China Floodwatch 2020 - Wuhan, Hubei is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

Is the Three Gorges Dam kill?

  • Yes

  • No


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Consenticles

Sic semper tyrannis, Death to tyrants!
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They would have two problems
  • Their infrastructure (!) will be split in half due to the dam bursting, leaving a lot of areas completely isolated
  • Since Xi is already a controversial figure among the CCP, a power struggle is likely to break out if the worst happens
Yes the point of a totalitarian regime is to have absolute control, but in this scenario the very foundation of that control is damaged and not enough time has passed for Xi to have completed centralizing the party under him; After all, this would be a black swan event if it happens, so plans for this scenario might not be mapped out well.
Hi fellas, I'm here with another graphic-aided post. After consulting with an electrical engineer in the US who works on the power grid, I have made a few observations about China's energy sector, and how this flood will be felt in terms of electricity.

First, let's compare infrastructure. The US is divided into 4 grids, with the addition of having some subdivisions. Power stations are pretty well protected from interruptions, able to move the demanded load to another station, should one go down. Unless something biblical happens.

1200px-NERC-map-en.svg.png

The US and Canada actually have a grid that connects and is not totally independent of the other nation. Like we could shut off power in parts of one grid on the border of Canada and that would make the demand for the nearby stations higher, but those stations, even across the border, would not be SOL. It isn't like a chain where if one link is removed, the entire thing falls apart. This shit is set up really well.

Speaking on setting things up well, let's talk about the infrastructure itself. Transformers in the US and China are made by their respective countries, with us more recently developing internal infrastructure to make them ourselves.

GE makes an incredibley high quality product, and you want everything to be flawless because, depending on the type of transformer, that is up to 270,000 lbs of copper wire in EACH transformer. That's right, there is so much copper wiring that they do not measure it in length, but instead in sheer weight.

These things in total can weigh from 160,000 to 400,000 lbs. A lot of the older ones had to be rolled out into substations on train xarts, and because of their sheer weight and size, they just welded the carts to the ground, or left them on their respective rails.

These puppies are the most expensive part of the grid, by far. China's not got the best record when it comes to the quality of rare metals, or even construction, so let's just assume that the failure rate is going to be at least double of that of a substation in the US.

Now let's compare China's grid with that of the US's....

Ergy-Grid-China3.jpg

More sections, likely divided more by demand rather than geography. The Yangze's floodwaters would run through more than half of this, as major cities are situated along it. Below is a map of cities in China with over 0.8 mil in population.

793.jpg

One thing to note is that the TGD produces a metric ass ton of power. About 1.8% of their TOTAL power consumption each year. The Hoover Dam produces .1 % of consumed power for the US, in comparison. While the number may seem low for China, remember that its collapse causes a huge vacuum of demand to be formed.

A spontaneously occurring event like this collapse is one of the few ways an ENTIRE portion of the grid can go out. Basically what happens is that the demand is way higher than what is physically possible to produce.

It could be anywhere from a couple days to a couple weeks, or even months of sections of the grid being unable to access electricity. It really depends on a few factors, mostly being accessibility and scale of the damage. They would likely need to reroute and repair distribution networks that have been destroyed, and a lot of the repairs are going to involve creating whole new parts, which requires factories... which require power. It is a viscious cycle, you see.

Another thing I want to note is that, aside from some seriously angry looking fencing and a lot of DANGER signs, these substations are really, really vulnerable. I am not sure if this is any different in China, but in the US there aren't exactly armed guards or anything to deter criminals. It's mainly the fact that if you touch the wrong thing once inside the fence, God himself could not save you from an extraordinarily painful death.

All this being said, were there to be a tsunami of moderate height and force, there is not much anyone can do to protect the infrastructure. They don't place them anywhere special, but at least in the US there is a good bit of calculation done to ensure the station can withstand winds, earthquakes, etc, without totally collapsing.

Let's compare transmission lines, just for the sake of seeing how well planned out these two grids are. Because this will be important in the event that they need to reroute the power in order to get things back up.

unnamed (1).jpg
It is a bit messy, bur there is some structure to it. What you mainly will see is a repeated pattern of looping, meaning the lines do not have dead ends. This design makes it a simple task for the US grid to be rerouted if one station goes down.

china-grid-map.jpg

Now we compare that with data from China, and we have a lot more dead ends. Which might make sense if we look at each one - a possible reason for this could be that there is a large factory or facility that is an energy producer at these ends. Perhaps they will be expanded later? But for the most part this is indicative of poor planning and cost cutting measures. It's just cheaper.

And if they are cutting costs in this manner, then I think it would be indicative that the parts themselves aren't going to be the highest quality. In substation design, they will spend hundreds of thousands, if not several millions, on updating infrastructure. A lot of this is just for purchasing material. Transformers are like half a million by themselves.

TLDR; TGD collapse will leave a power vacuum, destroy infrastructure, and thanks to poor planning and quality of materials, this is going to be so much worse than it should be.
 
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Otterly

Primark Primarch
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I kind of understand destroying downstream dams - but why upstream? wouldn't that increase flow into the tres gorges
So that water is diverted into flood plains rather than staying in the river channel and going downstream.
Flow can be diverted out of the main channel by blasting smaller side dams - a lot of these dams are fairly small and are there to hold water for dryer periods so that they can irrigate farmland.
The dams that hold water back from the time et channel itself are the ones that would make it worse.

exited to avoid double posting but just want to say that @Consenticles this post is the kind of informative autism I come here for.
V interesting ta.
 
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I am the Muffin Maker

kiwifarms.net
I would worry that if the Dam situation has a big impact on China's economy, agriculture, and industrial capacity, that it would accelerate tensions- encouraging them to opt for war with the US *now* rather than later before the economic side effects cripple them and remove war (in some form) as an option.

It may or may not be a shooting war, it could just be a ramp up in intensity of the low level economic warfare they've been teasing us with for years now- but if something is going to heat up, they'll do it before the Dam can cripple them and cut off that option.
Yea, people seem to forget. Even if the US were to be utterly defeated and destroyed in a war we have a 71 nuclear submarines. Of those 14 are ballistic missile submarines (boomers) and any one of them could really ruin a nation's day once it dumps its complement of nuclear weapons on its doorstep. Someone might beat the US in a war, but it would be the last thing they ever did.

Likewise - assume for a moment that the 3gd does fall, the best arable land of China is suddenly destroyed, 100,000s if not millions of people are dead, missing, or starving. That still leaves China as one of the most powerful military forces on the planet with six Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. And they would have the will and the need to use them.
 

tehpope

Archivist
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I would worry that if the Dam situation has a big impact on China's economy, agriculture, and industrial capacity, that it would accelerate tensions- encouraging them to opt for war with the US *now* rather than later before the economic side effects cripple them and remove war (in some form) as an option.

It may or may not be a shooting war, it could just be a ramp up in intensity of the low level economic warfare they've been teasing us with for years now- but if something is going to heat up, they'll do it before the Dam can cripple them and cut off that option.
You can't have a proper war if you can't feed your soldiers. No war has been won with low energy soldiers.

Likewise - assume for a moment that the 3gd does fall, the best arable land of China is suddenly destroyed, 100,000s if not millions of people are dead, missing, or starving. That still leaves China as one of the most powerful military forces on the planet with six Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. And they would have the will and the need to use them.
People have mentioned that the Chinese military is very similar to the Japanese military during the runup to WWII. They have too much energy and are raring to fight. If push came to shove, the military might over throw the CPC. The military, and the CPC, probably realize its not wise to launch nukes at the people who provide you with food (US. Australia).
 

The Littlest Shitlord

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You can't have a proper war if you can't feed your soldiers. No war has been won with low energy soldiers.

People have mentioned that the Chinese military is very similar to the Japanese military during the runup to WWII. They have too much energy and are raring to fight. If push came to shove, the military might over throw the CPC. The military, and the CPC, probably realize its not wise to launch nukes at the people who provide you with food (US. Australia).
It wouldn't surprise me if first dibs on food is given to the military, North Korea style. The resulting artificial famine will be used to weed out the disloyal, by allocating access to food based on social credit score.
 

tehpope

Archivist
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It wouldn't surprise me if first dibs on food is given to the military, North Korea style. The resulting artificial famine will be used to weed out the disloyal, by allocating access to food based on social credit score.
The question would be is there enough food to go around to feed an entire army? You can't half ass taking on the most powerful military in the world. You need all hands on deck. China might have more men, but their tech is lacking. I doubt China has or can round up enough food to feed a million plus people. At this point, no one is going to stick their neck out to help China lest they want a giant target on their backs.
 
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thx1138

Are you now, or have you ever been?
kiwifarms.net
That still leaves China as one of the most powerful military forces on the planet with six Jin-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. And they would have the will and the need to use them.
This I promise you: the USN knows exactly where those subs are, right now, and if they went to launch depth and started to flood missile tubes, they would be sunk before they could fire.
 

More AWS-8Q Than You

kiwifarms.net
This I promise you: the USN knows exactly where those subs are, right now, and if they went to launch depth and started to flood missile tubes, they would be sunk before they could fire.
It's like people forget we played cat and mouse with the Soviet's sub fleet for decades and I have no doubt that the Russians were better at it than the Chinese. Even with Russia's cursed navy.
 

Sneed's Feed And Seed

Your package might arrive a little waterlogged...
kiwifarms.net
Dams and the reservoirs they create are just another way humankind goes about fucking things up. Beavers build dams but they build them in the right places and create habitats for themselves and other animals. They manage what they create and they play a part in creating the diversity nature wants and it is all sustainable.
Humans, on the other hand, build stuff that breaks nature and went it breaks we end up doing even more damage , and our contribution to diversity, on this planet, is bullshit like men in dresses.
Beaver dams' lifespans are measured in months, Captain Planet. Plus, as others have posted, they're just as destructive if not moreso.

You can't have a proper war if you can't feed your soldiers.
Correct. "An army marches on its stomach", you know.
 

Xarpho

Eating lettuce due to kitty kibble shortages
kiwifarms.net
Hi fellas, I'm here with another graphic-aided post. After consulting with an electrical engineer in the US who works on the power grid, I have made a few observations about China's energy sector, and how this flood will be felt in terms of electricity.

First, let's compare infrastructure. The US is divided into 4 grids, with the addition of having some subdivisions. Power stations are pretty well protected from interruptions, able to move the demanded load to another station, should one go down. Unless something biblical happens.

View attachment 1484523

The US and Canada actually have a grid that connects and is not totally independent of the other nation. Like we could shut off power in parts of one grid on the border of Canada and that would make the demand for the nearby stations higher, but those stations, even across the border, would not be SOL. It isn't like a chain where if one link is removed, the entire thing falls apart. This shit is set up really well.
Shit, I didn't realize how rinky-dink China's electrical grid is. If a terrorist blew up a high-voltage utility tower in the United States, they would probably to be able to isolate the affected area and restore service relatively quickly while the damaged tower can be fixed. China's map looks like a single damaged pole can knock out an entire province.
 

Super-Chevy454

kiwifarms.net
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Consenticles

Sic semper tyrannis, Death to tyrants!
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Shit, I didn't realize how rinky-dink China's electrical grid is. If a terrorist blew up a high-voltage utility tower in the United States, they would probably to be able to isolate the affected area and restore service relatively quickly while the damaged tower can be fixed. China's map looks like a single damaged pole can knock out an entire province.
Yeah, on those long straight parts on the map, they wouldnt even be able to isolate where the disconnect occurred. The benefit of all those substations is that you are going to have a lot more information regarding any sort of failure event. That's why with the US map you see all these different points breaking up the longer lines.
 

Jet Fuel Johnny

Full Metal Sperg
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RodgerDodger

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Not sure anyone thinks the Chinese are going to rise up(except Pompeo maybe).

"The nail that stands tall gets hammered down"

Confucianism did a very good job in creating a collectivist culture. And tbf, it hasnt failed the Chinese totally yet.
Is the CCP going to collapse in a massive Chinese Revolution? No. Not likely. Is however Xi Xingping's time on the throne growing shakier by the day? Magic 8 Ball says Yes Definitely! His fellow secret rulers of China are growing disgusted with Xi. He's violated a number of the unspoken rules (don't mess with the money!) and has thus generated a lot of real enemies among the various politburo factions. His predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao and their factions are starting to openly move against him.

Shit, I didn't realize how rinky-dink China's electrical grid is. If a terrorist blew up a high-voltage utility tower in the United States, they would probably to be able to isolate the affected area and restore service relatively quickly while the damaged tower can be fixed. China's map looks like a single damaged pole can knock out an entire province.
And here's the magic question. How much of China's electricity does the Three Gorges Dam provide? Look at the power of the water ripping through the Dam. Look at the amount of mud and debris in that water. How much of the Hydroplant Turbines do you think are left at this point? How badly damaged have they been by all of this? Remember they were masking dumping water from the dam by bring ALL the Turbines online at once just a week or so ago and crowing about that achievement.
 

Krokodil Overdose

[|][||][||][|_]
kiwifarms.net
I would worry that if the Dam situation has a big impact on China's economy, agriculture, and industrial capacity, that it would accelerate tensions- encouraging them to opt for war with the US *now* rather than later before the economic side effects cripple them and remove war (in some form) as an option.
Well, that depends. Are they actually making contingency plans for the dam's possible failure, or are they still in full "RBMK reactors can't explode" mode and shipping off anyone who disagrees to Camp Organ Farm? Remember that saving face leads to hilariously fucked-up incentive structures in Communist regimes, and the Chinese version has an extra layer of cultural pride keeping them that much more locked into their choices.
 
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