Can UBI Eliminate Poverty? - Hahaha! Fuck no!

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Can UBI actually work?

  • Yes

    Votes: 4 4.3%
  • No

    Votes: 60 65.2%
  • YangGang 2020

    Votes: 28 30.4%

  • Total voters
    92

Arctic Fox

You won't get past my wall.
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 7, 2019
I've been looking into the universal basic income idea for a while now, but only recently but effort into researching it. I'm making this thread to get some feedback on what others think of the idea, and what you think in regards to my theory that it would fail spectacularly.
According to Wikipedia, 13.5% of Americans live under the poverty line. Rounding out to about 43,000,000 people.
This is a lot of impoverished people for the richest nation in history. There are a variety of factors leading to this, from immigration, technological progress, offshoring jobs, etcetera. But we're trying to determine how to alleviate this with UBI, not the macroeconomic factors driving it.
According to Presidential hopeful Andrew Yang, he wants to give each citizen in the USA $1,000 per month, or $12,000 per year. His website explaining the idea states this:
"Andrew would implement a Universal Basic Income, ‘the Freedom Dividend,’ of $1,000/month, $12,000 a year for every American adult over the age of 18. This is independent of one’s work status or any other factor. This would enable all Americans to pay their bills, educate themselves, start businesses, be more creative, stay healthy, relocate for work, spend time with their children, take care of loved ones, and have a real stake in the future.

Any change to the Freedom Dividend would require a constitutional amendment.

It will be illegal to lend or borrow against one’s Dividend.

A Universal Basic Income at this level would permanently grow the economy by 12.56 to 13.10 percent—or about $2.5 trillion by 2025—and it would increase the labor force by 4.5 to 4.7 million people. Putting money into people’s hands and keeping it there would be a perpetual boost and support to job growth and the economy."
The Freedom Dividend, as he calls it, would fundamentally change how the United States as a nation functions. Say it passes. The total cost for this endeavor, if he truly means what he says, would cost the American taxpayer on a yearly basis over $3,948,647,844,000. Just shy of four trillion dollars. A staggering $329,053,987,000 per month.
You could argue that using the total population for the calculations is an unfair representation, since it is specified for people over 18, but this argument is flawed. The vast majority of people will live long enough to collect their monthly payment, combine this with overall population growth, and immigration on top, and the point is moot. Even so, the total yearly cost for everyone currently over 18 years old would be $3,770,780,824,000. The difference is relatively better at best.
To add some context to this, the total yearly budget for the USA federal Government, which according to Yang would be the provider of this welfare, is $4,746,000,000,000. The 'Freedom Dividend' would nearly double the USA federal budget. Eclipsing military spending by four times the amount. For those with knowledge of economics, you know that this would be absolutely devastating. Even those with barely any knowledge in economics can easily see how this can fail miserably almost instantaneously.
But let's say we cut out Yang's idea and instead op for a middle of the road approach. Say we provide this only to Americans who are in poverty, and near poverty. The number I mentioned earlier being 13.5% of the country, or approximately 43,000,000 citizens. Doing the math, it seems it might actually be plausible. The total it would cost to provide UBI to the impoverished of America would be $516,000,000,000. Compared to the previous numbers, this seems much more realistic. But, there's a catch to this. This only helps people in poverty, not in near poverty. The total amount of people in near poverty, or right on the brink of falling into the impoverished category, is 100,000,000 people. Nearly a third of the American population. Again, these numbers are from the mentioned Wikipedia post at the top. Combine this with the other 43,000,000 and you see the issue.
The total cost of providing 12,000 a year to the in poverty and near poverty people in America will cost right around $1,716,000,000,000. Increasing the US federal budget by almost 50%. Even accounting for budget cuts in other sectors of government, the damage would be irreparable.
Taxes will absolutely skyrocket. Both on the super rich and the common man. Given the habit of the rich to bail to third world nations with their offshore millions, the economy of the United States will very likely crash. Hard.
Small businesses and corporations alike would snap under the pressure and go out of business, causing unemployment to skyrocket and leaving only the richest companies to remain. Resulting in a mass of Monopolistic Enclaves controlling massive sections of the remaining economy. In conjunction with this, prices would also shoot up, possibly, even probably to a degree where the Universal Basic Income will need to increase further to make it effective.
In most cases like this, the current government may panic, and begin to print more money to put into circulation to pay for this. Considering the people pushing for this idea, and the intelligence they've displayed, they likely won't know of the consequences to such rash inflation. The value of the US Dollar would plummet, further destroying the economy. Many companies would outright abandon the United States as a possible trade zone, leaving the USA in possibly the worst financial disaster in history. And just as the Great Depression rippled across the globe, strangely enough just shy of a hundred years ago, other economies could be so badly damaged by the fall of the American economy that they could crash as well. creating a Global Depression not seen, once again, in nearly a century.
What do you think? How are my numbers, my predictions? Do you agree, or did I get something wrong? Do you think some form of UBI could work? Can Yang make a system complex enough to handle such a massive boost in spending without neutering other sectors of the government and its responsibilities to its people?
I'm curious to see what people here think.
 

Simply Outplayed

kiwifarms.net
Joined
May 13, 2019
You would have to raise taxes, there is no way around that but there are several massive cost cutting measures you could take to make the tax burden not as heavy.

Yang, for all his memery has actually stated a decent plan that would cut costs overnight and that is to release everyone in prison who is currently in the clink for a non violent cannabis offense. I'm sure that this would save a shit tonne of money - in fact if you decriminalized all drugs and replaced sending people to prison with rehabilitation like Portugal or Switzerland does it would make money in the long term.

Regarding military spending it would be wise to cut back on some of the more superfluous bases, perhaps stop sabre rattling with Iran and Russia? I'm sure that you could cut the US military spending by 10% at the very least, it's a shame that zoomers childrens children are going to be paying off the Iraq and Afghanistan wars but what is done is done.

For healthcare, you need to cut out the insurance companies and make it more accessible to curb last minute visits to emergency. I'm not an American but I'm pretty sure that the insurance companies suck up a huge amount of money which massively drive up the costs of healthcare. Money wasted to enrich insurance company executives which could be used elsewhere - but again, I feel not so strongly about this just because I'm not an Amerilard and am a brainlet in general.

There are other things that I think could be done to close up the tax burden like preventing walmart from paying employees so little that they're on food stamps, forcing the huge tech monopolies to pay taxes properly and capping the amount that student loans can be.
 

Exigent Circumcisions

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and that is to release everyone in prison who is currently in the clink for a non violent cannabis offense
You do realize that given the nature of plea deals, many of those people were also charged with violent or serious offences but just agreed to take the soft time for the marijuana instead of the gun they were packing?
Right?
 

Arctic Fox

You won't get past my wall.
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 7, 2019
You would have to raise taxes, there is no way around that but there are several massive cost cutting measures you could take to make the tax burden not as heavy.

Yang, for all his memery has actually stated a decent plan that would cut costs overnight and that is to release everyone in prison who is currently in the clink for a non violent cannabis offense. I'm sure that this would save a shit tonne of money - in fact if you decriminalized all drugs and replaced sending people to prison with rehabilitation like Portugal or Switzerland does it would make money in the long term.

Regarding military spending it would be wise to cut back on some of the more superfluous bases, perhaps stop sabre rattling with Iran and Russia? I'm sure that you could cut the US military spending by 10% at the very least, it's a shame that zoomers childrens children are going to be paying off the Iraq and Afghanistan wars but what is done is done.

For healthcare, you need to cut out the insurance companies and make it more accessible to curb last minute visits to emergency. I'm not an American but I'm pretty sure that the insurance companies suck up a huge amount of money which massively drive up the costs of healthcare. Money wasted to enrich insurance company executives which could be used elsewhere - but again, I feel not so strongly about this just because I'm not an Amerilard and am a brainlet in general.

There are other things that I think could be done to close up the tax burden like preventing walmart from paying employees so little that they're on food stamps, forcing the huge tech monopolies to pay taxes properly and capping the amount that student loans can be.
Can you link this plan to cut costs? Would it be enough to alleviate a near double cost in spending?
 

Simply Outplayed

kiwifarms.net
Joined
May 13, 2019
You do realize that given the nature of plea deals, many of those people were also charged with violent or serious offences but just agreed to take the soft time for the marijuana instead of the gun they were packing?
Right?

Please don't begin sentences with "You do realize" it makes me want to Etika myself.

I am aware that not everyone incarcerated for cannabis offences are good people. However, many of those people could be taxpaying members of society.

Also, the US prison system is an outlier compared to the rest of the world.


Here is the total prison population by country. I'm not well read enough to know many of the specifics but there are definitely savings to be made, surely the US couldn't have that many more criminals than other countries. It's got to be the system.
 

Y2K Baby

The Codex of Ultimate Wisdom???
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
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Mar 30, 2017
Daily reminder that the UBI was originally proposed by a libertarian economist to cut back on paying government workers and eliminate government bureaucracy. This is its biggest and basically only positive trait.
I'm not an Amerilard and am a brainlet in general.
Fuck off, non-American.

Also, your hot takes are all tarded.
 

Exigent Circumcisions

Post tasteful trotter daguerreotypes.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Joined
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Can you link this plan to cut costs? Would it be enough to alleviate a near double cost in spending?
Hahaha oh you sweet, summer child. Just read Marx! He explained all of it!


This UBI shit is absolutely retarded. Everybody who 'needs' it is already on welfare or SSI, the people who don't need it, well, that's obvious. Anybody unironically advocating for this is either 21 or younger, a NEET, or legitimately retarded. I think I remember Yang on the Joe Rogan podcast saying that he'd eliminate welfare; where are we going to put all of those useless bureaucrats if he did that? These people aren't suited for any other job.

It's just a huge nope all around.

Please don't begin sentences with "You do realize" it makes me want to Etika myself.
Oh, good.

You do realize I don't think that's necessarily a bad thing, right?
 

Simply Outplayed

kiwifarms.net
Joined
May 13, 2019
Daily reminder that the UBI was originally proposed by a libertarian economist to cut back on paying government workers and eliminate government bureaucracy. This is its biggest and basically only positive trait.

Fuck off, non-American.

Also, your hot takes are all tarded.


Stop being world hegemony and people will not care about your country and government. For instance, I have no opinions regarding how the Central African Republic taxes its citizens.
 

Arctic Fox

You won't get past my wall.
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 7, 2019
I heard it from various interviews he's done, I think some of them he said on his Joe Rogan Podcast. I do believe that regardless of whether you go with UBI many of his policies make sense for cost cutting.
The cost cuts would have to be massive. Is there any specifics you can provide? A link or two maybe?
What country are you from? If you don't mind my asking.