World North Korea Megathread - Dear Leader and his shenanigans

Will our great nation The Democratic People's Republic of Korea succeed?

  • Dear leader will guide us to glory

  • Everyone goes to the labor prisons

  • Trump nukes Kim Jong Un a new anus

  • DPRK starves to death before anything interesting happens


Results are only viewable after voting.

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
About what I expected honestly. At least this time around we didn’t cancel military exercises in exchange for nothing.
Agreed, the DPRK's long term plans rely on being a nuclear state.

And this does fit with a running theory of mine that if the DPRK question isn't solved diplomatically by the 2020 election, it will be solved militarily by 2022.
 

ICametoLurk

SCREW YOUR OPTICS, I'M GOING IN
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
when the President of the US says the truth and the media goes insane


Otto Warmbier: Trump defends Kim over US student's death

US President Donald Trump has defended North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in the case of an American college student who died after being jailed by North Korea.
Speaking in Hanoi after his summit with Mr Kim broke down, Mr Trump said he did not believe the North Korean leader was aware of Otto Warmbier's ordeal.
Mr Trump said: "He tells me he didn't know about it, and I will take him at his word."
The US president said: "I did speak about it, and I don't believe that he would have allowed that to happen.
"It just wasn't to his advantage to allow that to happen. Prisons are rough, they're rough places, and bad things happened."
He said Mr Kim "felt very badly about it", adding: "He knew the case very well, but he knew it later. In those prisons, those camps, you have a lot of people."
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-47404629

Daily reminder that the thief Otto Warmbier was not harmed by the DPRK. It was a suicide attempt.
 

tyjc

kiwifarms.net
Otto Warmbier: Trump defends Kim over US student's death













https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-47404629

Daily reminder that the thief Otto Warmbier was not harmed by the DPRK. It was a suicide attempt.
Regardless of whether Kim was responsible or not, this line of thinking is really exceptional. Is Trump just meant to ruin the potential deal of a lifetime over one fucking person? You have peace, denuclearisation, and prosperity all on the line and yet these clowns are worried about one person who is already dead. Where is the logic?
 

XYZpdq

fbi most wanted sskealeaton
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Regardless of whether Kim was responsible or not, this line of thinking is really exceptional. Is Trump just meant to ruin the potential deal of a lifetime over one fucking person? You have peace, denuclearisation, and prosperity all on the line and yet these clowns are worried about one person who is already dead. Where is the logic?
I'm gonna set my 8 ball to say
China said don't do it or else.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
-Large-scale joint exercises Key Resolve and Foal Eagle have been canceled in favor of several smaller ones. This was expected.

Now, what does smaller mean? Who knows, It could be basically what we have now, but with a different name, or a series of small rolling drills that never really stop. Bottom line, we don't know right now.

Either way, this is something to keep an eye on, along with the reactions from North Korea.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net

-"North Korean food production is at the lowest point in a decade." -the UN.
-We must help the poor North Koreans by sending food and money, that surely wont be used to continue to prop up the dictatorship, at the expense of the North Korean people. - Also the UN.


North Korea continue to use the Uranium Enrichment facility at Yongbyon. The Plutonium production is still halted from December last year. U.S. experts believe that the North is able to produce two to three nuclear weapons a year even without the Yongbyon facility.
-"Yongbyon accounts for a maximum 50 percent of North Korea's total nuclear weapons"
-"North Korea is estimated to be able to produce around 80 kg of highly enriched uranium annually at facilities other than Yongbyon,"


“If they’re not willing to do it, then I think President Trump has been very clear ... they’re not going to get relief from the crushing economic sanctions that have been imposed on them and we’ll look at ramping those sanctions up in fact,” -Bolton


Reports of a recent briefing by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) to the National Assembly’s intelligence committee noted that North Korea has started restoring structures on the rocket launch pad at its Sohae Satellite Launching Station (Tongchang-ri).


Separately, two U.S. senators sought to dial up pressure on North Korea by reintroducing a bill on Tuesday to impose sanctions on any bank that does business with its government.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
Here is the Daily DPRK Update:
Good article with commercial satellite footage of the Sonhae Launch Facility.
-Sonhae has been completely reassembled.
-It is a space launch facility primarily, not a weapons test facility.

-Sonhae not intrinsic to ballistic missile program
-If they launch anything, it would be a Space Launch Vehicle

Warning from the past: DPRK likes to use SLVs to make political point and blow up deals, while being less salacious than an "actual" ICBM test. A few option for space launch:
  • A launch of the standard Unha (old SLV) that wouldn’t contribute much to ICBM development since Pyongyang has learned everything it can learn from that SLV from previous tests;
  • A launch of a new SLV using the more powerful engines found on the Hwasong family of ICBMs that would benefit the development of its long-range missiles;
  • A launch of a new SLV using the first stage of the Hwasong-15 ICBM that would allow Pyongyang to acquire performance data directly applicable to further ICBM development; or
  • The North could plan a failed satellite launch with something akin to a re-entry vehicle descending from the third stage of the SLV to covertly perfect a design.
To quote Vipin Narang a Nuclear Anti-Proliferation wonk whose takes are usually trash:
So begins the Sonhae Showdown. What’s behind Door #1 Bob? An Unha! You win a hell of a pickle. And behind Door #2? A HS-15 ICBM painted white! You win a hell of a collision course!

USA asks for "clarification" on Sonhae missile site reassembly.
-Hey buddy, what are you doing?

There will be no exemptions from the sanctions for Inter-Korean projects.

"artificial" seismic activity, presumed to be the result of an explosion inside a mine a few miles away from the DMZ.
-no it isn't Nuclear.

North Korea is not responding to requests for information about Korean War body recovery.

Supplies being transported to Sanumdong ICBM manufacturing and testing facility outside of Pyongyang.

North Korea reeees about joints US-RoK training drills.

Some day, when I have too much time on my hands, I am going to have to do a full write up in regards to the DPRK. But not right now.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
Today in the DPRK:
Satellite imagery has shown that the Sanumdong, the ICBM and SLV (Space Launch Vehicle) factory has been busy. However, the activity has come to a close yesterday as one of two things have occurred:
1. They have paused their factory work on a new missile.
2. They have already finished assembling it.
A train already went out from Sanumdong, so it is either going to get supplies or it is delivering a missile.

As a side note, Jeffery Lewis is a fucking career cow. He is a decent image analyst, and he can model ballistic missiles well enough. However, when he speaks about anything outside of that, he turns into an idiot.

Missile work at Sanumdong had been going on since before the Hanoi summit.

Also: The Washington Post can die in a fire. I provided the archive link as a protest against their ad policy.

Looks like the Sohae/Dongchang-ri/Tongchang-ri facility is being prepared to receive a missile of some kind. New structures have been put into place on the Vertical Engine Test Stand and the Launch Pad to conceal whatever may be put into them. The rail-mounted transfer system has also been moved back to the processing facility to further obfuscate future proceedings.

Moon Jae-In has appointed the most dovish, pro-DPRK, pro-engagement, academic in charge of relations with Pyongyang.

Moon Jae-In and his left wing party are trying to appease the Norks as much as they can. As Moon's party has built its entire election campaign around there being no missile launches in return for a dovish stance from South Korea.

"a great progress will be made in socialist economic construction," - Korean Central News Agency
"Achtung economy!" - Kim Jong-Un, probably.

Has your crypto-coin disappeared? Blame the DPRK and their $670 Million of stolen cryptocurrency.

___

If the missile/space-launch happens at Sohae, we are well within our right to sanction the shit out of North Korea according to UNSCR 2087 and other international laws.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
Today in the DPRK:
690992


The Glorious People's Republic of Korea is hosting it's 14th Supreme People's Assembly Parliamentary Elections! If you are a Citizen of the DPRK and 17 years old or older: please join us for Mandatory Voting for the Approved Candidate! Remember, you must cast your Vote between 9 a.m. and 6 p.m. Pyongyang time.
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4 U-2 Spy aircraft have returned to Osan Air Base (Korea) after 40 days of absence while being based in Kadena Air Base (Okinawa). The aircraft have a relatively low range, so being as far away as they were, would have prohibited their use against North Korea for that time. They also were not a part of any larger drill going on at the time, that we know of.

I don't have any "real" source for this, but I heard it through the grape vine, that the U-2s were going through extended servicing. This would be to prepare them for heavy usage without regular maintenance. I can't verify that though. So if something else shows up about them, don't be too shocked.
___
Statements from Bolton regarding the DPRK:
691020

691026

He's not wrong.
___
"Why reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex (Joint RoK/DPRK factory/pipe-dream) won’t violate sanctions."

The article is bullshit: UNSCR 2375 and UNSCR 2094 flat out ban what they are thinking about doing. Not that it would stop them if they are really that determined.
___

KCNA mentions North Korean made artificial satellites for the first time since January. make of that what you will.
___

More commercial satellite imagery should be out tomorrow. Will try to keep everyone updated here.
 

Techpriest

Praise the Machine Spirits
kiwifarms.net
They’re going to do an ICBM test. They’re trying to send a message about the sanctions. It’s their standard saber rattling, except that now they got an actual (minor) concession out of the Capitalist imperialist pigdogs they’ve been saber rattling for years about beforehand.

There’s no reason for NK to be serious about denuclearization without receiving extreme concessions and promises that are simply untenable for everyone else around them.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
Alright, The news was fairly slow today. The imagery analysis houses haven’t come out with anything yet. So I thought I would give a brief overview of the big argument going on in the DRPK analysis “”””community.””””

The Issue at hand is how to denuclearize North Korea.

This argument is between two beliefs: Incrementalism vs CVID (Complete Verifiable and Irreversible Denuclearization) First.

Incrementalist like Jeffery Lewis and Vipin Narang believe that pushing for CVID first (or at all) is a non-starter for the DPRK. North Korea just won’t accept a situation like that. Incrementalist believe that pushing for CVID first could easily lead to war.

Both of those opinions are probably true.

The Plan outlined by them goes something like this:
  1. A series of reciprocal “trust building” steps
  2. Once trust has been built, North Korea would begin disassembling missile production facilities and uranium enrichment facilities. Meanwhile in reciprocation, we partially lift sanctions or remove some troops.
  3. Disassembly of North Korean nuclear stockpile, lifting of all sanctions, and removal of all foreign troops from Korea.

Or something roughly like that,

Many Incrementalists think that the peace must be kept at all costs. Perhaps even at the cost of allowing North Korea to pursue the Vietnam model of reunification with "Korean characteristics”. For most, if the options are nuclear DPRK or war, then peace will be kept.

CVID First advocates like Joshua Stanton and B. R. Myers point out that we have tried the Incrementalist approach before in 1994, 2007, and 2012.

Which is absolutely true.

Most CVID first champions believe that even the lightest concessions give North Korea too much in return for whatever action they take in return. They believe that sanction campaigns will force North Korea to denuclearize. Therefore, we must use “Maximum Pressure” to bring the DPRK into WMD compliance. No relief is to be given until that point is reached.

A large proportion of CVID First proponents believe that North Korea must be brought to heel. If that cannot happen, then the DPRK must be destroyed.
___
So, what is my take?

North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons peacefully. It is integral to the very concept of the DPRK. I could go into more depth and probably will later. Anyway, anyone who says that they can negotiate North Korea into denuclearizing is either deluded or setting the political stage.

Personally, I think there is going to be a war. There has to be one soon, or there will be severe consequences (I will write about that some time). Additionally, I think the collateral damage of said war will be relatively minor compared to media projections (I have hard data to back that up, will post it in the coming days).
___
I will update this post with DPRK related news tonight.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
Did I say I was updating this thread last night... Yeah I totally meant tonight.

So, today in the DPRK: The imagery houses STILL haven't put out new shit.
___
Looks like that train from the Sanumdong factory is/was heading to Sohae.

We still don't know if a missile was on the train.
___
Moon Jae-In's approval rating has fallen for the second week straight. This time falling 3.1% to total 46.3%.

North Korea not playing ball hurt Moon more than anything else right now because he isn't able to claim any other victory.
___

wow, look North Korea evading sanctions without major repercussions.
___
Meanwhile: Moon Jae-In claims that he is not the top spokesman for Kim Jong-Un. By trying to censure and legally punish an opposition politician who called Moon the top spokesman for Kim.
___
Here is an article that summarizes the recent missile test indicators. The article isn't an absolute trashfire, so it has that going for it.
___

That's all for tonight folks.
 

BONE_Buddy

That Defense Sperg.
kiwifarms.net
Today in the DPRK:

New satellite imagery out shows that there is no more construction work being done at the Sohae Satellite Launch Facility. Construction is complete.

RoK government confirms "physical restoration" of the launch site.

But don't worry says the ruling party of South Korea: "North Korea repaired the Punggye-ri site before an inspection team visited it to see its demolition (in May last year). We've guessed that the Dongchang-ri restoration this time had the same purpose," -Democrat controlled defense ministry.


The thing about the Punggye-ri site was that it was an active site that basically needed the grass cut before outsiders showed up. So North Korea putting so much effort into Rebuilding a disassembled test site is unlikely as all hell.

Nathan J Hunt is an expert on DPRK missile testing, and has a modicum of common fucking sense.

Punggye-ri was ballistic missile testing site that they had no use for anymore. As any straight-up ballistic missile tests from here on out will be using TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers, i.e. mobile launchers). Sohae is a dual use facility, North Korea needs it to launch satellites, and give ballistic missile test a least a paper thin disguise.
___

OwO, what is this? An RC-135U in the Western Pacific?


The RC-135U Combat Sent is the premier class electronic surveillance aircraft in the inventory of the United States. We only have two of these birds and they spend most of their time in their hangers.

I wonder what is happening to get one of these birds moving over there. Could it be an imminent missile launch?
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The US, Japan, and Britain are going to be conducting a moderately large joint submarine hunting exercise.

make of that what you will.
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Sanctions work when... when we can enforce them. - the UN.


North Korea is flagrantly violating sanctions, and is "covertly" building missiles at "civilian" facilities.
___

"The U.N. Panel of Experts has released its latest report, and for the first time since it began publishing them in 2009, it is now investigating South Korea for violating the sanctions. One area the Panel is looking into is its imports of North Korean coal for ten months, in violation of UNSCR 2371, while its Coast Guard dragged out an “investigation” of those imports, allowed the smuggling ships to come and go freely without seizing them, and later charged a few small-time scapegoats. " - Joshua Stanton, A man "thrice cursed by North Korea."

Looks like South Korea is being investigated for sanctions violations. About fucking time. The article is worth the read.

Gee, I wonder what else the South Koreans have been lying about:

oh...

Looks like North Korea has been operating, that 5-Megawatt Plutonium Enrichment Reactor at Yongbyon, continuously since December 2015.

This directly contradicts South Korea's Intelligence Chief (political appointee) who said the facility had been shut down since last year.

See the intel chiefs statements from just a few posts ago.

The US endorses the UNs view on these matters.
____
In happier news:

It was the CIA who broke into the North Korean Embassy in Madrid last month. We stole a lot of valuable stuff. Including computers and files.

___

Looks like that is all for tonight folks.
 
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