No one really likes to talk about this, because it's icky and makes folk with small kids feel bad, but the truth is that looking after a bundle of very small kids is actually quite hard. I do this myself 24/7, and I would never admit under my own name that quite often my head is fucking busted by it.
I love my children more than anything or anyone. I also by about 6pm in the day have had three kids under five tag teaming me with needs, demands, various toddler tantrums, and general 'we are small and we need 100% of your attention, handmaiden!' shit for nearly 12 hours. And it's about three or four hours until my spouse will come home, so I have to hold on and navigate dinner, bathtime and bedtime and pray I get 20 minutes peace to myself before I have to cook his dinner and start the housework.
And I stay at home full time with my kids, so I KNOW that they bust my head. I am used to this bullshit. I know how to manage the worst of it, and how to avoid setting most of it off. One of the main ways I know to avoid setting it off is not to fuck with the important parts of their routine too much, because the wheels can come off my overpopulated bus pretty quickly and my spouse has the patience of a pit bull when forced to spend time with his small family.
Kate and Gerry McCann worked full time with long hours and relied on paid childcare and grandparents to be with Madeleine and the twins most of the hours the kids were awake. The level of "three kids under five" bullshit they were used to in any given day was maybe on a heavy day eating breakfast with them and getting home in time for goodnight kiss. They were not used to handling all their shit 24/7... and then they took them abroad for a fortnight.
If you've ever gone on holiday with small kids of your own or little siblings, you know that strange food, a strange place to sleep, and different activities frequently blows your average toddler's mind. They sleep badly and an underslept toddler is able to pass that pain on to all around them with great skill.
My gut feeling about Madeleine's death is that frankly Gerry and Kate's minds were fucking blown by the late afternoon that day, and they gave Madeleine something to keep her quiet and go the fuck to sleep. Benadryl has been mentioned. It's also known that Kate wasn't able to account for all the Valium that was in her GP's home visiting bag.
I think they took a calculated risk that they would quiet her down some, and I think after she took whatever she was given, she was drowsy and fell and got a head injury. I do not believe they intended to harm her, but due to their professional background, they realised an autopsy would show some form of drug in Madeleine's system. At which point they would lose custody of the twins.
I think they made a terrible, terrifying choice over the body of their tiny daughter to cover up her death and their part in it in order to keep the twins and maintain something of the life they once led. I think that accounts for the "extra" mileage on Gerry's hire car and the missing suitcase that they arrived with but subsequently "lost" in the hotel. I think that accounts for the blood traces in the apartment and in the boot of the hire car. I think that explains why Madeleine's soft toy was washed before the police ever were called.
I don't think there was ever a break in and I think Madeleine was dead some time before they went out to establish the "tapas alibi".
Praia da Luz has a nearby and pretty deserted beach. I think Gerry put Madeleine in the "missing" suitcase and put her into the sea. I think whether they repented subsequently of what they had done, the lie they had told and the deception they had engaged in was so terrible that there was no way back to the truth. So they have to keep fuelling this terrible conspiracy theory that someone took and hurt Madeleine, because they can't have any more scrutiny come any closer to them.
I don't think any part of their story about what they did with their children that night bears examination, and I think the willingness of the British establishment and Gerry's fellow Freemasons to protect the McCanns is absolutely dreadful.
I feel most sorry for the twins, who have had to grow up with a missing sister and the cloud of suspicion that surrounds her death and their parents' part in it. They were too young to remember anything that happened that day and that night and I fear at some level not knowing what really happened will affect them in later life.