Demographic Collapse and You - What will the 2050s and beyond look like for China and the West?

Will China overtake America and will it be sustainable?


  • Total voters
    42

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapincal
kiwifarms.net

American Neoliberal Intellectuals have for decades now promoted the graph of Chinese economic supremacy and American collapse or subordination. But what if the coming decades produced an unlikely alternate model where China booms to 2040 but then contracts mightily as it develops a problem it never had to solve before; China avoided a relatively large senior population by:
  • Defeat in the First Opium War (1839–1842) by the British
  • Defeat in the Second Opium War (1856–1860) and the sacking of the Old Summer Palace by British and French forces.
  • Defeat in the First Sino-Japanese War (1894–1895) by Japan
  • The Eight-Nation Alliance invasion to suppress the Boxer uprising (1899–1901) and impose reparations in excess of the government's annual tax revenue.
  • The Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945)
  • The First Chinese Population Boom (1963–1974)
  • The Second Chinese Population Boom (1987–1990)
However nowadays the Chinese population, aging under the One-Child Policy, is going to hit a potential upper economic limit once the population reaches their senior years. Their economic will contract, but what will the world look like, and what will the contraction do to America? Both the Neoconservatives such as Ben Shapiro, who credit China's rise silently in their accrediting of capitalism to being the largest solver of world poverty, and the Neoliberals such as elderly Joe Biden, who sat down for numerous dinners with Xi Jinping to discuss American and Chinese outlooks on domestic and international affairs, have made a mountain of China's rising GDP. However a silent tell-tale sign of a nation's true value is not GDP but GDP per capita. Mass immigration in America, for instance, raised GDP while lowering GDP per capita. China has the GDP of America but the GDP per capita between Mexico & Russia. This spells doom or at least a small setback.
 
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NerdShamer

International Glownigger Commander
kiwifarms.net
This bit here.
However a silent tell-tale sign of a nation's true value is not GDP but GDP per capita. Mass immigration in America, for instance, raised GDP while lowering GDP per capita. China has the GDP of America but the GDP per capita between Mexico & Russia. This spells doom or at least a small setback.
This has been going on for years and hardly anything came from it.
 

Johan Schmidt

kiwifarms.net
Why do people care so much about the 'FUCKIN CHICOMS!!'?

They're not going to hurt you, they don't care all much about you; and spend most of their time fucking with their own citizens. It's like caring about Russia in the 80's. Sure they might do something incredibly insane, dumb, suicidal, counterproductive and to the detriment of them. But why would they?
 

mr.moon1488

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I think the US, and China will both kind of keep dragging by for what will likely be another generation. Afterward, the collapse of one will lead to the collapse of the other. Both nation's economies are tied to the global markets pretty heavily, and currently, the global markets are basically one giant Ponzi scheme.
 

Toolbox

Buy dat hell
kiwifarms.net
Why do people care so much about the 'FUCKIN CHICOMS!!'?

They're not going to hurt you, they don't care all much about you; and spend most of their time fucking with their own citizens. It's like caring about Russia in the 80's. Sure they might do something incredibly insane, dumb, suicidal, counterproductive and to the detriment of them. But why would they?
Russians in the 80s weren't buying up western land, including farms, to take resources from our nations.
 

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapincal
kiwifarms.net
Where the fuck is the option for an American Warlord Era?
You mean like Fallout: New Vegas? Um, shit.. well, 'America will lose to China & even Great Power status entirely because of its demographics' I suppose is open-ended?

I think the US, and China will both kind of keep dragging by for what will likely be another generation. Afterward, the collapse of one will lead to the collapse of the other. Both nation's economies are tied to the global markets pretty heavily, and currently, the global markets are basically one giant Ponzi scheme.
I think the coming energy crisis will solve that problem, oil will cost more and more to extract and U-235 reactors are still hated irrationally given our severe addiction to cheap energy.
 

Fentanyl Floyd

kiwifarms.net
I think their both their both fucked like @mr.moon1488 said since they're both tied to global economy, which is why I'm more worried about what will happen to whites, since we've become a minority in the world and if nothing changes in our countries as well, I just wonder what will happen to White americans and europeans when the great satan finally bites the dust.
 

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapincal
kiwifarms.net
I think their both their both fucked like @mr.moon1488 said since they're both tied to global economy, which is why I'm more worried about what will happen to whites, since we've become a minority in the world and if nothing changes in our countries as well, I just wonder what will happen to White americans and europeans when the great satan finally bites the dust.
The problem with 'White' populations is that they are the continental European genetics transplanted to North America in the late 1800s amalgamating and conquering the White Anglo-Saxon Protestant population by mixing and outbreeding them. The result is a new merged population which tries to pretend either Europe is so mixed or that in melding with the host population they are not in any form a change or replacement.

The two central problems of this is that Europe doesn't see white and won't until their individual neighborhoods are forcibly multiculturalized a generation from now, and that the American perspective on the question of race is that 'Whites' shouldn't be defensive because "we are all immigrants". Huge swaths of white populations are inwardly destroyed first by the lack of care to even protect their uniquenesses which once watered down will never come again, and second by their horrid uncaringness toward their culture unique from the New Normal Culture found in ads and corporate music (but I repeat myself).

I personally am forced to conclude 'White' is too large a zone to protect, Whites-who-are-awake-to-their-destiny lacks a nice word since Woke is as leftist as the Rainbow today but that is an important distinction I make in my life however frightening the obvious smaller group that makes "my people". I truly don't know if that is even any better, but it excludes the White Liberal hurting themselves from effecting me any longer. The large group is horrible because it largely wants nothing to do with itself, and the small group is already a severe minority which is scattered about two continents.
 

jje100010001

kiwifarms.net
China is on its last legs, what we are seeing is the finale of the communist middle kingdom
My opinion is that it's a race to see who outlives the other.

The US is currently being forcibly arranged into a corporatist Anarcho-Tyranny, but immigration will still sustain it for quite a while, at the cost of its national cohesion and identity (currently being demolished by the underemployed aspiring elites of the country). It still possesses a massive headstart, in terms of its amount of reach around the globe, as well as a culture and economy that allows it to innovate when it comes time to push (at least until the woke fully penetrates).

China on the other hand faces a demographic echo as its vast middle-aged population starts to reach the end of their productive age, and is racing to innovate and avoid the middle income trap- but it possesses a huge amount of political and national cohesion and identity, in no little part due to the nature of its totalizing government. However, that same government likes its perpetual """6% growth rates""", pointless international sabre-rattling, and also stigmatizes any sort of whistleblower culture that builds resilience and real innovation.

IMO, the pandemic and vaccine race illustrated this well.

In general, China has around 20-30 years to get this sorted out internally while the US races to contain them globally before that- whether or not it can get it done depends on how much cohesion it can muster in itself and its allies.

Secondly, continued automation + AI improvements running into the next two decades may continue to reduce the size of the population needed to run the economy as well. I don't see the CCP ever accepting mass immigration as an option, as they would see it as an affront their pure-Han space. In the end, it all boils down to this phrase- "Can China become rich (and automated) before it gets old?"
 
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