World Brexit: "Technical terms" agreed - Chequers minus, as feared, or Brexit in name only.

Ginger Piglet

Fictional Manhunt Survivor
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Predictions time everyone are we looking at another hung parliament our slim majority?
Depends. Theresa May had a stone bonker of a poll lead in 2017 but shat all over it by running a really stupid campaign and scoring repeated own goals. Strong and stable! Strong and stable! Strong and stable! Oh, and dementia tax, bringing back fox hunting, and similar, all of which didn't need to be broadcast during an election. If Boris doesn't do this, he might have a majority either by himself or in coalition with the Brexit Party (and a non aggression pact is strongly advised frankly.)

Then again, the Labour Party are in the process of imploding because they don't have a coherent line on Brexit. Just a few weeks ago they were saying they were going to renegotiate the deal then have a second referendum where they campaign against the deal they've negotiated.

As for the Limp Dems, CUK/TIG/RA/TInGe/Chuka's Angels, the Green, and the Scottish Nationalists, well, they seem to spend most of their time shouting about who's the most remainy.
 

Lou Wrong

Butthurt about Buddyloids
kiwifarms.net
Predictions time everyone are we looking at another hung parliament our slim majority?
No way Conservatives win a majority of the votes, no way they don't win a majority of the seats. They righted the ship under Boris (more like May was weighing them down the whole time) and Brexit Party doesn't look likely to seriously contest many of their areas while the Lib Dems and Labour are still neck and neck in the polling.

Now, Labour could in theory unfuck itself by taking a firm position on Brexit or replacing their leader with a leader (no editing error here, I mean what I typed.) But they won't, Corbin has a solid majority of labor's voting base and would put many of his party's existing seats in danger if he were to come out in favor of remaining/a second vote.
 

Racist Trash

Fucking Lidl doesn't have any Custard Creams.
kiwifarms.net
If the northern counties decide to vote Labour despite being betrayed for the urban champagne socialists we can all blame them, we already know places like London are exceptional so its up to them to stop with the generational hand me down voting.
 
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Alba gu brath

kiwifarms.net
Predictions time everyone are we looking at another hung parliament our slim majority?

Hard to say really, the polls at the moment need the Brexit party to actually materialize wins at the polls and not just a good showing, at the same time, there's the risk if they even do, it'll only be because they've split the right wing voting block. Goes the same for Labour and the Libs, apparently the Dems are going for twenty odd percent, but if that's just twenty odd percent off of Labours total, then we're back at square one with perhaps a slight advantage to the Tories. Labour need the Libs like cancer needs access to a good blood supply. Cannae save Labour making the majority by themselves.

Short version, anyone's game really. More biased towards the Tories winning with a tiny majority/coalition.
But if they're still half and half over Brexit, then the election won't have meant shit.
 

Coccxys

kiwifarms.net
If the northern counties decide to vote Labour despite being betrayed for the urban champagne socialists we can all blame them, we already know places like London are exceptional so its up to them to stop with the generational hand me down voting.
The north west Labour party MPs are all pretty safe but thar could begin to change. The two main blocks that keep them in power were also reasonably proBrexit.

The white working class and Pakistani community make up by far the greatest percentage of votes in the constituencies near where I grew up. The former were clearly leave supporters but there was a surprisingly high proportion of the latter that also voted leave.
 

Slimy Time

Rape Face #4
kiwifarms.net
Happy that we are having a GE (which shouldn't have taken this long) and what is essentially a pseudo-2nd referendum on Brexit. As I said before, how the Tories perform will be a function of what Farage does. If he's exceptional/arrogant and decides to run against them hard, we could get a hung parliament or (by some cruel fate) a Labour government. If he runs tactically against Lib Dems and Labour, then Tories will do well.

One thing - Because it's taking place on the 12th December, student/youth energy and enthusiasm will likely be low(er). It will be the last week for most universities, with most going home early or going abroad on holiday. Those that live abroad who can vote will very likely not bother with a postal. They won't be able to foster the same level of energy that they did with 2017, short of an ace social media campaign. It's why the Lib-Dems wanted it on the 9th, a week before all the students go back home. So that will work in the Tories favour.

Labour is likely to lose some seats. Only one I am certain is Canterbury going back to blue. Has a small majority in what was historically a Conservative safe seat and relied on Corbyn promising the world to the large student population and wheeling down Thornbelly to inch over the line. 13th is the end of term, so those guys will likely all be gone by then, and the Tory candidate is a local female ex-barrister and ardent Brexit supporter, so that's ticks a lot of boxes. Traditional working class north Labour supporters may be split depending on whether Farage mobilises in those areas. Labour isn't the working man's party anymore, it's a front for the Muslim and Student population.

Lib-Dems are running entirely on a fuck-Brexit campaign. That may net them some more seats. However, I'm not convinced that they will do as well as they would like us to think. For all the noise they make, they have a mere 19 seats in parliament, of which 7 of them are ship jumpers from Labour and Tory, who were never elected on a Lib-Dem manifesto resulting from shit leadership from May and Corbyn.

I can see the Tories winning seats a) depending on how Farage moves, b) by putting pro-Brexit candidates, c) Not running a shitheap of a manifesto with obvious hit piece points like "dementia tax" or "fox hunting" that their opponents can repeat again and again and d) not having a toilet-tier slogan like Brexit means Brexit - They need Boris to be the guy who London voted in as Mayor, not another stock Tory.
 
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Slimy Time

Rape Face #4
kiwifarms.net
It’s a good thing they put their foot down on EU nationals who aren’t citizens voting. The salt from remainers on my timeline from that one was amazing, but it’s insanity that was even considered in the first place.
Remainers and Opposition know they are on the backfoot here, they have to try every dirty trick in the book to win the election. Be it trying to get all EU nationals to vote (which is laughable given the rule on British Expats being time barred by 15 years) to lowering the voting age this time to 16 years old (whereby every teacher will be pressuring their students to go vote Labour and Lib-Dem).
 
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Alba gu brath

kiwifarms.net
poll.jpg

Just saw that a wee while ago, looks like more inline with what would happen if the Brexit lads don't make a showing. The only real chance I can see Labour having is if the Brexit/right wing vote gets split, outside of that then they're snookered, if this poll is any indication of things to come.

That said, look at the piss poor showing from the Libs, all that fecking bluster for a dribble of wankers.
 
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Slimy Time

Rape Face #4
kiwifarms.net
View attachment 990721

Just saw that a wee while ago, looks like more inline with what would happen if the Brexit lads don't make a showing. The only real chance I can see Labour having is if the Brexit/right wing vote gets split, outside of that then they're snookered, if this poll is any indication of things to come.

That said, look at the piss poor showing from the Libs, all that fecking bluster for a dribble of wankers.
I'm always suspect of polls now. A lot of work required on the campaign trail. May walked into an election with a massive lead in polls and managed to utterly fuck herself. It will be much more accurate mid to late November.
 

Alba gu brath

kiwifarms.net
I'm always suspect of polls now. A lot of work required on the campaign trail. May walked into an election with a massive lead in polls and managed to utterly fuck herself. It will be much more accurate mid to late November.
Aye, can only reasonably bet on the Scots results coming in as they appear in polls, just ain't enough of us buggers to upset things in that sense. With England, feck only knows half the time.
 
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