Chinese Communist Party Megathread - Cold War 2: Electric Boogaloo

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Random Internet Person

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The rivalry continues .
B75B0D09-765A-4607-BDDC-4AA20B25DB9B.jpeg
 

ShoFuKan

Cookies taste pretty good.
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Polymatter released a video on China's Debt Trap Diplomacy. Summary is instead of China being nefarious and grabbing a port in Sri Lanka for example, they've only leased it to a company that controls only 70% of it. It's not even used as a military base. The narrative around China being powerful is what they cultivate, while trying to bury the circumstances surrounding what led to it.
 
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Random Internet Person

kiwifarms.net
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Jun 28, 2019
China is just one plaster over a bigger plaster over a bigger plaster over a bigger plaster over a festering wound.

US knows this. While it may not win in direct military conflict, US pretty much knows the plaster is about to come out and China will bleed dead, so the conflict can be resolved by just waiting it out.
What makes you say that?
 

The Littlest Shitlord

diagnoses sheep with autism
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China is just one plaster over a bigger plaster over a bigger plaster over a bigger plaster over a festering wound.

US knows this. While it may not win in direct military conflict, US pretty much knows the plaster is about to come out and China will bleed dead, so the conflict can be resolved by just waiting it out.
That makes them more dangerous at the moment, as they know that they have to strike while people are still afraid of them, and we still have a senile traitor POTUS whose response to a threatened attack on the US will be to literally shit his pants.
 

Rezza

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That makes them more dangerous at the moment, as they know that they have to strike while people are still afraid of them, and we still have a senile traitor POTUS whose response to a threatened attack on the US will be to literally shit his pants.
Yup, this right here. When an authoritarian regime is threatened domestically, they will almost always try to start a conflict to get support back. Argentine, Turkey, Cambodia, it's all standard stuff
If Genshin Impact is any indication, the Chinese are getting really good at designing waifus.
If what people are saying is right, then only the designs. Their writing is shit as it turns out
 

Super-Chevy454

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There's one interesting article about the CCP one child policy unintended consequence.
December 28, 2021

China’s disastrous one-child policy is finally starting to kick in​

By Andrea Widburg

If you’re not familiar with Daniel Greenfield, who writes at FrontPage Magazine and at his own site, I am not exaggerating when I say you’re missing one of the most astute thinkers on the internet. Most recently, he’s turned his gimlet eye on the terrible effect on China of the one-child policy, when combined with urban affluence and nascent feminism.
I’ve long known that China’s one-child policy, which resulted in the abortion of up to 40 million female babies was going to have far-reaching consequences. My assumption was that women would become more valuable and be better treated but I didn’t realize that their increased value might spell the beginning of the end of the communist party.
Greenfield, however, suggests that the massive demographic imbalance, with men far outnumbering women, paired with a rising yuppie class that’s materialistic and creates women who have no interest in marriage and children, is causing a slo-mo collapse in China. This is true despite Xi Jinping’s bluster and military expenditures.
Greenfield does a deep dive into the subject but I’ll share a few of his insights. I strongly urge you to read his entire essay.
As was obvious all along, the absence of women means that they’re at a premium in the marriage market. In rural China, only the richest men can afford a wife.
However, that’s not the real problem:
But what really has the Communist elite worried is not the high price of marriage, but the growing number of professional women who aren’t interested in getting married at all.
China thought it could avoid the Soviet Union’s fate by avoiding liberalization, something it squelched with the Tiananmen Square massacre. Nevertheless, it willingly opened itself to some market forces to fund the communist state. That created materialism dangerous to any communist-based nation:
Despite the outward allegiance to Xi and the Communists, the country’s rising middle class is westernized, individualistic rather than collectivist, intent on having fun and stocking up on all the latest consumer gadgets, instead of sacrificing and laboring in the cause of Communism.
Women, especially, don’t want to be sacrificed to marriage or children. The birth rate is 1.3%, leading China, a nation of over a billion people, to add only 12 million babies in 2020—and China, unlike Western countries, isn’t getting immigration to augment its declining population.

The government is working hard and (probably) successfully, says Greenfield, to stamp out the nascent feminist movement, but it can’t stamp out the same shift in gender roles we’ve seen in the U.S.:

52.5 percent of students in Chinese colleges and universities are female. That's not quite as extreme as the 60/40 split in the United States or the even more extreme gender gaps in some European countries, but in a decade or two, China may catch up to us there as well.
Religion may be declining in America and Europe, but the Communists had done their best to stamp out faith in China and replace it with party loyalty. And then it replaced starving rural labor with mega-cities and mega-buildings filled with office drones who have no meaning or purpose in life beyond purchasing the latest iPhone, listening to the latest hit or watching the latest show.
There’s more, so please read it all because it’s all interesting. And while you’re contemplating that, think about the fact that the Chinese military may be a little more Potemkin village and a little less military than we realize. I saw an article this morning about massive corruption in the military but can’t find the link now. However, in 2018, Michael Beckley published, Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World's Sole Superpower.

A review sums up Beckley’s message, which is that the Chinese military may be huge (and, since 2018, it added a hypersonic missile) but that still may not translate into military success.

Rather than heading in the direction of rivaling the United States, China is a rapidly aging, inefficient, conflict-ridden, and relatively poor country that simply is not on the road to seriously challenging the US’s hegemony.
Even China’s huge GDP is somewhat misleading, because those resources are spread amongst over a billion people, rather than 330 million. The economy is also weak because it’s a faux market economy with the government getting into debt. And again, the book predates the possible Evergrande real estate collapse.

None of this is to say that China isn’t dangerous. A wounded or dying animal can be more dangerous than one enjoying vigorous good health. China’s weaknesses don’t mean the world’s out of the woods but they are food for thought.
 

RodgerDodger

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China is just one plaster over a bigger plaster over a bigger plaster over a bigger plaster over a festering wound.

US knows this. While it may not win in direct military conflict, US pretty much knows the plaster is about to come out and China will bleed dead, so the conflict can be resolved by just waiting it out.
They've got nearly a 20% imbalance of males to females. So millions of state created incels with no prospects of marriage. The economy is starting to tip over, which will leave said incels without the grueling tasks that occupy all of their waking hours. Historically this is a perfect formula for war. So there likely isn't any waiting it out. It's just a question of which direction this thing is gonna blow in. China looks an awful lot like Japan circa 1937. Look up the beginings of the Second Sino Japanese War and you will shudder at the current economic and social similarities. Just with the roles reversed.
 

Rezza

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Nov 6, 2020
They've got nearly a 20% imbalance of males to females. So millions of state created incels with no prospects of marriage. The economy is starting to tip over, which will leave said incels without the grueling tasks that occupy all of their waking hours. Historically this is a perfect formula for war. So there likely isn't any waiting it out. It's just a question of which direction this thing is gonna blow in. China looks an awful lot like Japan circa 1937. Look up the beginings of the Second Sino Japanese War and you will shudder at the current economic and social similarities. Just with the roles reversed.
Their nationalistic propaganda game is also eerily similar with both Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany, using ethno-nationalism with increasingly emphasizing on the racial angle especially for Chinese diaspora abroad

The question is, of course, who and when they're sending their army to?
 

teriyakiburns

Party like it's 1848
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Mar 4, 2019
They've got nearly a 20% imbalance of males to females. So millions of state created incels with no prospects of marriage. The economy is starting to tip over, which will leave said incels without the grueling tasks that occupy all of their waking hours. Historically this is a perfect formula for war. So there likely isn't any waiting it out. It's just a question of which direction this thing is gonna blow in. China looks an awful lot like Japan circa 1937. Look up the beginings of the Second Sino Japanese War and you will shudder at the current economic and social similarities. Just with the roles reversed.
China has so many territorial disputes that it's really not easy to predict where they might go off first. Taiwan is obvious, but their navy can't really support an invasion; they have grand ideas about using converted RORO ferries as troop carriers, escorted by a carrier that still wallows and leaks. Their naval doctrine appears (at least to this idiot) to be to mount multiple waves of sacrificial assaults with lightly armoured missile boats and then pray the enemy gives up before their big guns are required.
 

Random Internet Person

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The question is, of course, who and when they're sending their army to?

China has so many territorial disputes that it's really not easy to predict where they might go off first. Taiwan is obvious, but their navy can't really support an invasion; they have grand ideas about using converted RORO ferries as troop carriers, escorted by a carrier that still wallows and leaks. Their naval doctrine appears (at least to this idiot) to be to mount multiple waves of sacrificial assaults with lightly armoured missile boats and then pray the enemy gives up before their big guns are required.
I can't believe people still don't get the MO. Xi's going to just use debt traps and business backlisting (such as cutting off NBA games in CHina because Daryl Morey retweeted something in support of Hong Kong protestors) to get his way. If he ever uses the army, it'll be really too late because the country would have been put in a point where all they can do is roll out the welcome mat. And that is how a loan shark plans to take over the world.
 

RodgerDodger

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Their nationalistic propaganda game is also eerily similar with both Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany, using ethno-nationalism with increasingly emphasizing on the racial angle especially for Chinese diaspora abroad

The question is, of course, who and when they're sending their army to?
Their Military honestly wants nothing to do with Taiwan. While Cinese Naval power has risen they are not really there yet where they can wage an invasion of a fully industrialized well armed first world nation, across water. People tend to not realize just how difficult amphibious warfare is. Even the Russians at the height of Soviet Power would find an amphibious invasion tough going. China's military is built for land warfare and control of Litoral Waters around the South China Sea.

I think when the shooting starts it will be in a different direction. Possibly towards India. Assuming it doesn't begin with China rolling tanks over its own citizens again.