Donbass Conflict in Ukraine -

[Itterasshai]

I need the QRD - here’s what I know right now:

>2014
>Ukrainian President has choice of a trade deal with the EU or Russia - chooses Russia
>CIA-funded revolution overthrows him, he flees to Russia
>Putin, sensing that Ukraine is slipping away, seizes Crimea, which houses a valuable Russian naval base (I know there was also a vote by the people to make the annexation official)
>The West goes ballistic - basically starting all of the anti-Russia sentiment in that we’ve seen since
>Another region of Ukraine (Donbass) tries to break away as well to join Russia - Putin say nyet, but gives them to support to cause trouble anyway
>Of course, America/the West gives support to Ukraine to fight the separatists
>At some point a peace deal is signed?

So why are things going crazy again?

Things are going poorly for the authorities in Russia. Elections are in September, both legislative and local, meaning it would be best if voters liked the government just for a few months, but it has been one disaster after another.

The pandemic has been bad for people’s wallets and moods. The constitutional referendum must have been tasking both politically and financially. It was already bad enough, but then the Navalny affair, meant to be a quick assassination, turned into an embarrassing fiasco. Furthermore, instead of dying, ending up handicapped, or remaining abroad, Navalny returned to Russia and released a widely-watched documentary about Putin’s secret residence. All this galvanised the opposition instead of demoralising it, which is mighty inconvenient right before the elections.

Moreover, things have not been going smoothly abroad. Belarus erupted in protests after a sham election. Putin and co. rather dislike when this happens to the neighbours. The new Ukrainian president, who was at first thought to be weak and lightly pro-Russian, turned out to be about the same as the last one when it comes to foreign relations. Lastly, Biden won in the US and adopted an openly adversarial stance towards Russia. Quite a run of bad luck.

Russian opposition members tend to think this sabre-rattling on the border is to distract from the Navalny issue — his imprisonment and the rush to shut down his offices. I would say it happens because nothing raises patriotism like a bit of war. Or a threat of one.

For another reason for the escalation, see my previous text wall.

 

[KillEmAll1989]

What’s with all of the botched assassination attempts recently? Why have they gotten so bad at pulling them off?

 

[5ever a crab]

I misread the thread title as

Dumbass Conflict in Ukraine

 

[Richardface]

What’s with all of the botched assassination attempts recently? Why have they gotten so bad at pulling them off?

Successful assassination = fsb or mossad

Unsuccessful = cia

 

[Borscht]

Navalny returned to Russia and released a widely-watched documentary about Putin’s secret residence.

I agree that Putin has overstayed his welcome by the time 2010's have rolled in, but I've been browsing Reddit the other day (a guilty pleasure) and am still chuckling at the sheer number of sweet summer children who think this documentary is somehow a revelation that will bring the man down.

"Look, everybody, the tsar has a ludicrously expensive palace!" I mean, duh? He is a tsar. Next they will be telling me the sky is blue and expect an astonished reaction.

Also, the man delivered a nation address today. Yesterday they all were convinced he would use it to announce the invasion of Ukraine, Palpatine-style. Instead he addressed the issue of gas infrastructure development in suburban areas.

If you ask me, I expect he will propose Zelensky a trade of lifting water embargo from Crimea in exchange for lifting the Azov sea blockade. But we'll see.

Another point of note is how unenthusiastic everybody is about the potential invasion. Retaking Crimea was the high note of 2014, Крым наш, happy happy joy joy, but in 2021 the idea of a military adventure on dubious pretext is met with a resounding "hell no" from everybody I know. Not after a year of Covid, climbing prices, hiked up retirement age and all that shit.

The United Russia lost a lot of goodwill in 2020. Probably not enough to dislodge them, but enough to make them squirm.

 

[Bad Gateway]

I can't believe Hillary Clinton is doing this

 

[TLEN]

I just want to grill for G-d's sake.

 

[Greyfield]

Ukraine would be better off under Russia, it's a complete shithole now, with more corruption in it than most African countries. Ukraine didn't even have a national identity before the Soviet Union was a thing, and then after it broke up, they forgot their past and became this grotesque mix of a tool for America and a haven for Neo-Nazis.

They're so pathetic that they had to make up their own Holocaust, never mind the fact that the famine affected all of the Soviet Union, was the most brutal in Kazakhstan, and was not an intentional killing. Never mind the fact that collectivization was enforced in the Ukraine not by Judeo Bolsheviks, but by Ukrainian communists. They have monuments honouring SS divisions that were fighting to slaughter their people on behalf of a genocidal regime but refuse to honour the many more Ukrainian Red Army soldiers that fought and died to stop the Nazis.

They need to get their shit together under a bigger power, because right now they're clinging to a pride and a past that doesn't exist. America should offer Ukraine up to Russia in exchange for some real concessions, because sanctions are worthless against Putin since he genuinely doesn't care if his people are hurting. There's a win-win scenario to wring out of this whole Ukraine affair that everyone refuses to see because they're still lying to themselves about what the country really is today.

 

[Meat Target]

Successful assassination = fsb or mossad

Unsuccessful = cia

I don't wanna derail the thread, but the Mossad will fuck you up if you wind up on their shitlist.

 

[TLEN]

because sanctions are worthless against Putin since he genuinely doesn't care if his people are hurting.

I don't think any sanctions are ever applied to hurt the ruler as opposed to causing civil unrest.

 

[Meat Target]

I don't think any sanctions are ever applied to hurt the ruler as opposed to causing civil unrest.

It could (hypothetically) hurt their military-industrial complex by curtailing arms exports or throwing off logistics that are dependent on foreign trade.

 

[RussianParasite]

The United Russia lost a lot of goodwill in 2020. Probably not enough to dislodge them, but enough to make them squirm.

Agreed. I also love how redditors all think that Putin would have lost if not but for his rigging of the election. Like, lol, these people have clearly never been to Russia or know very many actual Russians (that don’t live in the west). With or without election fuckery, Единая Россия faced no real threat to its majority. The КПРФ came in a very distant second last go around at like 10%, followed by my boy Жириновский in the ЛДПР (I think we can all agree him winning is the funniest outcome).

I have a theory that western soy boys/academics/journalists look the other way on China because they are not evil “whites” like the Russians.

 

[Borscht]

(I think we can all agree him winning is the funniest outcome).

Nah, the funniest outcome is Navalny being groomed by Putin as his successor, and the entire "survivor-of-double-poisoning-and-scary-siberian-gulag" song and dance turning out to be a performance to make the West roll back their russophobic rhetoric after the old man finally retires.

I want it to happen so bad. Watching the western media backpedal would be HILARIOUS.

 

[TLEN]

I don't know how Жириновский doesn't have his own lolcow page by now.

 

[Übertroon]

I don't think war is likely. Air defenses from both sides makes attacks by air difficult, which turns the war into a slog with trenches and artillery barrages.

The pro Russians here have already admitted Ukraine is a shithole, so how many lives and missiles is it worth?

A war might boost short term approval, but I can't see the long term benifits of occupying a belligerent Ukraine

 

[Meat Target]

Nah, the funniest outcome is Navalny being groomed by Putin as his successor, and the entire "survivor-of-double-poisoning-and-scary-siberian-gulag" song and dance turning out to be a performance to make the West roll back their russophobic rhetoric after the old man finally retires.

I want it to happen so bad. Watching the western media backpedal would be HILARIOUS.

Given the US Establishment's history of never learning anything, I'd say that's a safe bet.

 

[KingCoelacanth]

I don't think war is likely. Air defenses from both sides makes attacks by air difficult, which turns the war into a slog with trenches and artillery barrages.

The pro Russians here have already admitted Ukraine is a shithole, so how many lives and missiles is it worth?

A war might boost short term approval, but I can't see the long term benifits of occupying a belligerent Ukraine

Its worth lives and missles to the west, since they're the ones trying to get Ukraine into NATO (thus forcing NATO to spend lives defending it) and the US has already reached deals to supply Ukraine with missiles and other weapons.

 

[Übertroon]

Its worth lives and missles to the west, since they're the ones trying to get Ukraine into NATO (thus forcing NATO to spend lives defending it) and the US has already reached deals to supply Ukraine with missiles and other weapons.

No NATO troops are going to die though. And the missiles are bought, making it a win-win for them. Just like when NATO countries supply Saudi Arabia.
But if Russia goes to war against Ukraine, it will be Russian lives lost, and equipment bought by the Russian army expended.
How many young Russians is Kiev worth?

 

[KingCoelacanth]

No NATO troops are going to die though. And the missiles are bought, making it a win-win for them. Just like when NATO countries supply Saudi Arabia.
But if Russia goes to war against Ukraine, it will be Russian lives lost, and equipment bought by the Russian army expended.
How many young Russians is Kiev worth?

If Ukraine joins NATO, then NATO will be required to expend lives to protect it.
Assuming you're right and NATO doesn't join in the fight, Russia would probably lose less lives taking Kiev than the US and allies loss fucking around in the ME for the past 20 years and gaining nothing from it.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

There's not going to be a war as Ukraine has no one left who can fight, and I don't mean shelling unarmed civilians. Ukrainian army is already on its 6th or 7th wave of conscription, which included cripples, old people, some of the more intelligent great apes, and some kind of retarded subhumans from the west (those usually end up in Azov Battalion.)