If the 22nd Amendment were to be repealed, could Obama win a 3rd term? - Obviously hypothetical

[JambledUpWords]

I’m curious of Obama’s overall popularity two years later. Sometimes I see comments around various places that if Obama could run again, he’d beat Trump.

Currently, the Democrats in Congress and in the media have gotten steadily worse reputations for the way they’ve been acting.

So my question for all of you who are interested in politics, is if Obama could run a third term, would he win?

 

[Bunny Tracks]

It would be possible, but I really don't think he would. I'm highly skeptical that he would even want to run again in the first place. I think his time has passed.

 

[Dirt McGirt]

I think the only people that might perform better than him in the Democratic party is Biden and if you wanna count him, Bernie.

 

[Clop]

If he brings the drones back, he's got my vote.

 

[IV 445]

It was actually written up within minutes of news of FDR’s demise, and was mostly designed for people like him who become so politically entrenched that they cannot be uprooted through conventional means.

Before FDR most presidents had honor, and respected the example of Washington, who served two terms, said “I am tired I want to go home” then just left.

 

[Richardo Retardo]

I think he would. Not because he was a good president, but because of the fact that the man Obama never really existed. For example, Obama's foreign policy resulted in the deaths of 100.000s of people, the overthrow of multiple legitimate governments, and expanded the number of conflicts that the US was involved in by 3 fold, but nobody ever thinks about that and they wouldn't even care about it if they did. You can say similar things about the effectiveness of pretty much everything he did but the war record is the most glaring example.
Obama was a cultural icon that made Americans feel happy because he was the avatar of "progress" regardless of his actual impact on the world. The average American will vote for the dopamine rush before ever thinking about the real world consequences.

 

[A Useless Fish]

The man was an egomaniac. If there wasn't a term limit, he would have had to have been dragged out of the Oval Office, possibly even after he had died.

 

[NOT Sword Fighter Super]

It would be possible, but I really don't think he would. I'm highly skeptical that he would even want to run again in the first place. I think his time has passed.

This. Eight years of running one of the most powerful countries in the world definitely takes it toll on a person. Remember this?

Spoiler: Clinton before and after:

Spoiler: And then now we have Obama:

 

[GS 281]

Yeah, if we're talking before 2016, he would have easily taken it. Trump won because Hillary is unelectable and she still almost won. In 2020? Trump has proven he won't slam the car into a wall and in general, I think people tire of the same person, so I think Trump would win, but it'd prob be a toss-up. It'd have to be a pretty shitty repub for Obama to win.

 

[Dirt McGirt]

yes, i think he would have won in 2016.


fucking bernie performing better than black jesus? are you out of your mind?

Black Jesus is damaged goods at this point. Bernie can at least play the whole I was betrayed card while Obama has what? 8 years of a mediocre at best presidency?

 

[MediocreMilt]

This. Eight years of running one of the most powerful countries in the world definitely takes it toll on a person. Remember this?

Spoiler: Clinton before and after:

Spoiler: Don't Forget This

Honestly, while he might be egomanical enough to run again, I think he was glad for the break. Maybe he'd come back later Teddy Roosevelt style, but by then, if the Democrats found a new standard bearer, he would be some guy pushing 60 against the new blood.

 

[NOT Sword Fighter Super]

Spoiler: Don't Forget This

View attachment 607227

Honestly, while he might be egomanical enough to run again, I think he was glad for the break. Maybe he'd come back later Teddy Roosevelt style, but by then, if the Democrats found a new standard bearer, he would be some guy pushing 60 against the new blood.

Looks like Moloch doesn't love him anymore...

 

[ForgedBlades]

Trump would have beaten a third term Obama in 2016. If Obama ran against Trump in 2020 he'd motivate enough of the Dem base to win handily.

 

[Vyxenn]

The 2016 election probably would have been a toss-up between Obama and Trump, had Obama been eligible for a third term.

 

[queerape]

You forgot to mention an important assumption: That this hypothetical repeal is retroactive. If it were effective only for the President at the time of the repeal and later presidents, Obama would still be bound by the 22nd amendment.

 

[Corbin Dallas Multipass]

You forgot to mention an important assumption: That this hypothetical repeal is retroactive. If it were effective only for the President at the time of the repeal and later presidents, Obama would still be bound by the 22nd amendment.

What?!? Nobody is bound by repealed amendments. It's not like they said "Sorry current slaves, only FUTURE slaves are prevented. Sucks to be you assholes."

 

[queerape]

What?‽ Nobody is bound by repealed amendments. It's not like they said "Sorry current slaves, only FUTURE slaves are prevented. Sucks to be you assholes."

Those currently affected by a law are usually included in non-retroactive rulings. If the repeal of the 22nd was non-retroactive, it can still start with the current president and everything beyond. It would have to be ex post facto (retroactive) to apply to former presidents like Obama. Law has to be quite specific.

 

[Corbin Dallas Multipass]

So when Obama tried to run for a third term, they'd say what? "That would have been unconstitutional if you had done it before we changed the constitution, so you can't"?

You can't punish a person for breaking a law that wasn't a law when they did the thing. You can keep a person in prison for breaking a law that is no longer a law.

So if Obama had tried to run for a third term before the theoretical amendment, obviously the not yet written amendment wouldn't apply, so he'd not be allowed. After the rules are changed, how are they going to hold him to a new law?

 

[verissimus]

Depends on the wording of the amendment repealing it. It's easily possible that some qualifier be added stating how the passage of the new amendment will not effect/be applicable to the current or past presidents as of the date in which enough states have ratified the amendment.

 

[Corbin Dallas Multipass]

Depends on the wording of the amendment repealing it. It's easily possible that some qualifier be added stating how the passage of the new amendment will not effect/be applicable to the current or past presidents as of the date in which enough states have ratified the amendment.

So then existing presidents themselves are enshrined into the law? Let's say theoretically bush 1 was still alive, and such a change were passed. He served 1 term. No matter what, he's eligible for a second term. So would this theoretical amendment say George Bush 1 can be president only 1 more time? Or is it only presidents who have already served their second term already?

My point is, the law would be applied at the time of running, not what the law was during the time of... which presidency?

What if it goes into effect before 2020 and trump is re-elected. Is he prevented from a third term somehow?

I just don't think you'd be able to get a court to enforce a repealed amendment under the argument that it was at one point not repealed. Unless, like you say, they specifically mention the individual presidents who are barred for running again. But they don't usually have constitutional amendments for individual people.