I have a theory on the downfall of the West - I think the elites are making a very simple mistake of only looking at mathematical measured outcomes instead of the larger picture

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How should a government judge it is doing the right thing once in power?


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Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapercal
kiwifarms.net
I was watching Adam Curtis' series The Trap today, and it hit me right on the title card: Humanity cannot be trusted, only the numbers can. What a shit idea, even if the masses lie they are the point, right? But what if you are trying to better the world and become myopic? Numbers do lie considerably less as people feel their day-to-day choices are less scrutinized then when they are explicitly asked their opinion. Of course that's true. So how do you know if you are helping Americans or just hammering nails because being a hammer is what you are hired to be? What happens when, across generations, policies become ideological lodestone rather than temporary measures? If you are just running the numbers and analyzing your opponent using game theory, at what point does America stop overthrowing other governments? It doesn't, the math always suggested they carry out their stupidity at the intelligence agencies, that is why we are in this mess.
  • In 1903, the U.S. aided the secession of Panama from the Republic of Colombia, engineered by a Panamanian faction backed by the Panama Canal Company, a French–US corporation whose aim was the construction of a waterway across the Isthmus of Panama thus connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
  • The Banana Wars occupations, police actions, and interventions on the part of the United States in Central America and the Caribbean between the end of the Spanish–American War in 1898 and the inception of the Good Neighbor Policy in 1934.
  • Occupations of Cuba by United States military forces, lasting from 1898–1902 & from 1906 to 1909.
  • The United States occupation of Veracruz began with the Battle of Veracruz and lasted for seven months, as a response to nine American sailors arrested by the Mexican government for entering off-limit areas in Tampico, Tamaulipas on April 9, 1914.
  • The U.S. occupied Haiti from 1915 to 1934.
  • U.S. marines invaded the Dominican Republic and occupied it from 1916 to 1924.
  • On September 8, 1945, the United States government landed forces in Korea and thereafter established the United States Army Military Government in Korea (USAMGK) to govern Korea south of the 38th parallel north. The USAMGK outlawed the USSR approved Korean-led government in their respective half north of the 38th parallel. The military governor Lieutenant-General John R. Hodge later said that "one of our missions was to break down this Communist government".
  • Project SHAMROCK, the sister project for Project MINARET, was an espionage exercise started in August 1945, which involved the accumulation of all telegraphic data entering into or exiting from the United States. The Armed Forces Security Agency (AFSA) and its successor, the National Security Agency (NSA), were given direct access to daily microfilm copies of all incoming, outgoing, and transiting telegrams via the Western Union and its associates RCA and ITT. NSA did the operational interception, and, if there was information that would be of interest to other intelligence agencies, the material was passed to them. Intercepted messages were disseminated to the FBI, CIA, Secret Service, Bureau of Narcotics and Dangerous Drugs (BNDD), and the Department of Defense. No court authorized the operation and there were no warrants.
  • The democratically elected government of Shukri al-Quwatli was overthrown by a junta led by the Syrian Army chief of staff at the time, Husni al-Za'im, who became President of Syria on April 11, 1949. Za'im had extensive connections to CIA operatives, although the exact nature of U.S. involvement in the coup remains highly controversial. The construction of the Trans-Arabian Pipeline, which had been held up in the Syrian parliament, was approved by Za'im, the new president, just over a month after the coup.
  • In Operation Paper, which began in early 1951, secret flights from Thailand to Burma, Civil Air Transport aircraft (CAT, later named Air America), an airline co-owned and operated by the CIA and the Kuomintang in Taiwan, flown by pilots hired by the CIA brought American weapons and other supplies to the Kuomintang. To secretly finance the Kuomintang in Burma, on return flights the CAT aircraft transported opium from the Kuomintang to Chinese organized crime drug traffickers in Bangkok, Thailand.
  • CIA officer Kermit Roosevelt Jr. was dispatched by the State Department to meet with Farouk I of the Kingdom of Egypt. American policy at that time was to convince Farouk to introduce reforms that would weaken the appeal of Egyptian radicals and stabilize Farouk's grip on power. The U.S. was notified in advance of the successful July coup led by nationalist and anti-communist Egyptian military officers (the "Free Officers") that replaced the Egyptian monarchy with the Republic of Egypt under the leadership of Mohamed Naguib and Gamal Abdel Nasser. CIA officer Miles Copeland Jr. recounted in his memoirs that Roosevelt helped coordinate the coup during three prior meetings with the plotters (including Nasser, the future Egyptian president); this has not been confirmed by declassified documents but is partially supported by circumstantial evidence.
  • The 1953 Iranian coup d'état, known in Iran as the 28 Mordad coup d'état, was the overthrow of the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh in favour of strengthening the monarchical rule of the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi on 19 August 1953. It was orchestrated by the United States (under the name TPAJAX Project or "Operation Ajax") and the United Kingdom (under the name "Operation Boot").
  • In a CIA operation code named Operation PBSuccess, the U.S. government executed a coup that was successful in overthrowing the democratically elected government of President Jacobo Árbenz and installed Carlos Castillo Armas.
  • HTLINGUAL (also HGLINGUAL), a secret project of the United States of America's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) to intercept mail destined for the Soviet Union and China, operated from 1952 until 1973. Originally known under the codename SRPOINTER (also SGPOINTER), the project authority was changed in 1955 and renamed. Early on, the CIA collected only the names and addresses appearing on the exterior of mailed items, but they were later opened at CIA facilities in Los Angeles and in New York. The program had the stated purpose of obtaining foreign intelligence, but it targeted domestic peace and civil-rights activists as well. Mail to and from prominent individuals such as Bella Abzug, Bobby Fischer, Linus Pauling, John Steinbeck, Martin Luther King Jr., Edward Albee, and Hubert Humphrey was opened during the course of the operation. A total of 28 million letters were examined, and 215,000 were opened.
  • COINTELPRO (syllabic abbreviation derived from COunter INTELligence PROgram) was a series of covert and illegal projects conducted by the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) aimed at surveilling, infiltrating, discrediting, and disrupting domestic American political organizations.
  • Starting in 1962, the NSA had a "watch list" of Americans travelling to Cuba, expanded to include narcotic traffickers. Then, from 1967 onwards, President Lyndon B. Johnson included the names of activists in the anti-war movement. President Richard Nixon further expanded the list to include civil rights leaders, journalists and two senators. The NSA included David Kahn.
  • During the summer of 1962 Kennedy took steps, using the CIA, to spy on Hanson Baldwin, the national security reporter for The New York Times.
  • From mid-1963, the Kennedy administration became increasingly frustrated with South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem's corrupt and repressive rule and his persecution of the Buddhist majority. In light of Diem's refusal to adopt reforms, American officials debated whether they should support efforts to replace him. These debates crystallized after the ARVN Special Forces, which took their orders directly from the palace, raided Buddhist temples across the country, leaving a death toll estimated in the hundreds, and resulted in the dispatch of Cable 243 on August 24, 1963, which instructed United States Ambassador to South Vietnam, Henry Cabot Lodge Jr., to "examine all possible alternative leadership and make detailed plans as to how we might bring about Diem's replacement if this should become necessary". Lodge and his liaison officer, Lucien Conein, contacted discontented Army of the Republic of Vietnam officers and gave assurances that the US would not oppose a coup or respond with aid cuts. These efforts culminated in a coup d'état on November 2, 1963, during which Diem and his brother were assassinated.
  • Operation Brother Sam was the codename given to Kennedy's plan to "prevent Brazil from becoming another China or Cuba". Kennedy believed Goulart was getting too friendly with anti-American radicals in the Brazilian government.
  • From 1967 to 1973 under Project RESISTANCE, many local police departments, college campus staff members, and other independent informants collaborated with the CIA to keep track of student radical groups that opposed the U.S. government's foreign policies on Vietnam.
  • Project MERRIMAC was a sister domestic espionage operation to Project RESISTANCE coordinated under the Office of Security of the CIA. It involved information gathering procedures via infiltration and surveillance on Washington-based anti-war groups that might pose potential threats to the CIA.
  • The role of the CIA in Gladio—the extent of its activities during the Cold War era and any responsibility for terrorist attacks perpetrated in Italy during the "Years of Lead" (late 1960s to early 1980s)—are the subject of debate.
  • Syndicated columnist Jack Anderson published a series of classified documents indicating the Nixon administration, contrary to its public pronouncements, had favored Pakistan during the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. After the revelations, Anderson and his staff, including Hume and his family, were briefly surveilled by the Central Intelligence Agency in 1972.
  • In November 2005, Business Week reported that the FBI had issued tens of thousands of "national security letters" and had obtained one million financial records from the customers of targeted Las Vegas businesses. Selected businesses included casinos, storage warehouses and car rental agencies. An anonymous Justice official claimed that such requests were permitted under section 215 of the USA PATRIOT Act and despite the volume of requests insisted "We are not inclined to ask courts to endorse fishing expeditions". This didn't just include financial records, but credit records, employment records, and in some cases, health records.
  • Bank of America, the second-largest bank in the country, is coordinating with the government to search people who might have been in the Washington, D.C., area around the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol
TL;DR: Once you are in power; do you correct your policies according to the rioters, the mathematical measured outcomes, or your ideology? Or do you commit to not doing a thing, no matter how bad things get? Our politicians are using abstractions and models to decide what becomes horrible messes time and again. They will keep doing this.
 
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Dom Cruise

Happy summer, everybody!
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I wish. These days I'm more of the opinion that humanity will go out in a whimper rather than a bang.
Nah, I feel there's no way we're not going to go out with a bang.

We probably can't even comprehend the levels of violence there's going to be in the future, it's going to be brutality on a level that can only be described as "alien"
 

Un Platano

big blatano xDDDD
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Everything is building up to The Last War, the biggest war in human history that will dwarf the World Wars and will either render the human race extinct or usher in a utopia where there's never another war.
I know it might be hard to imagine that you're wrong and that you are not in fact a prophet, but there were people who believed the exact same thing in 1914 about the first world war, with much the same conviction, and now we think of the phrase "The War to End All Wars" as a funny joke. Either scenario, total human extinction or neverending utopia, are fantasies.
 

Lemmingwise

The Sneed is on
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Humanity cannot be trusted, only the numbers can
Ok but who recorded the numbers? Who stored them? Who interprets them? Who decides what interpretations are broadcast?

Once you are in power; do you correct your policies according to the rioters, the statistics, your ideology?
You do whatever the kennedy assassins tell you to do, or they'll release their epstein pics of you.


I think the elites are making a very simple Mistake​


I feel like I clicked on clickbait. What mistake?
 

Dom Cruise

Happy summer, everybody!
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I know it might be hard to imagine that you're wrong and that you are not in fact a prophet, but there were people who believed the exact same thing in 1914 about the first world war, with much the same conviction, and now we think of the phrase "The War to End All Wars" as a funny joke. Either scenario, total human extinction or neverending utopia, are fantasies.
WW1 was only a little over a hundred years ago, which isn't that long a span of time in the grand scheme of human history.

And to some degree what I'm talking about started with WW1, that was the first technological war, the first war where our destructive ability really started to get out of control.

And it's been a slow downward spiral to some degree ever since, WW1 set the stage for WW2 and WW2, although it's taking a long time, set the stage for WW3.

Maybe I'm being a bit melodramatic (who me?) and it won't lead to either human extinction or never ending utopia, but look at the situation in the west (and beyond it too) and tell me that isn't going to lead to another major war.

We had a golden opportunity after WW2 to get something close to a utopia, but we sure pissed that away.
 

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapercal
kiwifarms.net
Ok but who recorded the numbers? Who stored them? Who interprets them? Who decides what interpretations are broadcast?
Statistics like GDP and unemployment are gathered by third parties, and broadcast by the media, universities, and idiots like myself on the internet. During a war or the neverending domestic spying, the statistics are gathered by entry-level employees hoping for advancement or the very people advocating for federal policy.

You do whatever the kennedy assassins tell you to do, or they'll release their epstein pics of you.
The mob, Israelis, and ex-pat Cubans walk into a dark room..

I feel like I clicked on clickbait. What mistake?
The RAND corporation, Hayek, and the "Tavistock and Portman NHS Foundation Trust" have convinced British and American politicians to decide all their policies by statistics because they assume people lie about themselves so often you cannot base any policies on that. The result is the deep state always acts according to their worst paranoia, which is why America keeps couping countries dispute all feedback and social result from the last time they tried that.

why the long list of random stuff?
I'm trying to show America keeps making the same mistake, game theory and statistics suggest spying and couping governments are great ideas despite all evidence to the contrary after the fact.
 

Un Platano

big blatano xDDDD
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why the long list of random stuff?
Normally I would say autism but this time I'm going with schizophrenia. It's a common writing style among legitimate schizophrenics: drop a whole bunch of unrelated statements (Wikipedia links are a favorite among those on the internet) and expect you to figure out how they all the puzzle pieces fit together, because it makes so much sense in their perfectly sound mind that it shouldn't need explaining.

If OP is somehow neither of these then he is merely an awful writer who needs to learn how to structure a long essay and get to the point instead of writing giant incoherent walls of text.

I'm sticking to schizo though.
 
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Beautiful Border

kiwifarms.net
Nah, I feel there's no way we're not going to go out with a bang.

We probably can't even comprehend the levels of violence there's going to be in the future, it's going to be brutality on a level that can only be described as "alien"
IMO it's a fool's errand to try and predict the future in any long-term sense. Hell, just look at how off-the-mark most of the predictions of what the world would be like today from ten years ago are. The world moves at such a fast pace these days that you can't really reliably predict any more than a few months into the future, and even that's questionable.

People have been predicting the imminent end of civilisation since it began. Just look at the Millerites who predicted the end of the world in 1844, leading to the "Great Disappointment". The Jehovah's Witnesses have held firm that the end is imminent for over a century now. Even Jesus himself said to his apostles that they would live to see the apocalypse (one of the many things he said that theologians either conveniently ignore or perform Morshu beatboxing-esque mental gymnastics to try and explain away).

The only difference is that we now live in a post-religious society, so instead of using religion as the vehicle of the apocalypse we instead say that we'll wipe ourselves out with nuclear war or climate change. Apocalypticism has a two thousand year plus track record of being wrong, and I think as a concept it keeps appearing throughout history because people find it difficult to accept the fact that the world will continue to exist long after they themselves have gone, and in that sense it's quite a childish worldview.
 
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Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapercal
kiwifarms.net
Normally I would say autism but this time I'm going with schizophrenia. If OP is somehow neither of these then he is merely an awful writer who needs to learn how to structure a long essay and get to the point instead of writing giant incoherent walls of text.

I'm sticking to schizo though.
I am no mere awful writer, I am a truly awful writer who needs to learn how to structure a long essay and get to the point instead of writing giant incoherent walls of text.

..although I sometimes hear male voices which were often unclear, but which seemed to pronounce the words "empty", "hollow", or "thud", and nothing else. I'm also paranoid about mRNA vaccines which seem to do nothing, and I quickly (relatively) typed out a long list of black ops American won't stop doing before going to the movie I mentioned .

Do you think its Sluggish schizophrenia? I don't feel sluggish.
 

Un Platano

big blatano xDDDD
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I am no mere awful writer, I am a truly awful writer who needs to learn how to structure a long essay and get to the point instead of writing giant incoherent walls of text.

..although I sometimes hear male voices which were often unclear, but which seemed to pronounce the words "empty", "hollow", or "thud", and nothing else. I'm also paranoid about mRNA vaccines which seem to do nothing, and I quickly (relatively) typed out a long list of black ops American won't stop doing before going to the movie I mentioned .

Do you think its Sluggish schizophrenia? I don't feel sluggish.
No, I think it's regular schizophrenia. Please get help.
 

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapercal
kiwifarms.net
Honestly, I need to lay off the doomerposting and lighten up a bit.
Worse, what if your ideas are sound but they take decades to play out? I think the 2020s, once this covid nonsense blows over, should be enjoyed because the internet and society at large will never be the same or as nice as they are now. The worst that is going to play out in the timespan of the 20s is Venezuela might be invaded, but until the rising energy usage of the Saudis push them into a net importer of oil (25% and rising of their domestic production is domestically consumed) I don't foresee any natural reason to be worried in the short-term.

All things end though, that isn't absurd to assume.
 

Dom Cruise

Happy summer, everybody!
True & Honest Fan
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Worse, what if your ideas are sound but they take decades to play out? I think the 2020s, once this covid nonsense blows over, should be enjoyed because the internet and society at large will never be the same or as nice as they are now. The worst that is going to play out in the timespan of the 20s is Venezuela might be invaded, but until the rising energy usage of the Saudis push them into a net importer of oil (25% and rising of their domestic production is domestically consumed) I don't foresee any natural reason to be worried in the short-term.

All things end though, that isn't absurd to assume.
What I was talking about I wasn't trying to imply will necessarily happen tomorrow but at some point in human history.

And yeah, in theory nothing lasts forever, right?
 

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapercal
kiwifarms.net
What I was talking about I wasn't trying to imply will necessarily happen tomorrow but at some point in human history.

And yeah, in theory nothing lasts forever, right?
I find the idea that the west is doomed causes me to engage with it more, that something could be lost forever makes it beautiful in a way. We will never be here again, we will never be the same again.

I just wish the powers that be would stop using mathematical modeling and incentive structures to govern everything, the Vietnam war was lost to focusing on Loss exchange ratios rather than what could be done politically to deescalate the war, the NHS fell to Margret Thatcher's incentive scheme and "patient as consumer" myopia. The morality and ethos of the West is dying to modeling and centralizing. We are running out of ideas, and are content to dream smaller and smaller year after year.
 

Lemmingwise

The Sneed is on
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Statistics like GDP and unemployment are gathered by third parties, and broadcast by the media, universities, and idiots like myself on the internet. During a war or the neverending domestic spying, the statistics are gathered by entry-level employees hoping for advancement or the very people advocating for federal policy.
So, humans.

I find the idea that the west is doomed causes me to engage with it more, that something could be lost forever makes it beautiful in a way. We will never be here again, we will never be the same again.

I just wish the powers that be would stop using mathematical modeling and incentive structures to govern everything, the Vietnam war was lost to focusing on Loss exchange ratios rather than what could be done politically to deescalate the war, the NHS fell to Margret Thatcher's incentive scheme and "patient as consumer" myopia. The morality and ethos of the West is dying to modeling and centralizing. We are running out of ideas, and are content to dream smaller and smaller year after year.
Look politicians are doing that to escape blame and deep state is organising it this way so they can more easily control international affairs independant of current government. It's a way that politicians can get re-elected more easily.

Yes the centralizing is eroding all our freedoms and the semblance of democracy.

I guess what I'm surprised by is that you somehow think it is blundering or mistakes
'Im trying to show America keeps making the same mistake, game theory and statistics suggest spying and couping governments are great ideas despite all evidence to the contrary after the fact.
Why the fuck do you think your long list are mistakes? The US managed to build and control their panama canal for as long as it was strategically valuable, for example.

Do you think the centralizing force that is squeezing the life out of middleclass is failing? Having people believe it is incompetence is one of the prime ways to keep people in the dark. "Ich habe es nicht gewusst".
 

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