respectable third!
Ayanna Pressley 52%
Tahirah Wadud 30%
Brianna Wu (the only one with 2 opponents) 23%
Bill Cimbrelo 13%
Gary Rucinski 5%
 

Slap47

Hehe xd
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Wu has a 70% chance of winning this time.

https://twitter.com/Spacekatgal/status/1037305394740305922
 

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