Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
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A few months ago, at the height of the GME craze, I made a thread where I essentially began to spaz out over the massive flows of money I saw heading into the crypto market and out of the US Dollar. At this time, I was only beginning to put my toe in the water of Crypto's, but since then I have pulled all of my money out of the Stock Market, leaving only my IRA and Mutual fund alone. I've also begun converting all my paychecks (after bills) into various Crypto's. Primarily BAT and Ethereum. The reason why I am doing this is because I see unprecedented systemic issues that don't just effect one part of the economy. They effect ALL parts of the economy. Including the value of the dollar bills in your pants pocket. I am writing this thread, partially to get my own thoughts on the matter straight, and too see if there is any kind of consensus with these ideas here or whether I am completely off base.

THE BOND MARKET

Lets just jump right into. The corporate and government Bond market. The yield on Government debt is now At its lowest point in over a century. You would have to go back to the 19th century in order to find yields this low. I find that this graph is the most illuminating.

1616940791863.png
At first glance you may think "well, this is a good thing, right?" If the yield is low, sure the bond holders won't make any money, but the governments borrowing ability is not as expensive as it could be. Which should be "good" considering how much it is borrowing. Right? No. We need to remember just how it is the government is "borrowing" this money. Its doing it in Fiat. Money the Federal Reserve is just printing and then handing out. Under normal market conditions. The yield acts as a braking mechanism on printing too much, as it essentially "destroys" extra and inefficient amounts of loose cash. Its the primary method by which the Federal Reserve historically prevented inflation. The money supply cannot inflate because the bond holders, of which the Fed is the largest one, get to take back a percentage of the money created and then loaned to the Government. But with rates so astronomically low this necessary guardrail has been blasted right on through. The money supply is increasing without check, aided by massive government borrowing. But what is the Government doing with that money?

Corporate Bonds.

By late 2020, US corporate debt had ballooned to 10.5 trillion, and has only increased since. Much of this debt was put into highly rated companies that qualified for issuing bonds at low yield. The issue here though is such rating were based upon pre corona market conditions. Disney was an A- company as an example, and they have hardly any revenue at the moment. Leading to a recent downgrade to BBB+, well on the way to junk status. But this did not stop Disney from taking out loans to the tune of 11 Billion dollars in March 2020, 5 Billion dollars in April 2020, and then ANOTHER 11 Billion in May of 2020. Absolutely bonkers. Even worse however, is even as Disney runs up the red ink and starts to crash its value, it borrowed all this money using its position pre corona virus. Meaning it did so by issuing investment grade bonds. Bonds with very low yields, matched closely to the yield on the US Treasury note which is trading at century level lows.

If you are an owner of some of this Disney debt, its probably making your hair curl. The return is at a record low not seen in a hundred years, but the risks are increasing at a massive rate. Rates not priced into the value of the Bond. What do you do? You sell it. The Disney debt gets securitized, and sold to someone else, probably a bank. You will take a hit at first as they will insist paying less then what the Bond is worth (they want a profit too), but this is okay as you now have hard cash that you can invest in STONKS which are doing really good right now. Plow all that shit into Tesla and you will make your initial loss on the Disney debt back in no time! Now, this may inflate Teslas stock a little but eh, its just one drop of water in the ocean.

But the problem is its not just YOU doing this. Because remember, corporate debt has ballooned to 10.5 TRILLION. All of the companies have been taking out massive debts to get them through the coronavirus pandemic. Oh, and one more thing. Who the fuck had the free cash to buy your Disney bonds off you in the first place. Probably a bank. And where did the bank get the money? The Federal Reserve gave it to them. And where did the Federal Reserve get that money? They created it. With pixie dust and rainbows. And why are the Banks going along with it when they know they will just sell off all that corporate debt as soon as they issue it? Easy. The government told them to do it, and is even turning around and buying some of the corporate debt itself. That is what much of the "stimulus" is.

This does two things. It keeps the Bond Yields stupid low. Since the money printer is insuring SOMEONE will issue and back the debt, there is no market pressure to increase yields until someone is convinced to take the risk on the company and issue it a loan. It also means that the value of these companies borrowing is decreasing in a way that is not backed by normal market conditions. With the end result that all that money printer money is ending up in the stock market all at once, rather then slowly moving for a 10-30 year period of time.

STOCK MARKET BUBBLE

With all this free money flowing from the Fed, through the Bond Market and into the Stock Market, we have created an unprecedented asset bubble. I am going to use Carnival Cruise Lines as an example of this because its just so perfect.

Screenshot_2021-03-28 carnival cruise stock - Google Search.png

You can see on its 5 year trend line where the Rona began to really hurt. By April 3rd the stock had fallen to 8 dollars. And since then anyone who invested at the low on April 3rd have made 3x their investment. This growth and recovery was done over a period of time in which Carnival had hardly any operating revenue at all, and was racking up massive debts maintaining their fleet of beached white elephants. Oh yeah, and a few weeks ago, Carnival borrowed another 3.5 Billion Dollars to keep their fleet afloat. After a year of no money, massive debts, there stock is up 3x on their low and they managed to borrow over 3 billion dollars at a modest 5.75% rate. Investment grade rather then junk. Literally how?

You see this playing out all over the market. Stocks that should not be worth what they are, seemingly defying gravity and sitting at all time record highs. Just look at the S&P

1616943351279.png

What I find fascinating is the massive correlation between the track of the overall market, and Carnivals stock. Huge crash at the end of march, and then a dizzying return back up to the present day. When charts track so closely like that, you begin to suspect an underlying correlation, and I am probably preaching to the choir here, but that underlying thing almost certainly has to be a massive amount of free money flowing out of the Bond Market. I know everyone probably wants to point the finger at the Trump and Biden bucks, but those do not hold a candle to what is happening here. That is billions of dollars. This is TRILLIONS.

DISASTER

I think what we are facing here is a dreaded "Everything" bubble. Removal of regulatory safeguards and over financialization of the entire economy has integrated the Bond Market at every level. Something that has traditionally not happened before. Because the idea of selling debt you own is a very recent phenomena. It used to be if you issued a loan, you had to sit and wait for the person who you gave the loan too to pay you back before you could turn around and use your earnings. Now though you can loan money to Disney and then immediately turn around and sell that loan to someone else. Or securitize it and use it back other things you are doing. Even count it as an "asset" for when you want to borrow money yourself. It creates a vicious snowball rolling down the hill, and the Federal Reserve is miles and miles of pristine snow ready to feed it and make it bigger and bigger.

This means EVERY asset class is increasing in value completely unmoored to actual market conditions. Including the US Dollar itself. People have been wondering "where is the inflation", because all common sense indicates that all this free money should cause inflation. Well, the inflation is occurring. In the amount of Bonds. In the value of stocks. That is where the inflation is and it is absolutely eyewatering. And thanks to the financial Jiu Jitsu of the Fed, the US Dollar is covering it all. Which means that the value of the dollar has likewise increased to accommodate the new higher prices. Also completely unmoored to basic financial realities. I also question just how clear even the Fed is anymore on just where all the money actually is. I don't think they know. They CAN'T know. Who owns whose debts when debt can be sold, traded, securitized, and passed through any number of hands? This is what blew up the economy in 2008, and in that case it was just in the housing market. This time its ALL the Markets. Not just housing. All these banks are playing a game of hot potato with increasingly bad corporate and government debts, but the moment the music looks like its about to stop and one of the banks is holding the potato, the Federal Reserve swoops in, buys the potato, and restarts the music.

But this means there is a huge pile of potatoes accumulating, and I am very afraid of what this might mean. If this is an "Everything" bubble, even traditional safe havens like Gold and Silver won't be entirely safe. I would like to think Crypto Currency is safe, but I have serious questions there too when we consider the price of Bitcoin.

1616944359134.png

For all the claims that Crypto is unmoored from the traditional economy, its trend line in 2020 pretty much mirrored everything else. A Crash in late March 2020, and then a steady rise. Where it unmoored was at the start of 2021 when it suddenly began a meteoric rise. This coincided with a sudden stampede of institutional money into Crypto's. And my Storm Warning thread. This also means I fear even the Cryptos now have massive exposure to the Everything Bubble. Because if the music stops for good, this institutional money may very well try and sell off their Cryptos to try and stay afloat. And that means a massive crash in the value of BTC, and ETH. Long term, I think both will recover, especially if trust in the financial system is shattered. But the short term trend line will be an absolute fucking massacre. If the inflation of the US Dollar also starts to manifest in a big way at the same time, trying to convert to cash may not be ideal either. I've been trying to think of what might conceivably be safe in this scenario and nothing is really coming to me outside of Land, Canned Beans, a Gun, and plenty of ammunition.

CONCLUSION

Having thought this through now, I have concluded we are fucked. I just cannot say when we will notice how fucked we are. Japan has managed to juggle Quantitative Easing for decades now as a means to unwind a massive asset bubble. But this was aided by the fact that it was just one country. Now however the Asset bubble is global. Consider the ghost cities in China. There are no true safe havens in the developed world. Ironically this probably means investing in Companies in Africa may actually be the safest things right now as their capital and goods are located in countries with the least exposure to what is going on. Fruit plantations, gold and diamond mines and the like. Stuff with hard assets in countries that would actually benefit if the US Bond market imploded. Suddenly all their government debt denominated in US Petro dollars would be so much paper. Cryptos may also be safe, long term, but they like everything else are caught up in the Asset Bubble right now. Newer and undervalued Cryptos with actual utility like BAT may be better bets then Bitcoin as we head into whatever is about to happen. They will lose value too, but since they have not been as overly capitalized as BTC means they have far less distance to fall.

And who knows, maybe the Federal Reserve can figure out a way to unwind this ball of yarn. But I seriously doubt it.
 
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Marissa Moira

kiwifarms.net
And who knows, maybe the Federal Reserve can figure out a way to unwind this ball of yarn. But I seriously doubt it.
The way we got fiat currency in the first place is that any inconvenient truths get paved over and the people in charge just say 'trust us this is going to work".

So I see no course correction from that, because it's worked so far.
 

Arm Pit Cream

5%er, Jupiterian Philosopher, Anglophobe, CSIS
True & Honest Fan
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Because remember, corporate debt has ballooned to 10.5 TRILLION. All of the companies have been taking out massive debts to get them through the coronavirus pandemic.
I think what we are facing here is a dreaded "Everything" bubble
Damn, would have been nice if Trump didn't bail out McDonalds and BlackRock with trillions, but putting conditions on the money you give out is literal socialism, God forbid that.
 

Carlos Weston Chantor

Experienced For Her Pleasure
kiwifarms.net
I have been working in crypto professionally, I have collaborated with 100+ crypto projects over the years. As someone who's main source of income is making fools part with their money through crypto I would strongly discourage anyone from putting money in there long-term (short term too - if you want to actually make money with crypto the only way is through starting your own crypto project)

If you have too much money on your hands just keep buying more gold
 

DumbDude42

kiwifarms.net
since then I have pulled all of my money out of the Stock Market, leaving only my IRA and Mutual fund alone. I've also begun converting all my paychecks (after bills) into various Crypto's.
why? in case of actual full scale economic collapse, nobody will be trading for crypto in the real world, they'll be bartering using consumer goods.

i guess if your plan is to flee the country then having crypto will make it easier to get started in another country if you find someone who'll trade local currency for your crypto, and getting crypto across borders is a lot easier than smuggling heavy bars of gold without attracting negative attention from authorities (or criminals)
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
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why? in case of actual full scale economic collapse, nobody will be trading for crypto in the real world, they'll be bartering using consumer goods.

i guess if your plan is to flee the country then having crypto will make it easier to get started in another country if you find someone who'll trade local currency for your crypto, and getting crypto across borders is a lot easier than smuggling heavy bars of gold without attracting negative attention from authorities (or criminals)

Not expecting full on societal collapse. Society itself is pretty resilient. I am however deeply concerned about the stock market and debt market. I basically wanted to lock in my gains over 2020 in a safer place. Under those circumstances just converting into cash would be okay, but I don't trust the value of the dollar atm. And I am pretty confident Gold and Silver are also caught up in the asset bubble too, though less sure about that. I don't really see Crypto as safe. More "safer". But not Bitcoin. Holy hell the amount of exposure BTC has to this is bad, especially with banks and corporations adding it to their balance sheets at eye watering prices.

I might actually take my own musing and invest in that banana corporation in Ghana. Just have to figure out how the fuck i go about doing that...
 

Liber Pater

#IStandWithJurgenConings
kiwifarms.net
I have been working in crypto professionally, I have collaborated with 100+ crypto projects over the years. As someone who's main source of income is making fools part with their money through crypto I would strongly discourage anyone from putting money in there long-term (short term too - if you want to actually make money with crypto the only way is through starting your own crypto project)

If you have too much money on your hands just keep buying more gold
Is this your opinion on DeFi as well? I lend out my DAI at interest, and this largely insulates me from exposure to the price fluctuations of major cryptos.
 

Lone MacReady

Adolf - Enemy of the Habsburgs
kiwifarms.net
maybe the Federal Reserve can figure out a way to unwind this ball of yarn. But I seriously doubt it.
The Federal Reserve (Private Bank not beholden to anyone) are the very progenitors of all our current ills. Or rather what they were created to do. Though fucked, the system was still Gold-backed up until Nixon took the US, and subsequently the world, off of it in 1971. You have been knowingly robbed of both purchasing power and upward economic mobility over decades. Actually, it's worse than that since concurrent to these events the Bankers have been hoarding all the physical Gold and Silver the plebs got rid of. In their race to transact with Fiat debt notes, the plebs have essentially fucked themselves (and their families) in what has been the largest wealth transfer in human history.
uci2gx4808h61.jpg
 
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Carlos Weston Chantor

Experienced For Her Pleasure
kiwifarms.net
Is this your opinion on DeFi as well? I lend out my DAI at interest, and this largely insulates me from exposure to the price fluctuations of major cryptos.

Look up FATF's new 90+ pages regulations proposition specifically targeting defi. When the CBDCs are ready to launch worldwide (and 70% of central banks in the world admitted working on CBDCs) they will start fucking with crypto to remove competition. SWIFT's deal with the EU is ending in a few years so the governments are working hard on developing CBDCs, and in the countries where the work on CBDCs is most advanced crypto is already banned, is in the process of getting banned, or calls to ban it start.

The problem with crypto is not volatility or anything like that, it's that one day the IRS will just fuck you in the ass and take 50% or more of your crypto income and there won't be anything you can do because crypto is technologically pure surveillance

It's already almost impossible to buy and sell btc without kyc/aml (localbitcoins is shit and nobody actually uses bisq, and you still usually have to use some kyc/aml payment processor with these). Centralized exchanges are banning accounts left and right - all they have to do is say your bitcoins are "dirty" and were used to "finance terrorism" or "launder money".

In few years only hedge funds banks and investment firms will hold bitcoin in their treasuries, and people will be required to have a license to trade it like nowadays you need a license to trade stocks. There's literally nothing stopping the governments from doing that, bitcoin is the easiest shit to regulate and censor

tl;dr crypto niggers think the government will just let them become millionaires with magic internet money, but it won't happen
 

2WokeB4BrainPills

doc said I was just 2 damn woke
kiwifarms.net
Look up FATF's new 90+ pages regulations proposition specifically targeting defi. When the CBDCs are ready to launch worldwide (and 70% of central banks in the world admitted working on CBDCs) they will start fucking with crypto to remove competition. SWIFT's deal with the EU is ending in a few years so the governments are working hard on developing CBDCs, and in the countries where the work on CBDCs is most advanced crypto is already banned, is in the process of getting banned, or calls to ban it start.

The problem with crypto is not volatility or anything like that, it's that one day the IRS will just fuck you in the ass and take 50% or more of your crypto income and there won't be anything you can do because crypto is technologically pure surveillance

It's already almost impossible to buy and sell btc without kyc/aml (localbitcoins is shit and nobody actually uses bisq, and you still usually have to use some kyc/aml payment processor with these). Centralized exchanges are banning accounts left and right - all they have to do is say your bitcoins are "dirty" and were used to "finance terrorism" or "launder money".

In few years only hedge funds banks and investment firms will hold bitcoin in their treasuries, and people will be required to have a license to trade it like nowadays you need a license to trade stocks. There's literally nothing stopping the governments from doing that, bitcoin is the easiest shit to regulate and censor

tl;dr crypto niggers think the government will just let them become millionaires with magic internet money, but it won't happen

Agree, the consolidation of mining and custodial wallet systems have given governments easy points of attack to totally subvert the original purpose of crypto. They will continue to wield taxes as a weapon against it, and will almost certainly use it as a cattle-chute to funnel retail into the CBDC negative-interest slaughterhouses.

Beyond the sovereign threat, there is also the issue of tether and exchange manipulation. When the price of an asset is pumped buy a few whales taking on insane leverage to pump and dump, or wash traded by insiders, you don't have anything approaching real supply/demand mechanics and price discovery. Crypto is anything but a safe harbor. You'd have to be nuts to put more than 5-10% allocation to it IMO.
 

Erika Furudo

Me an intellectual 🎶
kiwifarms.net
The problem with crypto is not volatility or anything like that, it's that one day the IRS will just fuck you in the ass and take 50% or more of your crypto income and there won't be anything you can do because crypto is technologically pure surveillance
What about shit like monero?

If the government wanted to couldn't they fuck you over on anything? Lnad has been confiscated in the past. Gold too. FIAT is their currency and crypto they can ban. If they want to fuck you, and control you, they will.
My biggest issue with crypto is the fact that most of this shit is digital, tracable and lots of places require ID to obtain and trade. It's really not much different to a cashless society dystopia, excluding shit like monero.
 

Carlos Weston Chantor

Experienced For Her Pleasure
kiwifarms.net
What about shit like monero?

If the government wanted to couldn't they fuck you over on anything? Lnad has been confiscated in the past. Gold too. FIAT is their currency and crypto they can ban. If they want to fuck you, and control you, they will.
My biggest issue with crypto is the fact that most of this shit is digital, tracable and lots of places require ID to obtain and trade. It's really not much different to a cashless society dystopia, excluding shit like monero.
Monero is the only shit I endorse and recommend. Monero and Bitcoin are the only cryptocurrencies which are actually being used for what cryptocurrencies were invented to do, only Monero is much more resilient technologically while Bitcoin is already halfway there to becoming a completely cucked Bankcoin

Gold & silver you can simply dig a hole in the ground and put it there - good luck to the government niggers trying to find it. And you will ALWAYS be able to sell or trade off that gold and silver, no matter what
 

Erika Furudo

Me an intellectual 🎶
kiwifarms.net
Monero is the only shit I endorse and recommend. Monero and Bitcoin are the only cryptocurrencies which are actually being used for what cryptocurrencies were invented to do, only Monero is much more resilient technologically while Bitcoin is already halfway there to becoming a completely cucked Bankcoin

Gold & silver you can simply dig a hole in the ground and put it there - good luck to the government niggers trying to find it. And you will ALWAYS be able to sell or trade off that gold and silver, no matter what
I would argue shit like Etherium has more value than bitcoin given it has an actual function attatched to it. Bitcoin is only really kept alive by faith, and even then most people don't seem to realise it's not private and is actually inferior to fiat cash on this angle. Personally I think crypto will be increasingly regulated and seperate into the legal stuff requiring KYC, and the illegal stuff which will only be used in a peer to peer manner with no function outside of some shady niche.

Gold and silver issue is that most people don't really know their value and you can't cleanly divide thing sup into pieces unless you buy fractional stuff, so you either buy more than needed or lose value selling an ounce for under an ounce. I think people stacking metals will burn through things pretty quickly.
 

Carlos Weston Chantor

Experienced For Her Pleasure
kiwifarms.net
I would argue shit like Etherium has more value than bitcoin given it has an actual function attatched to it. Bitcoin is only really kept alive by faith, and even then most people don't seem to realise it's not private and is actually inferior to fiat cash on this angle. Personally I think crypto will be increasingly regulated and seperate into the legal stuff requiring KYC, and the illegal stuff which will only be used in a peer to peer manner with no function outside of some shady niche.

Gold and silver issue is that most people don't really know their value and you can't cleanly divide thing sup into pieces unless you buy fractional stuff, so you either buy more than needed or lose value selling an ounce for under an ounce. I think people stacking metals will burn through things pretty quickly.
Ethereum is extremely vulnerable. I don't even talk about the fact at the height of the defi craze the eth fees were hilariously high and people are already migrating to things like binance smart chain. Ethereum is vulnerable as fuck by design.

After the shitshow you had with the "capitol building storming" in the US, Ethereum developers were sperging ultra hard on twitter saying that Ethereum is fully suitable to fight "white supremacy" and that it would be easy to remove "white supremacist" projects from the network and censor them altogether. Ethereum is pure fucking centralized shit, if I wanted a payment platform that will censor me for saying "nigger" I'd use paypal

Also do I even have to mention that real money should not have a public founder and spokesperson? Vitalik Buterin is so fucking autistic that I remember him literally publicly sperging about something like lolicon legality or age of consent on his twitter in the past. Literally all it takes to tank the ethereum network is for a hostile third party to plant some cp on the computer of buterin's and maybe some other ethereum foundation members - that shit would collapse like a house of cards because nobody would want to be associated with a pedocoin

Yes, eth has a "real use case", but that use case is literally just selling glass beads and shiny pebbles to niggers, and nothing else. It's a definition of a bubble because one day the niggers will be left with no more money to buy shiny pebbles with, or they will simply find other pebbles that are more shiny. The governments could also at any day decide that memeing niggers into selling cars and houses to buy shiny pebbles is "unethical", and ethereum will be over
 

Erika Furudo

Me an intellectual 🎶
kiwifarms.net
Ethereum is extremely vulnerable. I don't even talk about the fact at the height of the defi craze the eth fees were hilariously high and people are already migrating to things like binance smart chain. Ethereum is vulnerable as fuck by design.

After the shitshow you had with the "capitol building storming" in the US, Ethereum developers were sperging ultra hard on twitter saying that Ethereum is fully suitable to fight "white supremacy" and that it would be easy to remove "white supremacist" projects from the network and censor them altogether. Ethereum is pure fucking centralized shit, if I wanted a payment platform that will censor me for saying "nigger" I'd use paypal

Also do I even have to mention that real money should not have a public founder and spokesperson? Vitalik Buterin is so fucking autistic that I remember him literally publicly sperging about something like lolicon legality or age of consent on his twitter in the past. Literally all it takes to tank the ethereum network is for a hostile third party to plant some cp on the computer of buterin's and maybe some other ethereum foundation members - that shit would collapse like a house of cards because nobody would want to be associated with a pedocoin

Yes, eth has a "real use case", but that use case is literally just selling glass beads and shiny pebbles to niggers, and nothing else. It's a definition of a bubble because one day the niggers will be left with no more money to buy shiny pebbles with, or they will simply find other pebbles that are more shiny. The governments could also at any day decide that memeing niggers into selling cars and houses to buy shiny pebbles is "unethical", and ethereum will be over
Ok since you're invested in crypto, what makes bitcoin different to ETH? The last paragraph applies to crypto in general, I just think Eth having a function gives it extra value. I'm sure there are other useful, functional crypto out there, and just by having a function they are more stable than bitcoin imo.
I'm also curious to see what happens to bitcoin when everything is mined, I can't see people running the blockchain when there is no payout.
 

Carlos Weston Chantor

Experienced For Her Pleasure
kiwifarms.net
Ok since you're invested in crypto, what makes bitcoin different to ETH? The last paragraph applies to crypto in general, I just think Eth having a function gives it extra value. I'm sure there are other useful, functional crypto out there, and just by having a function they are more stable than bitcoin imo.
I'm also curious to see what happens to bitcoin when everything is mined, I can't see people running the blockchain when there is no payout.
Lmao don't worry about the last bitcoin that will be mined in 2140, bitcoin will be unusable by 2024 - censored to the extreme, taxed like any other asset, streamlined through centralized exchanges, and any btc will be able to be censored as a "dirty bitcoin" due to fears of "terrorist funding" and "money laundering". In countries where bitcoin will still be legal you will need a license to trade it like you now do to trade stocks, and most btc will be held in treasuries of banks and investment funds

Saying that bitcoin doesn't have a use case is incorrect tho, being a store of value is a very useful use case, much better that being a platform to launch scams which is the only use case of ethereum. It's precisely because bitcoin has a nice use case of being a good store of value that the governments will censor it to hell and back, and make sure that ordinary people can't benefit from it anymore
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Really, is anyone even "using" bitcoin as a currency now?
Like all cryptos all I really see is a speculative store of value. Every effort to "do something" with it is niche. Other then Ether anyway. People ARE doing alot of shit with Ether through DeFi. It's not immune to this over speculation in assets though. Neither is Gold or Silver for that matter. The value of all assets are being pumped by all this free money.
 

Ghost In The Rain

I'll die before I surrender, Tim.
kiwifarms.net
Really, is anyone even "using" bitcoin as a currency now?
It is still the default means of payment in the darknet markets, and the number of random clean businesses that accept it as payment are on the rise. My stack of 'just in case' silver was all paid for with bitcoin, not just in the sense that I bought it all with a fraction of the profits I was cashing out but also in the literal sense that the dealer I used not only took bitcoin but did so at a much lower payment premium than credit/debit. Which is a perfect example of something that should be pushed more if crypto wants to really take off: businesses stating prices and payment method premiums separately. As much as people like to bitch about transaction fees in crypto, they're still tiny compared to the costs credit cards place on their usage.

The lack of value stability for crypto stops it from becoming a full fledged proper currency, but with more and more people doubting the stability of fiat I think it is all on the cusp of becoming a crapshoot. I took a look at the google trends for 'Inflation' recently and interest has spiked over the past few months to the highest google had ever seen: And while the top 'related search' was still Sonic the hedgehog, all the others indicated that the population at large is worried about economic inflation. Once people are worried about it they're going to not want to sit on dollars, and that decrease in the demand for dollars might be one hell of a feedback loop. Throw that in at a time when public unrest, trust in government, trust in the media, and public unity are all shot completely to hell and we could be in store for.... 'interesting times'. I wouldn't trust anyone who thinks they know what that means. I'm just happy I'll get to enjoy it from a place that is one hell of a net exporter of food.
 
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