Thread for discussing the ongoing tensions between Russia and the Ukraine.
Russia currently has 150,000 troops readying up.
Nothing has popped off yet.
Russia currently has 150,000 troops readying up.
Nothing has popped off yet.
Donbass Conflict in Ukraine -
- Thread starter Meat Target
- Start date
Samson Pumpkin Jr.
kiwifarms.net
CRP told me there'll be no war because the exchange rate isn't going up or down. But maybe this is Russia making it seems like there's no war so they can more effectively surprise attack Ukraine. Very smart. The fact that it looks like there won't be war means that there'll be war.
We are waiting for Putin's State of the Federation address tomorrow. There are unconfirmed reports that Russian TV channels have been advised to move to Donetsk and "wait".
Whenever Russian TV crews appeared during the heated parts of the war, there was usually some shit that seps were doing that ended up being a video clip or a sound bite for another demonizing video on Russian TV and press.
If Russia wanted actual war with Ukraine, they'd just do it. The last conflict showed how Ukraine is completely incapable of war, how most Ukrainians would rather flee the country than fight and how Ukraine was reliant on literal neo-nazi militias to do most of the work.
Even retards should understand that preparations for war take some time. "Just do it" isn't something an army can do. Well, right now Putin seems to be positioning the army for a potential attack. Whether he goes for it - is a different story but this is something he has never done before.
vulgar
kiwifarms.net
it's a really bizarre situation - Donetsk/Luhansk are completely unsustainable and untenable. Russia's in no position for a prolonged conflict, and the real prize: Crimea; was taken swiftly and effortlessly.
an invasion of Ukraine feels unrealistic, even with 150,000 men banging their shields on the border.
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Not to mention that a fair number of them, especially in the east, would much prefer to be part of Russia anyhow. I have a fair number of friends from/living in the Crimea and literally all of them were happy about the annexation.
Can say for Luhansk only - they have Moscow prices but their salaries are lower than in the Russia "proper".
And yeah, Putin took Crimea without considering the N Crimean channel. That shows the level of his "foresight".
I hope they don't stink too much, comrade.
Ukraine announced some time ago that it would be receiving armaments form the US, including rockets/missiles that would be able to strike Russia. Russia of course is going to respond to that.
Also ask yourself if the sources saying that Russia is asking for war are the same sources that tried to claim Russia was paying the taliban to kill american soldiers
JägerGoose
kiwifarms.net
it's less to do with position and ressource than the retaking of russian territories. It's putin way of pandering to the nationalist. Also, it would be a middle finger to the USA, a way of saying we can do what we want and there is nothing you can do.
For the invasion, it's unlikely with the stacking of NATO troop in the baltic and the swift remilitarisation of Japan
JägerGoose
kiwifarms.net
Also, just waiting for a reason to blast Черный ворон
vulgar
kiwifarms.net
in all fairness I doubt Putin ever cared about the agricultural output of Crimea - it was all for Sevastapol.
but this just proves my point that Luhansk and Donetsk are unsustainable, because there's going to be more retaliation than they can handle. It's too much to ask for especially when considering the state of the Russian economy.
I agree, it just seems like a lot of effort for just "pandering." Again, I feel like taking only Crimea would've been a lot more successful and cleaner, but now we have ultranationalist militias skirmishing with each other kicking up shit. It really reflects poorly on everyone.
You miss my point. I'm saying the stacking of Russian troops is a response to aggression from NATO, supplying Ukraine with armaments that can strike Russia. There are also talks of adding Ukraine to NATO, which make war with Russia much more likely.
vulgar
kiwifarms.net
no, we're on the same page - my point is just that I don't feel like Luhansk and Donetsk were a productive outlet for Russian interests + defence.
I'm sympathetic to the position Russia's in, I know they have to fight hard and aggressive if they want to survive, I just don't see this as a productive front.
Western media will be hostile to Russia regardless, but the Donbass was really unnecessary and gave Western governments far more reason than they needed to escalate Western influence in Eastern Europe.
The Donbass felt like a clumsy and poorly planned response in contrast to the well executed annexation of Crimea. Crimea is also likely far better suited to aiding in the defence of Russia than the Donbass ever would be.
I don't think Russia really wanted the civil war to go on, and the outlet I watched which subbed videos from the area claimed that the Russian government had leaders of the rebellion assassinated to prevent further escalations.
Although from what I understand, in addition to being ethnically Russian, Donbass is more industrialized than the rest of Ukraine and is more productive. People in the area see themselves as being exploited by the Ukranian government to benefit the rest of the country. This is one of the factors in why the rebellion was/is so popular with people in the region, and while it could potentially be an incentive for Russia to intervene in the region, I agree that any Russian involvement will do it more damage than good due to western retaliation.
- Highlight
- #17
Common wisdom in Ukraine is that this escalation is not to conquer and occupy but to pressure and intimidate.
Putin does not want to annex Donbas specifically: while it was the centre of Ukrainian heavy industry before the war, now it is a barren region, and even if it was not, Russia has factories of its own. Crimea is valuable in itself because it is an outlet to the Black Sea, excellent as a naval base; Donbas has no such unique quality.
Putin has long been showing a desire to have most of Ukraine under Russian control, excluding the regions of Volhynia, Galicia, and Carpathia, which are much more nationalistic and westernised than the rest of the country. However, conquering the country by brute force is not quite realistic. The apparent strategy has always been to install a pro-Russian government, such as that of ousted Yanukovych, which would keep Ukraine a placid puppet state, doing whatever is in Russian interests wilfully.
The best way to install a pro-Russian government is to have it be voted in. As such, Russia would like Ukraine to take Donbas back — with voting rights; this has been a point of contention during every round of talks. Most of the pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western population of the occupied regions has long since emigrated internally or externally, leaving Donbas inhabited overwhelmingly by pro-Russian people. Were they given a right to vote the moment Donbas gets taken in, the pro-Russian faction in the government would grow.
26 electoral districts currently belong to the occupied territories. Worst-case scenario: massive growth of the pro-Russian faction, two provinces have pro-Russian leadership, and the presidential election goes to the pro-Russian candidate. Ukrainian administration would rather eat a grenade than accept Donbas on these terms, but this is exactly what Russia was insisting on.
As such, escalation happens to pressure Ukrainian administration into negotiating again, and again, and — hopefully for Putin — until they cave in and allow elections in Donbas in exchange for having it back.
Putin does not want to annex Donbas specifically: while it was the centre of Ukrainian heavy industry before the war, now it is a barren region, and even if it was not, Russia has factories of its own. Crimea is valuable in itself because it is an outlet to the Black Sea, excellent as a naval base; Donbas has no such unique quality.
Putin has long been showing a desire to have most of Ukraine under Russian control, excluding the regions of Volhynia, Galicia, and Carpathia, which are much more nationalistic and westernised than the rest of the country. However, conquering the country by brute force is not quite realistic. The apparent strategy has always been to install a pro-Russian government, such as that of ousted Yanukovych, which would keep Ukraine a placid puppet state, doing whatever is in Russian interests wilfully.
The best way to install a pro-Russian government is to have it be voted in. As such, Russia would like Ukraine to take Donbas back — with voting rights; this has been a point of contention during every round of talks. Most of the pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western population of the occupied regions has long since emigrated internally or externally, leaving Donbas inhabited overwhelmingly by pro-Russian people. Were they given a right to vote the moment Donbas gets taken in, the pro-Russian faction in the government would grow.
26 electoral districts currently belong to the occupied territories. Worst-case scenario: massive growth of the pro-Russian faction, two provinces have pro-Russian leadership, and the presidential election goes to the pro-Russian candidate. Ukrainian administration would rather eat a grenade than accept Donbas on these terms, but this is exactly what Russia was insisting on.
As such, escalation happens to pressure Ukrainian administration into negotiating again, and again, and — hopefully for Putin — until they cave in and allow elections in Donbas in exchange for having it back.
How does this change the presidential elections, however? Its not like there are more of these pro-russian Ukrainians, its just that the pro-russian part of ukraine is now more pro-russian and less populated while the anti-russian parts of Ukraine are now more anti-russian and more populated. Couldn't they simply say "We'll let you vote again, but we'll have a remapping of districts to reflect population change" or something similar
Currently, pro-Russian people in the occupied territories do not vote. They have not voted since Yanukovych eked out a victory over Tymoshenko. If they were to vote in the presidential election, their votes would go to the pro-Russian candidate. Meanwhile, the number of votes the pro-Western candidate would get would not change.
Population density does not matter. Who becomes the president and how many seats in the parliament a party gets is decided not by districts but by popular vote. Even more so after the last electoral reform. I only mentioned districts because individual voters are tied to them, and if a certain district is barred from the election, people tied to it cannot cast a vote.
KillEmAll1989
kiwifarms.net
I need the QRD - here’s what I know right now:
>2014
>Ukrainian President has choice of a trade deal with the EU or Russia - chooses Russia
>CIA-funded revolution overthrows him, he flees to Russia
>Putin, sensing that Ukraine is slipping away, seizes Crimea, which houses a valuable Russian naval base (I know there was also a vote by the people to make the annexation official)
>The West goes ballistic - basically starting all of the anti-Russia sentiment in that we’ve seen since
>Another region of Ukraine (Donbass) tries to break away as well to join Russia - Putin say nyet, but gives them to support to cause trouble anyway
>Of course, America/the West gives support to Ukraine to fight the separatists
>At some point a peace deal is signed?
So why are things going crazy again?
>2014
>Ukrainian President has choice of a trade deal with the EU or Russia - chooses Russia
>CIA-funded revolution overthrows him, he flees to Russia
>Putin, sensing that Ukraine is slipping away, seizes Crimea, which houses a valuable Russian naval base (I know there was also a vote by the people to make the annexation official)
>The West goes ballistic - basically starting all of the anti-Russia sentiment in that we’ve seen since
>Another region of Ukraine (Donbass) tries to break away as well to join Russia - Putin say nyet, but gives them to support to cause trouble anyway
>Of course, America/the West gives support to Ukraine to fight the separatists
>At some point a peace deal is signed?
So why are things going crazy again?
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