- Highlight
- #1
Starting this thread as I want to talk/sperg/possibly learn about it as it develops. I was hoping there would already be a thread about this, but most people are busy crying over the coof and lost elections. I want something else possibly interesting posted, so here I go. (Tho, IDK about my first posted thread being a habbenings thread)
What is happening?
TL;DR: Ethiopia's Tigray Region, which comprises its northernmost reaches is going full spearatist and as a result there is a Civil War happening right now. Talk of War crimes, genocide, Communist Separatists, and foreign meddling abound!
Articles and videos:
https://apnews.com/article/internat...ations-kenya-5becfca36751f5bccf5b21b79de1398d archive
https://apnews.com/article/race-and...nobel-prizes-cddcfc03a1b234fc3702cfc4486b0e74 archive
https://apnews.com/article/internat...a-abiy-ahmed-46ca7257fa8ac7ee91a52f05bfda59d2 archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/eth...ushing-towards-tigrayan-capital-idINKBN27Z1QT archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ded-as-conflict-rages-in-tigray-idUSKBN27Z2HU archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-ethiopian-conflict-sources-say-idUSKBN27P15A archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ficers-linked-to-tigray-leaders-idUSKBN27Y2AD archive
Why the Fuck does this shit in Ethiopia matter at all?
TL;DR: Political turmoil that could make all of East and north Africa go even more critical mass and lead to water wars. Also, International precedence makes a surprise appearance.
And so, 2020 delivers yet again, with corona chan influence to boot. Political potential for what is looking to be the start of the next foreign policy disaster for the US president from Africa. Big question is still how to the water wars start out here.
Link to relevant A&N thread:
What is happening?
TL;DR: Ethiopia's Tigray Region, which comprises its northernmost reaches is going full spearatist and as a result there is a Civil War happening right now. Talk of War crimes, genocide, Communist Separatists, and foreign meddling abound!
The Tigray region of Ethiopia is located in the North of Ethiopia. Ehtiopia itself is a heterogeneous amalgam of several different ethnicities including these Tigrayans, who comprise ~6% of the population. While they speak a language similar to the Oromo people who make up the majority of Ethiopia (both being Afro-Asiatic), their location is crucial in the context of the historical politics that shape the ongoing conflict. As the Tigrayans have a historical precedence for political prominence and influence, they took a leading role in the recent history of the region which laid the fault lines for what we are seeing happening right at this moment. Some of these fault lines are political, some are economic, and the big ones right now are Ethnic. The Tigrayans are not popular either with the Amharic peoples nor with the Oromo, who are the two largest ethnic groups in Ethiopia and have not exactly benefited from Tigrayan dominance in the country.
The Reason Tigray is even part of Ethiopia stems from the formation of the Aksumite Kingdom (Successor state to the D'mt state that eventually disintegrated), a Semitic-speaking kingdom that united what is now Ethiopia and Eritrea into the Proto-state that comprised the Tigray Region, the rest of modern Ethiopia and Eritrea, and some coastal regions of Yemen. At the time of this kingdom, the Red Sea was a crucial trade artery for seaborene goods between Ancient India, China, and Europe. As the Tigray occupied the coastal areas and their territory expanded into the Hinterlands, even as the Aksumite Kingdom fell and Medieval Ethiopia came into being, this region played a prominent role in local politics and economic activity. Political turmoil, even at this time, also played a role in destabilizing the erstwhile rivals the Tigrayans had for exerting dominance in the region, and they capitalized upon this. Such economic and political prominence in the context of Ethiopia continued until about the late 1880's under the reign of an Amharic Emperor led to the decline of their political and economic power. The successors of this emperor also enacted policies that led to regional dominance shifting away from the Tigray and to the region of Shewa, which houses the modern capital city of Addis Ababa. This lays the foundations for the current conflict in establishing the precedent for the Tigrayans expecting to have a much more prominent role in modern Ethiopia than they currently do, and sets the tone for their contemporary relations with the Ethiopian federal government.
Following a succession of Emperors, Ethioipia in 1974 experienced a communist revolution headed by a group called the Derg. The Derg (the name of which is Semitic in origin, and thus closer to the Amharics) started as a general military mutiny against rapidly detriorating conditions experienced by the soldiers of the Ethiopian Armed Forces. They then coalesced into a political force of their own separate from the government, and after several conscessions from the Ethiopian Imperial government designed to appease them, they deposed and arrested the emperor. Following this, they formed a transitional government that was, as is typical with many of these movements, racked by political instability. In 1975, the Derg declared their ideology to be Marxism-Lenninism and Launched a revolution, taking control of all of Ethiopia. It is important to note that also formed at this time was the Tigray People's Liberation Front. A separate Marxist-Lenninist Group that ended up opposing the Derg because they decided that the Derg weren't REAL Socialists and that they did not represent a unifying force sufficient resolve the various issues with the ideation of Ethiopian national identity.
Relations between the TPLF and the Derg never normalized, tand the TPLF went on to unite opposition parties to form the EPRDF (Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front) even as the Derg officially dissolved and proclaimed a communist government. Then ensued a civil war from 1974-1991, with the TPLF playing a major role leading EPRDF forces against the government.Eventually, the EPRDF was successful and established a Federal Democratic Republic. Since 1991, the political fractiousness of Ethiopia has famously continued. In particular, many of the country's formerly open communist parties have shut it all down since the fall of the Soviet Union. With Communist China on the rise, however, there will almost certainly be a resurgence in these movements as the vy for Chinese favor. Fuelling the current conflict, however is that in the interim between 1991 and the civil war that started last week, TPLF leaders have widely been accused of corruption, embezzlement and a laundry list of other typical actions of a tinpot 3rd world administration. Nevertheless, until these last few elections the government has been led by Tigrayans, playing again into a historical precedence for Tigrayan dominance in the politics of Ethiopia, much to the rising resentment of other Ethiopian Ethnic groups, notably the Amharics and Oromos who constitute the majority of the country. With the election of Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo ethnic leader, there were ethnic clashes in the South of the country between the Oromo people and neighboring Somalis and Gedeos. This unrest was blamed on Ahmed for his policies that seemed to favor Oromo nationalist groups that participated in these calshes and had been banned by Tigrayan-led governments. All of this came to a head in the loveley year of 2020 with the government attempting to cancel the elections because of Corona-Chan. The TPLF refused to cancel their elections and trhe federal government refused to recognize the results of these elections, resulting in the federal government sending in troop and the TPLF taking up arms and starting a revolt. Welcome to the Ethiopian Civil War of 2020.
The Reason Tigray is even part of Ethiopia stems from the formation of the Aksumite Kingdom (Successor state to the D'mt state that eventually disintegrated), a Semitic-speaking kingdom that united what is now Ethiopia and Eritrea into the Proto-state that comprised the Tigray Region, the rest of modern Ethiopia and Eritrea, and some coastal regions of Yemen. At the time of this kingdom, the Red Sea was a crucial trade artery for seaborene goods between Ancient India, China, and Europe. As the Tigray occupied the coastal areas and their territory expanded into the Hinterlands, even as the Aksumite Kingdom fell and Medieval Ethiopia came into being, this region played a prominent role in local politics and economic activity. Political turmoil, even at this time, also played a role in destabilizing the erstwhile rivals the Tigrayans had for exerting dominance in the region, and they capitalized upon this. Such economic and political prominence in the context of Ethiopia continued until about the late 1880's under the reign of an Amharic Emperor led to the decline of their political and economic power. The successors of this emperor also enacted policies that led to regional dominance shifting away from the Tigray and to the region of Shewa, which houses the modern capital city of Addis Ababa. This lays the foundations for the current conflict in establishing the precedent for the Tigrayans expecting to have a much more prominent role in modern Ethiopia than they currently do, and sets the tone for their contemporary relations with the Ethiopian federal government.
Following a succession of Emperors, Ethioipia in 1974 experienced a communist revolution headed by a group called the Derg. The Derg (the name of which is Semitic in origin, and thus closer to the Amharics) started as a general military mutiny against rapidly detriorating conditions experienced by the soldiers of the Ethiopian Armed Forces. They then coalesced into a political force of their own separate from the government, and after several conscessions from the Ethiopian Imperial government designed to appease them, they deposed and arrested the emperor. Following this, they formed a transitional government that was, as is typical with many of these movements, racked by political instability. In 1975, the Derg declared their ideology to be Marxism-Lenninism and Launched a revolution, taking control of all of Ethiopia. It is important to note that also formed at this time was the Tigray People's Liberation Front. A separate Marxist-Lenninist Group that ended up opposing the Derg because they decided that the Derg weren't REAL Socialists and that they did not represent a unifying force sufficient resolve the various issues with the ideation of Ethiopian national identity.
Relations between the TPLF and the Derg never normalized, tand the TPLF went on to unite opposition parties to form the EPRDF (Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front) even as the Derg officially dissolved and proclaimed a communist government. Then ensued a civil war from 1974-1991, with the TPLF playing a major role leading EPRDF forces against the government.Eventually, the EPRDF was successful and established a Federal Democratic Republic. Since 1991, the political fractiousness of Ethiopia has famously continued. In particular, many of the country's formerly open communist parties have shut it all down since the fall of the Soviet Union. With Communist China on the rise, however, there will almost certainly be a resurgence in these movements as the vy for Chinese favor. Fuelling the current conflict, however is that in the interim between 1991 and the civil war that started last week, TPLF leaders have widely been accused of corruption, embezzlement and a laundry list of other typical actions of a tinpot 3rd world administration. Nevertheless, until these last few elections the government has been led by Tigrayans, playing again into a historical precedence for Tigrayan dominance in the politics of Ethiopia, much to the rising resentment of other Ethiopian Ethnic groups, notably the Amharics and Oromos who constitute the majority of the country. With the election of Abiy Ahmed, an Oromo ethnic leader, there were ethnic clashes in the South of the country between the Oromo people and neighboring Somalis and Gedeos. This unrest was blamed on Ahmed for his policies that seemed to favor Oromo nationalist groups that participated in these calshes and had been banned by Tigrayan-led governments. All of this came to a head in the loveley year of 2020 with the government attempting to cancel the elections because of Corona-Chan. The TPLF refused to cancel their elections and trhe federal government refused to recognize the results of these elections, resulting in the federal government sending in troop and the TPLF taking up arms and starting a revolt. Welcome to the Ethiopian Civil War of 2020.
Articles and videos:
https://apnews.com/article/internat...ations-kenya-5becfca36751f5bccf5b21b79de1398d archive
https://apnews.com/article/race-and...nobel-prizes-cddcfc03a1b234fc3702cfc4486b0e74 archive
https://apnews.com/article/internat...a-abiy-ahmed-46ca7257fa8ac7ee91a52f05bfda59d2 archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/eth...ushing-towards-tigrayan-capital-idINKBN27Z1QT archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ded-as-conflict-rages-in-tigray-idUSKBN27Z2HU archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-ethiopian-conflict-sources-say-idUSKBN27P15A archive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ficers-linked-to-tigray-leaders-idUSKBN27Y2AD archive
Why the Fuck does this shit in Ethiopia matter at all?
TL;DR: Political turmoil that could make all of East and north Africa go even more critical mass and lead to water wars. Also, International precedence makes a surprise appearance.
Geopolitics.
There is currently an international dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopian ambitions to dam the Blue Nile river, which feeds the Nile, for hydroelectric power. Such an ambition has the overall goal of both providing electric power to fuel Ethiopia's continued development as a regional economy, and to generate power to be sold to surrounding states. Egypt, however, fears both the reduction in flow from the Blue Nile River and the precedent it could set for other nations along the Nile river. The Nile is the major source of water, and especially drinking water for Egypt, and any reduction in the flow of that water into the country would have disastrous agricultural and socio-economic consequences. Even worse, the nations along the so-called White Nile could take precedent from Ethiopia and reduce this flow further with more dam projects, should the precedence that these nations have total free reign to do so. This precedence is also being followed with interest in East Asia. China, with its territorial claims in Tibet, controls much of India's water suppllies in the form of multiple rivers that flow from Tibet into India. Also affected in this are nations like Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand. and other SouthEast Asian nations. If Ethiopia gets off scot free with damming the Nile, there will be serious implications and consequences for the geopolitics of East Asia. This is where the USA and other nations will need ot pay attention and possibly work on sanctioning/otherwise interfering with this particular situation.
This Civil War represents a possibility of total destabilization of Ethiopia, and could lead to the Use of the TPLF for Egyptian Political ends in the region. Further, this conflict has implications for how the precendence mentioned before could play out. If Ethiopia stabilizes quickly, it could push ahead with this precedence unhindered, to Egypt's detriment and setting an international precedent to be exploiuted by China. However, If Ethiopia de-stabilizes this possibility for a precedent goes out the window and we could potentially see the region go into a much more major state of conflict than it is already in.
And, of course, in the background is the Chinese question. China has massive inffluence in Ethiopia with regard to its domestic policies and its internal economic development. It is all but guaranteed that Chinese firms and administrators are working closely with the Federal government
There is currently an international dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt over Ethiopian ambitions to dam the Blue Nile river, which feeds the Nile, for hydroelectric power. Such an ambition has the overall goal of both providing electric power to fuel Ethiopia's continued development as a regional economy, and to generate power to be sold to surrounding states. Egypt, however, fears both the reduction in flow from the Blue Nile River and the precedent it could set for other nations along the Nile river. The Nile is the major source of water, and especially drinking water for Egypt, and any reduction in the flow of that water into the country would have disastrous agricultural and socio-economic consequences. Even worse, the nations along the so-called White Nile could take precedent from Ethiopia and reduce this flow further with more dam projects, should the precedence that these nations have total free reign to do so. This precedence is also being followed with interest in East Asia. China, with its territorial claims in Tibet, controls much of India's water suppllies in the form of multiple rivers that flow from Tibet into India. Also affected in this are nations like Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand. and other SouthEast Asian nations. If Ethiopia gets off scot free with damming the Nile, there will be serious implications and consequences for the geopolitics of East Asia. This is where the USA and other nations will need ot pay attention and possibly work on sanctioning/otherwise interfering with this particular situation.
This Civil War represents a possibility of total destabilization of Ethiopia, and could lead to the Use of the TPLF for Egyptian Political ends in the region. Further, this conflict has implications for how the precendence mentioned before could play out. If Ethiopia stabilizes quickly, it could push ahead with this precedence unhindered, to Egypt's detriment and setting an international precedent to be exploiuted by China. However, If Ethiopia de-stabilizes this possibility for a precedent goes out the window and we could potentially see the region go into a much more major state of conflict than it is already in.
And, of course, in the background is the Chinese question. China has massive inffluence in Ethiopia with regard to its domestic policies and its internal economic development. It is all but guaranteed that Chinese firms and administrators are working closely with the Federal government
And so, 2020 delivers yet again, with corona chan influence to boot. Political potential for what is looking to be the start of the next foreign policy disaster for the US president from Africa. Big question is still how to the water wars start out here.
Link to relevant A&N thread:
