Current issues with the market - Any ideas on avoiding the end?

knobslobbin

survivorship bias
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Yeah but what if the blood doesn't go away until the bull comes back out in several years?

(What if it keeps going down)
Inflation isn't going away anytime soon. That doesn't change the fact that crypto is still pure speculation, but like rats fleeing a sinking ship where else are we supposed to go? Gold don't float (that market is still manipulated to hell and back)
 

Save Goober

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Welp, phase 1 of me locking down my finances has been cleared. Now the proud owner of a house and acre of land well outside the city. Got a great fixed interest rate too. My mortgage payment will also be 20% less then what I am doing for rent right now.

Phase 2 will now be asset accumulation.
Congrats! It seems like you sold your crypto at the right time and things are going well. You've earned it.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Congrats! It seems like you sold your crypto at the right time and things are going well. You've earned it.
Wish I had sold all of it in retrospect lol, but it's going to recover. This isnt "the big one".

I'm just glad I kept working all through COVID. Yeah it meant taking a shitty job in food service, and all my buddies said I was a dumb ass and should have taken the unemployment dole instead. Well jokes on them. I had years of uninterrupted waging. So now I have a house and they are still renting and will be three sheets to the wind of shit goes sideways.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Huge spike in the CPI, which does not include things like Gas. Largest spike since 2008 incidentally. We are right on schedule.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Really not liking core fundamentals now. Prices have started to retreat off their all time high. And not slowly. Precipitous drops in lumber, beef and grain. Lumber is down almost half, corn a quarter and beef also a quarter. Oil is the most alarming though as it's shaved 5% this week in spite of supply restrictions by OPEC and the Biden Adninistration doing everything it can to kill North America's domestic production.

It could just be a price correction, but I don't buy it. The money printer is still blasting away.

I think the reactor is starting to stall. If I am wrong someone please call me dumb.
 

Scale Smerch

Pass the cluster rockets
kiwifarms.net
Precipitous drops in lumber, beef and grain. Lumber is down almost half, corn a quarter and beef also a quarter.
For lumber at least it's definitely a price correction. The recent spike was entirely distribution-based so the price has rebounded as shipping capacity has improved. Best evidence for this is the lack of mill expansion, none of larger firms have done so given the circumstances. It's the same for other construction materials and hardware, prices rose as shipping got squeezed and are now levelling back out.
 

Overly Serious

kiwifarms.net
How concerned should I be about US Congress refusing to renew the debt ceiling and invoking "emergency measures" to stay liquid.

What I heard was that these debt ceiling expansions are a routine thing that the opposition party just tacks a few things onto in horse trading because they know the ruling party MUST pass it. A little game of chicken, essentially. So what happened? Anything we should worry about?
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
How concerned should I be about US Congress refusing to renew the debt ceiling and invoking "emergency measures" to stay liquid.

What I heard was that these debt ceiling expansions are a routine thing that the opposition party just tacks a few things onto in horse trading because they know the ruling party MUST pass it. A little game of chicken, essentially. So what happened? Anything we should worry about?
I think right now they are trying to use scare tactics to get Congress to raise the debt ceiling. It's still not a good thing though. I also have to ask where the money for more debt is coming from. It certainly cannot be from the private sector or even China at this point. With inflation and low yields anyone who buys a T Note is setting their money on fire just to watch it burn.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I've more or less finished accumulating as much crypto as I think is prudent at this point t. So stage 2 of locking down my finances is complete. Got the house and acre of land well outside the city. Got the cryptos.

Time for stage 3. Placed my first order for precious metals. Silver this go around. gonna start accumulating non perishable food stuffs tomorrow. Mostly stuff I use anyway like salt, flour, beans etc.

Not seeing anything that makes me optimistic. The Federal Reserve has begun massively recalling its contracts which usually preludes a crash. The Government is desperate to roll out a huge spending package to keep the economy heated and there are now more open jobs then unemployed people to fill then. More and more I see this economy as a nuclear reactor with all the control rods pulled out. The operators are desperate to keep generating power even as they blow through every safety barrier.

Even so, I am hedging my bets. Everything I am doing is something that can be unwound even at a profit if it turns out I am full of shit and the world is not ending. I don't think I am though. My only question is not when this reactor will go critical, it's when.
 

Save the Loli

kiwifarms.net
I've more or less finished accumulating as much crypto as I think is prudent at this point t. So stage 2 of locking down my finances is complete. Got the house and acre of land well outside the city. Got the cryptos.
Is it actually worth it to invest in land now with the way the market is? I do live in a good area for investing in land but I'm worried that if I waited a year I'd be able to buy a better, larger property for cheaper. Won't the coming crash in the market ensure a bunch of homes and land go on the market and drive prices down, even if you live in a good real estate market?
Time for stage 3. Placed my first order for precious metals. Silver this go around. gonna start accumulating non perishable food stuffs tomorrow. Mostly stuff I use anyway like salt, flour, beans etc.
Hope you bought lots of CWC coins.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Is it actually worth it to invest in land now with the way the market is? I do live in a good area for investing in land but I'm worried that if I waited a year I'd be able to buy a better, larger property for cheaper. Won't the coming crash in the market ensure a bunch of homes and land go on the market and drive prices down, even if you live in a good real estate market?

Hope you bought lots of CWC coins.
I would say it depends on how you plan to invest in the land. If you have hard cash to just buy it outright waiting may be better, just watch out for inflation. If you are like me and need to do financing do it now while interest rates are retarded low. Those low rates are what is driving the higher prices but on the flip side of things if you wait for the crash you won't be able to get financing for any rate as the banks won't have money to lend.
 

software

The basilisk will decide your fate
kiwifarms.net
Is it actually worth it to invest in land now with the way the market is? I do live in a good area for investing in land but I'm worried that if I waited a year I'd be able to buy a better, larger property for cheaper. Won't the coming crash in the market ensure a bunch of homes and land go on the market and drive prices down, even if you live in a good real estate market?
If you can get a conventional mortgage, you should definitely take advantage. interest rates being below delta of one year housing CPI means the banks are currently paying you to have a mortgage, and that's not even throwing the time value of having your money in other appreciating assets. I honestly feel like I scammed by broker buying property in this market. They are eating losses to the tune of .3% of the value of the house per month right now.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
If you can get a conventional mortgage, you should definitely take advantage. interest rates being below delta of one year housing CPI means the banks are currently paying you to have a mortgage, and that's not even throwing the time value of having your money in other appreciating assets. I honestly feel like I scammed by broker buying property in this market. They are eating losses to the tune of .3% of the value of the house per month right now.
That is the other thing that has me spooked. Every loan being issued right now is being done at a loss for the bank yet they are doing it anyway. Why? That loan will be a black hole on their ledger for the next 30 years! In this situation the bank would normally just stop lending until some sort equilibrium was reestablished.

Political pressure I am sure is playing "some" role, but I think the actual reason they are doing it is more sinister. All mortgages are issued with the property as collateral. If their is a full on financial meltdown the banks are probably betting most of the people taking out loans now will go into default. The bank will end up owning the land in full, and will have bought something tangible with the paper dreams and rainbows the Federal Reserve handed to them.

Save save save.
 

software

The basilisk will decide your fate
kiwifarms.net
That is the other thing that has me spooked. Every loan being issued right now is being done at a loss for the bank yet they are doing it anyway. Why? That loan will be a black hole on their ledger for the next 30 years! In this situation the bank would normally just stop lending until some sort equilibrium was reestablished.

Political pressure I am sure is playing "some" role, but I think the actual reason they are doing it is more sinister. All mortgages are issued with the property as collateral. If their is a full on financial meltdown the banks are probably betting most of the people taking out loans now will go into default. The bank will end up owning the land in full, and will have bought something tangible with the paper dreams and rainbows the Federal Reserve handed to them.

Save save save.
Yeah, the ideal state is to be able to buy in full, while choosing to take advantage of the rate anyways. if you have to liquidate assets to cover the mortgage, so be it. Obviously that isn't an option for most people though, so caveat emptor.
 

mindlessobserver

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Uh oh



*edit* quick reading into this, it's actually very bad. The company isn't just 300 billion dollars in default. That 300 billions is only half the story. The other half if the eye watering interest rates it was issued at. Depending on how those financial instruments were structured there could be massive down stream ramifications. China's government will want to preserve stability and see the smaller investors paid out but this wod require looting the big guys at a HUGE mark up. If those guys don't have the cash on hand to paper this over the money will have to come directly from the government itself. But even that move could cause a financial panic creating exponentially more costs.
 
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Aqua Panda

I've seen horrors... horrors that you've seen.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Uh oh



*edit* quick reading into this, it's actually very bad. The company isn't just 300 billion dollars in default. That 300 billions is only half the story. The other half if the eye watering interest rates it was issued at. Depending on how those financial instruments were structured there could be massive down stream ramifications. China's government will want to preserve stability and see the smaller investors paid out but this wod require looting the big guys at a HUGE mark up. If those guys don't have the cash on hand to paper this over the money will have to come directly from the government itself. But even that move could cause a financial panic creating exponentially more costs.
Reminds me of the Lehman Brothers meltdown in 2008.

Not suprised in the least bit. China's economy is one giant house of cards that would have fallen apart by now without the CCP rule. (Most property isn't really "owned" by people, but on loan from the CCP for 30 year periods.)

It'll be really interesting just how the CCP handles a nasty recession when it eventually happens.
 

I Love Beef

OH YEAHHUH, SNAP INTO A SLIM JIM
kiwifarms.net
If I don't buy stock, as a pleb, should I spend a majority of my stimulus savings on capital and non-market volatile investments that will help me down the line with my career for long run plans and withdraw the rest of my cash from the bank or should I just stay where I am at? Or should I do what you guys are doing and invest in crypto and play the stock game?
 
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