Global Depression 2022 - Time to do the Breadline Boogaloo!

  • Registration closed, comedy forum, Internet drama, Sneed, etc.

Who is going to get hit the hardest?

  • North America

  • South America

  • Asia

  • Europe

  • Australia

  • Africa

  • The Middle East

  • Everyone's fucked

  • Nothing will happen


Results are only viewable after voting.

contradiction of terns

I have no egrets
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 2, 2020
Things are getting spicy in Lebanon.

Archive

Cash-strapped Lebanese drivers block roads in ‘Day of rage’​

Lebanon’s transport unions demand the government subsidise their fuel prices and provide cash assistance.

Beirut, Lebanon – Truck and bus drivers across Lebanon have blocked roads and highways with their vehicles, urging the government to help them cope with skyrocketing fuel prices.

Lebanon’s transportation unions called for a “Day of rage” on Thursday to paralyse the country and pressure authorities into subsidising fuel prices and providing financial compensation to help them cope with mounting expenses.

“We are destroyed,” bus driver Ali Al Jaroosh told Al Jazeera as he blocked an intersection near downtown Beirut. “We get paid in liras [Lebanese pound] but cover our costs in dollars.”

Last September, the head of the land transport unions, Bassam Tleis, said Prime Minister Najib Mikati promised that the government will fulfil their demands and compensate them.

But Mikati’s rescue government has not met since October and has been unable to implement financial reforms to unlock billions in international assistance.

It also continues to struggle to keep the local currency from spiraling – the Lebanese pound has lost about 95 percent of its value in just more than two years as it continues to depreciate rapidly.

At one of the roadblocks, Tleis told reporters that protests will continue until their demands are met.

Alfred Hokayem, a 56-year-old truck driver, was among a dozen people blocking the otherwise-busy Dawra highway on the outskirts of Beirut.

“Today is a warning,” Hokayem told Al Jazeera. “This will escalate. We will riot.”

Drivers of public transport have especially struggled to cope with soaring fuel costs, as the Central Bank continues to gradually lift subsidies since last summer to ration the country’s dwindling foreign reserves.

Filling up the fuel tank now costs more than the monthly minimum wage which is worth about $20.

Food inflation in Lebanon is among the highest in the world, exceeding 557 percent as of last autumn, according to the United Nations World Food Programme.

On top of that, rampant power cuts since last summer have forced households to pay excessive costs to private generator suppliers, often higher than their own house rents.
 

Simple Moving Average

Noblesse oblige
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Feb 22, 2020
I am really struggling with this one.

You have global companies creating creating shareholder value:
- Tech
- Commodities
- "Healthcare"
- Consumer products
- Communications

Indisputable. But then all these companies are blown up to ridiculous P/E ratios by central bank liquidity injections. So to me the question is; is the underlying value creation going on a bigger factor in equity returns than the synthetic value creation.

I guess not. I guess it's central bank liquidity injections driving an artificial amplification of real value.

But it does mean you are implying that playing musical chairs a little longer is the right course of action.

What are the main drivers of equity returns averaged out globally long-term?

What are equity returns if not growth in their monetary value?

These are caused by (in no particular order):
  1. Growth of population
  2. Growth of productivity
  3. Growth of money supply

Thanks for playing, come again!
 

Hippopatumus

kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jan 9, 2020
All three of those are facing extreme headwinds that are accelerating.

Global population is projected to increase by ~10% over the next century. Growth is slowing rapidly.

1642165199245.png


Every chart I can find on productivity growth paints a similar picture.

1642164950353.png



I agree with you on the money supply (and that was my main point). But it's (a) not sustainable and (b) not real productivity.

While global equity indexes may very well return positive returns over the next century, we are locked into a global depression over the next decade at least.
 

HARDCORE SYNDROME

yes the whole earth
kiwifarms.net
Joined
May 8, 2020
sc.png

Paul Adolph Volcker Jr. (September 5, 1927 – December 8, 2019) was an American economist. He served two terms as the 12th Chair of the Federal Reserve from 1979 to 1987. He was nominated to position by President Jimmy Carter and renominated by President Ronald Reagan. He was widely credited with having ended the high levels of inflation seen in the United States during the 1970s and early 1980s. After his retirement from the Fed, he chaired the Economic Recovery Advisory Board under President Barack Obama from February 2009 until January 2011.
 

contradiction of terns

I have no egrets
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 2, 2020
Omicron Hastens U.S. Restaurants’ Sales Drop, Bankruptcy Threat

I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that Omicron really only serves the purpose of excusing and muddying the stats coming out currently, and I stand by this.

My theory is that due to the rapidly spiking inflation a lot of people are cutting out their restaurant visits and going to cooking. I don't have any ability to back this up, but I know that myself and a great deal of the people I know are taking this route.

Brother-in-law called earlier to talk about the fact that beef is $20 a pound where he lives, and I gathered he meant any form of beef, including the garbage cuts.
 

Simple Moving Average

Noblesse oblige
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Feb 22, 2020
All three of those are facing extreme headwinds that are accelerating.

Global population is projected to increase by ~10% over the next century. Growth is slowing rapidly.

View attachment 2886750

Every chart I can find on productivity growth paints a similar picture.

View attachment 2886741


I agree with you on the money supply (and that was my main point). But it's (a) not sustainable and (b) not real productivity.

While global equity indexes may very well return positive returns over the next century, we are locked into a global depression over the next decade at least.

You see the conundrum?

Hence my reaction about a year ago when I realized that what's gonna happen was not only unavoidable, but actually inevitable all along.
 

Sped Xing

!Bigfoot! sightings please call 908-314-7784
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 4, 2019
All three of those are facing extreme headwinds that are accelerating.

Global population is projected to increase by ~10% over the next century. Growth is slowing rapidly.

View attachment 2886750
I used to see charts like this and say, "we need a new plague," but it didn't help.
 

attractive_pneumonia

kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 27, 2019
The only people who get medical care (thus extending their lifespans on average) are people who have money, i.e. people who contribute to society on average.
What? This is a retarded hot take, the people with the worst healthcare are the ones that reproduce the most. Population is spiking in Africa, India and East Asia. North America, Europe, Central and South America are largely stable. For the next 80 years most growth in population will be African and the heaviest decrease in theory will come from China and European and European derived nations.
 

George Lucas

Hentai with Chinese Characteristics
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
What? This is a retarded hot take, the people with the worst healthcare are the ones that reproduce the most. Population is spiking in Africa, India and East Asia. North America, Europe, Central and South America are largely stable. For the next 80 years most growth in population will be African and the heaviest decrease in theory will come from China and European and European derived nations.
Correlation does not equal causation retard.

The reasons those populations are spiking is partly because we got rid of malaria, smallpox, and leprosy. If those shithole countries get their shit together, their birth rates will go down. If we just stopped giving medical aid, do you think their infant mortality rate and lifespan are going to magically improve further?
 

The Ugly One

kiwifarms.net
Joined
Nov 15, 2021
I agree with you on the money supply (and that was my main point). But it's (a) not sustainable and (b) not real productivity.

Increasing the money supply shifts wealth from everyone else to the investor class, so as long as everyone else still has wealth to steal, you can fake growth by driving movement that way. We might be running out of stuff to steal.
 

Beavis

Dilweed
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Dec 31, 2018
Omicron Hastens U.S. Restaurants’ Sales Drop, Bankruptcy Threat

I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that Omicron really only serves the purpose of excusing and muddying the stats coming out currently, and I stand by this.

My theory is that due to the rapidly spiking inflation a lot of people are cutting out their restaurant visits and going to cooking. I don't have any ability to back this up, but I know that myself and a great deal of the people I know are taking this route.

Brother-in-law called earlier to talk about the fact that beef is $20 a pound where he lives, and I gathered he meant any form of beef, including the garbage cuts.
Restaurant prices have skyrocketed the past 6-12 months. The price of meals I usually get have gone up anywhere from 20-40%. Try to get a meal for two at a casual dining place for less than $50.
 

HTTP Error 404

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Feb 28, 2019
Increasing the money supply shifts wealth from everyone else to the investor class, so as long as everyone else still has wealth to steal, you can fake growth by driving movement that way. We might be running out of stuff to steal.
Not yet. Blackrock is busy buying up all the residential real estate property.

I wonder if they're doing so as a REIT. That would be interesting.
 
Joined
Oct 14, 2017
Restaurant prices have skyrocketed the past 6-12 months. The price of meals I usually get have gone up anywhere from 20-40%. Try to get a meal for two at a casual dining place for less than $50.
Same here. It's getting to the point that I can't justify going to the small mom & pop restaurants because the markup is starting to outweigh the convenience, even for the ethnic foods that I'm not as savvy at making.
 

Male Idiot

Das rite!
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Nov 6, 2014
I got 4 gourmet USA clown burgar god meals for 25 dollarinos. That or a high grade 2 person thai lunch with shrimp that doesn't taste like mud.

I love foodstamps. And you only get them if you have a jawwb.
 

Sped Xing

!Bigfoot! sightings please call 908-314-7784
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jun 4, 2019
I got 4 gourmet USA clown burgar god meals for 25 dollarinos. That or a high grade 2 person thai lunch with shrimp that doesn't taste like mud.

I love foodstamps. And you only get them if you have a jawwb.
I ran this through google translate from Hungarian and got the following

I got 4 gourmet American clown burger god food for $ 25. This is a high quality 2-course Thai lunch with shrimp that doesn’t taste like mud.



I love food tickets. And you only get them if you have a mouth.

Now I'm even more confused.