Pool for how much of the vote Wu gets in the primary -

[TheMonkeyMan]

Just how much of the vote will Wu get in the primary? I decided to start this thread so Kiwis can make their predictions and we can see who gets the closest.

My prediction is 6.6%.


http://electionstats.state.ma.us/el...ffice_id:5/district_id:23598/stage:Democratic

 

[NIGGO KILLA]

only 7 votes

 

[Norvic]

0.5%. Hardly anyone in the district will ever have heard of Wu, and even the "anyone but Lynch" crew will be divided among Wu and Voehl.

I can't imagine Wu's get out the vote operation on election day is going to be spectacular. Can you imagine Wu shuttling oldsters to their local polling place in her Porsche?

 

[Marvin]

What's the primary in this area (and for the Dems) like?

Are we expecting just like everyday people to be voting? A la a general election?

If so, I think your estimate is in the neighborhood, but I'm going to go a little lower: 4.4%

 

[FP 208]

I don't think Brianna will even go to a booth to vote for himself. I assume they'll just say they are sick and memory hole the whole adventure after lynch wins in a landslide. under 2%.

 

[BlueArmedDevil]

Less then .02%

 

[IV 445]

Can you vote for yourself?

If so, 1. Not even Frank will vote for John

 

[REGENDarySumanai]

Not a winning vote, but definitely less than 5 percent of the vote.

 

[Norvic]

What's the primary in this area (and for the Dems) like?

Are we expecting just like everyday people to be voting? A la a general election?

If so, I think your estimate is in the neighborhood, but I'm going to go a little lower: 4.4%

No one knows this primary is supposed to be competitive, so no one is going to turn out unless they're specifically organised in to doing so.
Lynch has an organisation, volunteers and money to get people to polls. Wu has Frank and Warren. It's going to be a massacre.

 

[Francis York Morgan]

Less than 1%. I'd honestly be surprised if Brianna even got 200 votes. I know there's a liberal contingent in the district that don't like Lynch but Wu is a joke even among them. Those groups would be better served running an independent candidate than trying to prop up Brianna.

 

[spiritofamermaid]

I think something like 1-1.5%. I know people outside of the district (as well as inside) were initially supportive of Wu, but in a way that would make Lynch more progressive (which was what they wanted). So I think that trend will extend to the election, so that Wu gets something like what I guessed.

 

[Coconut Gun]

<0.1% because that's probably the number they default to when someone gets like 3 votes.

 

[Sylvie Paula Paula]

One. One what? You decide.

 

[Hiragana]

The amount of Kiwis in the 8th District + Warren, Frank and Brianna.

 

[Four-Wheeled Fedora]

1%

 

[DragoonSierra]

300 votes.

 

[CWCissey]

1% with an error margin of 1%.

 

[Raging Capybara]

10 to 30 votes.

 

[Sperglord Dante]

3%

I believe there's a 3% of the population who'd vote an insane tranny carpetbagger whom they've never heard of before.

 

[AnOminous]

1%. Usually I'd say higher just because a conservative Democrat is going to attract protest votes against him, but anyone who even cares enough about this primary knows John is a pathetic joke. I'd say Republicans might cross over to cast malicious votes for John, but registered Republicans can't do that in Massachusetts. Also it's so obviously a joke candidacy it wouldn't be worth the bother.