Law Justice Brett Kavanaugh Megathread - Megathread for Brett Kavanaugh, US Supreme Court Justice

Absolutego

kiwifarms.net
If it seems to have been successful with a lot of the American public, why would they stop now?
It's successful with their hardcore base and pretty much no one else. I think Democrats probably would've taken the Senate and be five or so more seats towards a supermajority in the House if it hadn't been for their conduct during the Kavanaugh hearing. When my Boomer-as-fuck Democrat parents start thinking "ok this is getting a bit absurd" around the time Avenatti latched onto the drama, you know the DNC fucked up.
 

Adamska

Last Gunman
True & Honest Fan
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It's successful with their hardcore base and pretty much no one else. I think Democrats probably would've taken the Senate and be five or so more seats towards a supermajority in the House if it hadn't been for their conduct during the Kavanaugh hearing. When my Boomer-as-fuck Democrat parents start thinking "ok this is getting a bit absurd" around the time Avenatti latched onto the drama, you know the DNC fucked up.
Eh, I could've seen one or two more seats flipping if the Dems were being semi-sane and using their funds even semi-competently, since the Senate seats were actually pretty much the best set-up that the Republicans could've hoped for. A more sane and competent campaign definitely could've snagged more than the 30 or so seats they got... but they ain't gonna get that unless they also lose 2020.
 

Absolutego

kiwifarms.net
I'm sorry, but exactly what incentive do the Democrats have to change course?

They are banking on demographic changes to automatically give them victories. It's not a bad strategy, just very long-term.
-Their funding has completely dried up in the wake of 2016 and what sources of capital they can still draw from (Hollywood, Wall Street) are not happy about the woke socialists in the party wanting to massively increase tax revenue
-Speaking of tax revenue, a number of Democrat-controlled cities (aka their source of political capital) are now murmuring quite a lot more about the lack of results they're getting from their exorbitant tax rates now that they can't write it off on their Federal taxes post-Republican tax reform in 2017. If residents in those cities could agree on a viable candidate to replace establishment Democrats the party's days would be numbered
-They continue to contend with a Republican party that spent the Obama administration taking over state legislatures and are 4 states away from being able to call a constitutional convention on their own
-It's extremely likely that if they lose 2020 Trump gets to outdo Reagan and pack the Supreme Court with 4 or more young conservative justices.

It's not the end of the party or anything, but Democrats absolutely shouldn't be banking on importing a new voting base to win long-term and are in dire need of a change in direction. It'll be interesting to see what camps survive the 2020 primary and what sort of Democrat platform develops afterwards.
 

Shadfan666xxx000

kiwifarms.net
I'm sorry, but exactly what incentive do the Democrats have to change course?

They are banking on demographic changes to automatically give them victories. It's not a bad strategy, just very long-term.
If the Republican Congress and president are aggressive enough on healthcare, education and law enforcement, they could sink very deep roots into the American consensus like the left has gradually done.
 
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heyitsmike

The beatings will continue until morale improves.
kiwifarms.net
They are banking on demographic changes to automatically give them victories. It's not a bad strategy, just very long-term.
It is a bad strategy. They've been claiming demographic changes will put the GOP out of business for years.
After the 2016 election, the GOP was at its most powerful since the 1920s.
Sure, since then they've lost the House (temporarily), but they've also put Gorusch and Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.
We are just entering the golden age of the Republican Party.
 

Tanner Glass

kiwifarms.net
I'm sorry, but exactly what incentive do the Democrats have to change course?

They are banking on demographic changes to automatically give them victories. It's not a bad strategy, just very long-term.
In additon to the other replies, but the Democrats need to change course because they've got a long term strategy (as you mentioned) and a short term strategy.

The short term strategy is to make deals and promises to secure votes now so they can enact their long term strategy. If they can't execute their short term strategy, they'll never be in a position to execute their long term strategy.

Their short term strategy is platitudes and the Republicans are murdering them on it, such as the New Congressmen (Omar, AOC, etc) and the Green New Deal. The party itself is fractured (2016 Primaries and Bernie Sanders) and Donald Trump is getting enough results on some key issues (economy, prison reform, taxes) that he's appealing to centrists/moderate Democrats.
 

X Prime

kiwifarms.net
The short term strategy is to make deals and promises to secure votes now so they can enact their long term strategy. If they can't execute their short term strategy, they'll never be in a position to execute their long term strategy.

Their short term strategy is platitudes and the Republicans are murdering them on it, such as the New Congressmen (Omar, AOC, etc) and the Green New Deal. The party itself is fractured (2016 Primaries and Bernie Sanders) and Donald Trump is getting enough results on some key issues (economy, prison reform, taxes) that he's appealing to centrists/moderate Democrats.
This makes sense, except didn't Joe Biden himself, as centrist Dem as you can get, basically say guys like him are a dying breed?

The thing with Dem promises is that once they are enacted, it magically becomes impossible to reverse them in any way (see: DACA being somehow literally illegal to reverse), and they pay dividends down the line in more votes for them. The nature of Republican victories, however, tend to not result in guaranteed voters later.

Meanwhile, Dem losses don't seem to pull votes away from them as fast as they gain them through time. Further, with the continuing transplantation of Californians to other states due to rising housing costs, their influence is spreading from their usual strongholds.

Sure, we all make fun of AOC and Omar, but does that actually mean more people like them will not get elected? AOC might get primaried over the Amazon thing, but I don't see Omar losing anytime soon.

It seems to me that it's not that Republicans are gaining votes, it is that they are getting better at maximizing turnout. If Dems could do the same, as in the Roy Moore fiasco in Alabama where all sorts of groups converged to increase Dem turnout while suppressing Republican turnout, then I do not see how Rs could reliably keep winning over the years assuming everything else holds.

Plus there;'s the problem that Rs as a party are not exactly great either.
 

Ruin

#respectskeltins
True & Honest Fan
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as in the Roy Moore fiasco in Alabama where all sorts of groups converged to increase Dem turnout
It's worth noting however that despite Moore being an actual literal pedophil he barely lost, it was almost close enough to trigger a recount.

True Alabama is red as fuck but that does not bode well for the Democrats as a national party.
 

Tanner Glass

kiwifarms.net
This makes sense, except didn't Joe Biden himself, as centrist Dem as you can get, basically say guys like him are a dying breed?
Biden can say that and as politicians he may be right, but most people (Democrat and Republican) are centrists and/or single issue voters. Most people who vote for a party don't care about everything the party stands for (and there are only two parties) and most rational people care about themselves and their families first.

The thing with Dem promises is that once they are enacted, it magically becomes impossible to reverse them in any way (see: DACA being somehow literally illegal to reverse), and they pay dividends down the line in more votes for them. The nature of Republican victories, however, tend to not result in guaranteed voters later.

Meanwhile, Dem losses don't seem to pull votes away from them as fast as they gain them through time. Further, with the continuing transplantation of Californians to other states due to rising housing costs, their influence is spreading from their usual strongholds.
This a matter of some debate, but I would put this under "Republicans killing Democrats with their own words". DACA (and all other immigration reform) does nothing to help existing voters or their issues (crime rates, poor policing, rampant drug usage, homeless problems, skyrocketing rent/housing costs) and instead makes it much, much worse.

This is the type of things that gets people to leave the Democratic party (temporarily or permanently), when you're in one of the strongholds (Seattle, San Fran, New York, Sacramento, etc) and paying huge amounts of rent and huge amounts of taxes and getting nothing and seeing your leaders care more about illegal immigrants than you. There are families being forced to leave these areas because they simply can't afford it while the blue government in charge wastes money hand over fist. I can imagine (and it happens) that if you grew up in Seattle only to be forced out by Amazon fuckery that you would hold a grudge.

If you were renting a 2 bedroom in seattle in 2010, your rent was ~$900/month (already on the high side). If you're renting that same 2BR now it's $1800/month and wages have not increased nearly enough to keep pace, you'll have to move. Meanwhile that same government is spending, on average, $90,000/year per homeless person to try and fix the huge homeless problem and has 0 results to show for it.

There are even some places (Flint) where a democratic government can't even provide clean god damn water from a faucet.

People leaving these areas may stay blue, but it's unlikely and mainly is over-represented by Californians/New Yorkers fleeing those areas for other blue areas (California to Reno/Vegas and the blue parts of texas; NY to Boston and New Jersey).


Sure, we all make fun of AOC and Omar, but does that actually mean more people like them will not get elected? AOC might get primaried over the Amazon thing, but I don't see Omar losing anytime soon.
AOC and Omar's challenge isn't electability (although AOC basically stole her election), it's dealing with the Democratic party. The Democrats are going to try and unseat AOC by getting someone to run against her or by eliminating the district she represents. She's done some real and lasting damage to the party.

Omar I can see going in the same way, because being vaguely anti-semitic is not going to endear her to party leaders or big financiers (who are frequently Jewish).

It seems to me that it's not that Republicans are gaining votes, it is that they are getting better at maximizing turnout. If Dems could do the same, as in the Roy Moore fiasco in Alabama where all sorts of groups converged to increase Dem turnout while suppressing Republican turnout, then I do not see how Rs could reliably keep winning over the years assuming everything else holds.

Plus there;'s the problem that Rs as a party are not exactly great either.
As bad as Roy Moore's fiasco was (and it was, he was garbage) the Democrats have capitalized on that by putting themselves on the losing end of much larger and more hilarious fiascos (the 2016 DNC Primary and General Election, the Kavanaugh hearings, anything Avenetii did before he got indicted, Beto O'Rorke getting beat by Cruz) that Moore is a distant footnote.

I don't think either party (or any politican) is "good" but Republicans are the party that seems to be getting better while the Democrats are sinking further under the weight of their own incompetence. If you strip out any political allegiance you may have and strictly look at both parties in the context of "What have you done for me lately?" what can you honestly say about Democrats?

They wasted $25,000,000 on a "special report" that found nothing on the sitting president, after two years of witch hunting. They turned a nomination of a really milquetoast man to the supreme court into embarrassing tabloid nonsense. They once again made asses of themselves during the State of the Union address.

Republicans, while they haven't been 100% successful, have been fighting democrats very smartly. They're tackling illegal immigration in a number of ways, which as someone from places where immigration is pretty bad, is huge to me. In the new tax code, I paid $5,000 less in taxes for the last fiscal year, which is huge to me. Trump in particular has laid bare the general awfulness of the traditional news media and has made impressively large strides in making the entire world a safer place (Getting the UN to increase their defense spending instead of just the US, peace talks with N. Korea, brokering talks between N and S Korea, etc).

If you really look at it from a normal voter's point of view, it becomes really hard to pull that "D" lever.

It's worth noting however that despite Moore being an actual literal pedophil he barely lost, it was almost close enough to trigger a recount.

True Alabama is red as fuck but that does not bode well for the Democrats as a national party.
Not only did Moore barely lose, but he's looking like the front runner to challenge Jones in 2020 and would be favored to win if he does so.

EDIT - This all doesn't just apply to white families, by the way. Black and Hispanic families are typically the first groups run out of areas being "Gentrified" and typically live in the most hellish of Democrat controlled areas. Blacks and Hispanics were also the "first" voting blocs inducted by Democrats and they've had exactly 0 of thier problems fixed before being left behind for the "new voting hotness" of Transgendered people and illegal immigrants, which means you'll likely see more "old" Democrat voters switching sides.
 
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Your Weird Fetish

Intersectional fetishist
kiwifarms.net
Roy Moore is a terrible candidate who consistently underperforms polling data. Virtually the only way the Republicans would not take back that senate seat is by running Moore again. But they won't. He's an embarassment. Him even getting the nomination last time was a fluke (two never Trumpers in a deep Trump state were his opposition and one of them was massively involved in local government corruption scandal).

He is not, however, a pedophile. No evidence of such was ever offered. He's a creep that prefers women in their late teens, but the pedophilia thing had as much substance as Kavanaugh's rape accusations.
 

X Prime

kiwifarms.net
Roy Moore is a terrible candidate who consistently underperforms polling data. Virtually the only way the Republicans would not take back that senate seat is by running Moore again. But they won't. He's an embarassment. Him even getting the nomination last time was a fluke (two never Trumpers in a deep Trump state were his opposition and one of them was massively involved in local government corruption scandal).

He is not, however, a pedophile. No evidence of such was ever offered. He's a creep that prefers women in their late teens, but the pedophilia thing had as much substance as Kavanaugh's rape accusations.
Honestly, Moore only lost because of a coordinated campaign to maximize Dem turnout and minimize Rep turnout from social shame. It probably will not work again.
 
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Your Weird Fetish

Intersectional fetishist
kiwifarms.net
Honestly, Moore only lost because of a coordinated campaign to maximize Dem turnout and minimize Rep turnout from social shame. It probably will not work again.
Moore lost because he's an exceptional individual. He took the HIllary strategy of barely campaigning, which honestly was probably the right move on his part because like her he's a charisma black hole.
 

X Prime

kiwifarms.net
Then how exactly did he beat his primary challengers, even if they were NeverTrumpers?

Come on, let's be real. Without the WaPo smearjob and subsequent full court media press, and stuff like the NAACP coming out in force to whip people to the polls, Jones would have had absolutely nothing.
 
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