China Floodwatch 2020 - Wuhan, Hubei is sinking and I dunno how to swim.

Is the Three Gorges Dam kill?

  • Yes

  • No


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Otterly

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kiwifarms.net
If you look at the peaks from the 3gd.mooo site and the graphs for tgd and chonquing upstream, you can see that the water from chongqing takes a few days to get to the dam. That massive peak chongquing had hasnt hit the dam yet. The peak the dam had on the same timeframe was from rains a few days earlier.

edited to add: 4m/s is fast river flow. So 250 sec to go 1km. That’s 4.16 mins. It’s 600km from chonquing to yichang so about 42 hours
 
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pwnest injun

An Honest Man is Always in Trouble
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One thing to note is that the TGD produces a metric ass ton of power. About 1.8% of their TOTAL power consumption each year. The Hoover Dam produces .1 % of consumed power for the US, in comparison. While the number may seem low for China, remember that its collapse causes a huge vacuum of demand to be formed.

A spontaneously occurring event like this collapse is one of the few ways an ENTIRE portion of the grid can go out. Basically what happens is that the demand is way higher than what is physically possible to produce.
I don't think that the demand for electricity would be very high once 1/4th of China is destroyed by a massive wall of water. If the dam collapses, millions of people will die and millions of electric kettles will stop making tea.
 

northstar747

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You can't have a proper war if you can't feed your soldiers. No war has been won with low energy soldiers.

People have mentioned that the Chinese military is very similar to the Japanese military during the runup to WWII. They have too much energy and are raring to fight. If push came to shove, the military might over throw the CPC. The military, and the CPC, probably realize its not wise to launch nukes at the people who provide you with food (US. Australia).
hahaha no

The army is a honest to god joke.


" His mother, Yang Bin, asked before he deployed if the work would be dangerous. “China is so powerful, who can bully us Chinese people?” her son replied, she recalled as she sat on a threadbare sofa in her rundown concrete home. “So our minds were set at ease.” "

He was killed by africans and real war footage on chinese TV upset them.

The PLA exist to serve the party, and you cant have too many good effective generals or soliders least they try to rise to power.

The armys real mission is subjecting their own people.
 

Consenticles

Sic semper tyrannis, Death to tyrants!
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I don't think that the demand for electricity would be very high once 1/4th of China is destroyed by a massive wall of water. If the dam collapses, millions of people will die and millions of electric kettles will stop making tea.
Yeah I actually did address that toward the end of my post.

The biggest issue is that all the infrastructure will be destroyed, and in order to repair that infrastructure you will need working factories. Which are going to need electricity. They will have trouble rerouting power because of the way their transmission lines are set up, so therefore the demand will continue to outweigh what is possible to produce.

Imagine all those coal power plants being swept away in this great tidal wave. Imagine the infrastructure which has been placed high up on poles being swept away by a wave that is so much higher.

I guarantee that the safety regulations involved in designing their substations have not accounted for an event like this. Mainly because it is not in their culture to admit that something *could* go wrong. That would be admitting your work is inferior. But mostly this is because an event like this is fucking biblical.

Imagine transformers blowing! It take 6 months to A YEAR to make a single one of these suckers. A quick google search shows that they have a lot of factories to build them, but check out how many are downstream!


You need power to rebound from this thing in a timely fashion. Many factories will be asked to go into overdrive in order to repair infrastructure as fast as humanly possible. That is going to demand a whole lot of electricity that they may not have. Sure, they will likely try to use good ol fashion human labor in some cases where machines would have been present, but that is going to be riddled with mistakes.

Not to mention the sheer SIZE of transformers, coiling the 270,000 lbs of copper PERFECTLY. Let's take that one step further even and ask where they are going to be able to process those 270,000lbs of copper wire, which cannot afford imperfections.

Some of these transformers are 400,000 lbs, some are *only* about 200,000 lbs. At the end of the day, you are going to need to move them from the factory floor all the way to some area devoted by flooding. We do this in the US with railways. In many cases we just remove the rails around the cart carrying the transformer, weld the cart down, and call it a day. You can literally see the wheels still on these things. But that in itself is going to need power, not to mention they cannot run a train if the tracks are under water.

This is a disaster that literally any country in the world would be crippled by. But it is the unique culture in China that will ensure that this is going to be so much worse than it could be. The government will ignore small and insignificant villages in favor of salvaging the most from the large cities they have invested in. There will be lives lost due to their special brand of damage control, which rewards sacrificing the few in favor of the many. It is a culture where assigning blame and pointing fingers is rewarded. Which is ironic for a country that claims to be all about the people.

The PLA exist to serve the party, and you cant have too many good effective generals or soliders least they try to rise to power.

The armys real mission is subjecting their own people.
In this scenario, this is entirely correct.

The PLA will be too busy with domestic issues, quelling uprisings, and organizing their devastated populace to get back to work. It reminds me much of the communist party in the USSR. The issue with such a restrictive and controlling government is that they have to enforce it in the event of free thinkers.

Should shit get biblical, they will have to somehow "encourage" the masses to get back to work instead of mourning their dead. Many will die from the floodwaters, but expect many to also die from ignorance and power struggles.
 

Otterly

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kiwifarms.net
When did the big amount of rain hit chonquing?
<Graphs are confusing>
E93177F1-6C12-4081-9795-A15484CF074D.jpeg
this is just me looking at it and I have no idea if I’m right, but two things strike me from this graph. The first is that the green inflow line at tgd and the blue line at cuntan/ chongqing look remarkably similar. If anyone wants to go to the raw data and look at it I’d be utterly unsurprised if that blue line and the green dots are derived from each other. I bet blue line is green dots x1.something plus or minus a percent or two.
That’s suspicious, because they’re 600km apart. The only way that could happen is someone fiddling the numbers or a general pattern of inflow from rain falling evenly across the basin.
The second is that the larger peak at chongquing. Probably is starting to hit now and the huge inflow from before was that smaller peak, otherwise where the fuck has all that water gone? Of course one answer is all over anhui...

Thoughts? Oh and the pink boxes are what I think are the same peak of water as it hits the TGD two days after it leaves chongqing
 
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jje100010001

kiwifarms.net
Is the CCP going to collapse in a massive Chinese Revolution? No. Not likely. Is however Xi Xingping's time on the throne growing shakier by the day? Magic 8 Ball says Yes Definitely! His fellow secret rulers of China are growing disgusted with Xi. He's violated a number of the unspoken rules (don't mess with the money!) and has thus generated a lot of real enemies among the various politburo factions. His predecessors Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao and their factions are starting to openly move against him.
Correct- I think if Trump is reelected, Xi's time will be short.

No collapse, just palace revolution.

But that still gives the US time to breathe and to realign its policies.
 

tehpope

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The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center (Western Pacific and Indian Oceans) has just issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for a system in the South China Sea. Looks like it could landfall in Nam/Laos/Cambodia, but could just as easily turn north. Something to watch?

View attachment 1486507
View attachment 1486509


I'm still skpetical 3DG will break. But if this cyclone reachs its peaks, we're gonna see some serious shit.
 
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