So I was reading about Fourth Turning theory - It describes a theorized recurring four-part generation cycle in American history and global history.

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapincal
kiwifarms.net
So what does Kiwi Farms think will happen in the 2000-2100 year time frame?

The Theory goes that there is a Spring-Summer-Fall-Winter cycle occurring based on a sort of generational hand-off. Each generational persona unleashes a new era (called a turning) lasting around 20-25 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate (mood) exists. They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" (a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 100 years, although some saecula have lasted longer). The theory states that after every saeculum, a crisis recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery (high). During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism, which ultimately creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.

The First (Spring) Turning is a High, which occurs after a Crisis. During The High, institutions are strong and individualism is weak. Society is confident about where it wants to go collectively, though those outside the majoritarian center often feel stifled by the conformity.

The Second (Summer) Turning is an Awakening. This is an era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of "self-awareness", "spirituality" and "personal authenticity". Young activists look back at the previous High as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty.

The Third (Fall) Turning is an Unraveling. The mood of this era they say is in many ways the opposite of a High: Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing. Society wants to coalesce and build and avoid the death and destruction of the previous crisis.

The Fourth (Winter) Turning is a Crisis. This is an era of destruction, often involving war or revolution, in which institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival. After the crisis, civic authority revives, cultural expression redirects towards community purpose, and people begin to locate themselves as members of a larger group.

The authors think this is the correct model to use to predict how 2030 will look:
1483-1512 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1512-1542 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1542-1566 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1566-1587 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1587-1618 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1618-1648 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1648-1674 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1674-1700 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1700-1724 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1724-1742 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1742-1767 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1767-1791 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1791-1822 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1822-1843 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1843-1850 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1850-1859 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1859-1883 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1883-1901 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1901-1925 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1925-1942 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1942-1961 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1961-1982 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1982-2005 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
2005-2029 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

2029-2053 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
...​
They predict a climatic and conclusive battle which will be over by 2030 which will see a moral majority defeat their foe and form strong American institutions and identity leading into the 2030s.

However I see a flaw in their thinking around the American Civil War where they think institutions are strong during the 1860s until 1883 and that the crisis was in the 1850s making a few of their eras seven or nine years long. Which if you adjust for what I see as a mistake you get this:
1489-1512 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1512-1542 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1542-1566 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1587-1587 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1587-1618 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1618-1648 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1648-1674 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1674-1700 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1700-1724 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1724-1742 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1742-1767 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1767-1791 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1791-1822 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1822-1843 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1843-1861 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1861-1891 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1891-1925 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
1925-1945 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
1945-1962 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
1962-1981 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

1981-2012 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
2012-2038 - Summer - (institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy)
2038-2066 - Fall - (Institutions are weak and distrusted, while individualism is strong and flourishing)
2066-2093 - Winter - (institutional life is destroyed and rebuilt in response to a perceived threat to the nation's survival)

2093-2123 - Spring - (institutions are strong and individualism is weak)
...​
I predict an era of inconclusive warring between a Social Justice/Trad era when institutions are attacked in the name of personal and spiritual autonomy. The authors themselves describe the Summer generation as Nomads (Reactive) generations who grow up as under-protected children during this time of social ideals and spiritual agendas, when young adults, who grew up as the increasingly indulged children of a post-Crisis time, are passionately attacking and destroying the established institutional order. Just when society is reaching its high tide of public progress, people suddenly tire of social discipline and want to recapture a sense of "self-awareness", "spirituality" and "personal authenticity". Young activists abound who look back at the Spring years of 1981-2012 as an era of cultural and spiritual poverty.

I think this fits much better but means that the era we are entering will be one of inconclusive battles and institutional decay without relief. The higher meaning will only come much later with conflict in the 2060s at the earliest.

TLDR; I read about a model of the next hundred years and wonder if Kiwi Farms thinks the Left and Right in America will fight decisively or indecisively and whether the problems in society today will disappear within 10 years or not until much much later? How do you see the decades unfolding until 2100? Are there Whites, Oil, Space Travel, or America by the end?
 

Haim Arlosoroff

Archpolitician June Lapincal
kiwifarms.net
What are your thoughts on carbonation?
I think Henry's law by and large is correct?

Do you mean carbon-14 dating? I think we rely on nearby samples not necessarily of the same age at all, particularly in North America where nomads occupied regions over-and-over and a nice spot might have ash ± 2000 years from the arrowhead next to it.

I think before 2500 BC Egypt, 1200-1150 BC in Southern Europe/Middle East, 1046 BC in China, 500 AD in Northern Europe, and 1650 AD in North America we know far less than we should about history. Göbekli Tepe, made and used from around 10,000 BC to 7000 BC is just bizarre. We know nothing about such a people nor what humanity was like from that period. Humanity pretty much had a modern brain since 150,000–75,000 BC but the Neanderthals became extinct around 35,000 BC. So for 40,000 years humanity co-existed with another species and then for 37,000 years existed alone until the modern day. Weird to think about.
 

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