World South African general elections, 8 May 2019 -

millais

The Yellow Rose of Victoria, Texas
kiwifarms.net

In one week, South African general elections to will be taking place to determine who gets what seats in their National Assembly, who gets the presidency, and who controls the local/regional legislatures and municipal/provincial government. This is going to be a pretty important one, since the entire South African electric grid is projected to fail within a matter of years, and the past two decades of ANC corruption and theft has brought much of the economic, governmental, and physical infrastructure very close to a point of catastrophic failure. Whatever government gets elected to power will have to shoulder the burden of sorting out this mess, or else take the blame when the electric grid completely breaks down and the country collapses into the kind of civil unrest, rioting, and violence that will make Venezuela look civilized.

So right now, it's not looking so perfect for the two biggest parties according to last minute national polling.
ANC standing at 56.9% in the latest poll, down from 62.2% in the last national election (2014)
DA at 15% in the latest poll, down from 22% in the last election
EFF at 9.5%, up from 6.4% in the last election

ANC doesn't really care where the country goes, so long as their party leadership can continue to get fat and wealthy from gross corruption and theft of state funds and institutions. They don't have any strong commitment or incentive to actually fix the country's problems since they all have their money safely tucked away in offshore accounts and overseas homes/investments, they just coasting on 20 yr old name recognition from the time of Nelson Mandela

DA is only marginally better, they also won't protest the status quo because they can't shake the boat too much for fear of losing the white liberal voting bloc and their black voters, but that's just as bad because at this point the situation does require substantial change to fix anything meaningful, and DA is too establishment to effect that kind of change. Also they have vapid Youtuber Renaldo "Hose" Gouws standing for MP in the Cape, so don't vote for DA unless you want the white South African equivalent of Sargon to be in any position of power (also he has the dress and mannerisms of Keemstar and vapes, so yeah, just don't)

EFF is just the ANC without the polite facade of at least trying to deny their aim of stealing state resources and benefiting from corruption. Although they claim land expropriation without compensation is their priority, they just intend to seize land to enrich their party leadership; none of the black masses will ever see a cent of that stolen property, and some of the more educated ones are waking up to it, since every day they see the EFF leadership going around in expensive cars and designer clothes while the party base is poor as ever.

Although ANC will probably be able to cobble together a governing majority according to the 56.9% polling data, there is still a pretty good outlook for the small parties that could actually bring positive reform to the country if they can just get enough seats in the parliament to become a part of a ruling coalition. Apparently a large demographic of black youths are disaffected with ANC and defecting to EFF or smaller radical parties like BLF, and safe to say, without Zuma at ANC's helm, the ANC isn't going to get much of the Zulu vote.

In terms of regional government, ANC is looking very poor in KZN due to the Zulu defection, so IFP will probably take KZN and make Based Zulus meme a reality.

EFF is making a lot of inroads in the densely populated provinces of the Rand, so that also will eat away at ANC's ability to contest DA's control of the urban centers like Johannesburg.

In the Cape, hopefully DA stranglehold rule can be shaken up by the new Cape Party, which seeks Cape independence in order to keep the rest of South Africa from taking down the most substantially developed and adequately maintained portion of the country in the inevitable collapse. It will definitely be an uphill battle though, because many dumb boomers think that voting Cape Party will split the vote and help ANC, even though South Africa has proportional representation and not a first-past-the-post system. Also Cape Party might be able to get some support from Cape Coloured population, and best of all they have a strong meme game. They came from being a literal joke party into having a real chance to get some seats in the Cape legislatures.

The other small parties won't be able to make much of an impact on the regional governments, but at least they might be able to swing the balance in the National Assembly. I'm talking about parties like Freedom Front Plus and National Front. The latter explicitly endorses the establishment of the Afrikaner ethnostate, and the former is doing a lot of good work to try to address the problem of farm murders and ethnic cleansing.

Apparently some boomers are shilling hard for ZACP, the Ancap party, but they don't have any practical plan for influencing government and beware that if they get 60k votes (enough for two seats), they will also get a pozzed social media personality into parliament, namely Roman Cabanac. Also their party logo is a purple cow, so it's got some literal Golden Calf, Moloch undertones going on.


Accelerationists should be pleased that BLF, the most virulently racist pro-black, pro-land seizure party, has passed the electoral litigation trial over their ban on non-black membership and will be appearing on the paper ballot unless the Freedom Front Plus's appeal goes through in the next week. If these guys get a hand in a ruling coalition, the country can have civil war inside a week and everybody can get their own ethnostate within a few months instead of dragging out the inevitable collapse over many years.
 

millais

The Yellow Rose of Victoria, Texas
kiwifarms.net
South Africa implosion when?
When the power goes out. They only have one power company in all of South Africa, the state run Eskom corporation, and the physical grid infrastructure is on the brink of total collapse after decades of maintenance and upkeep funds being stolen by the ANC corruption and theft. They are already at the point where the entire country is under a schedule of rolling blackouts (they call it "load shedding" over there). When the power goes out for good, there will be serious civil strife and unrest because the ability of the authorities and private security to maintain order is dependent on electricity, and the ability to transport and provide food to the densely populated urban centers is dependent on electricity.

So all three major parties are objectively terrible in every way, and there is no way to get past the corruption and make a fourth party.

By 2025, if not sooner.
They have a parliamentary style proportional representation system, so if the good small parties can become a part of the ruling coalition, they don't need to be bigger than the biggest parties. The problem will be breaking the ANC majority. Hopefully EFF will steal enough votes from ANC to bring them under 50%.
 

millais

The Yellow Rose of Victoria, Texas
kiwifarms.net
Most of the "coloured" South Africans want Apartheid white rule back because they are not black enough for the ANC government to give a shit about them.
They're not Bantu enough for the Xhosa-speaking ANC blacks. The Xhosas are also jealous that the Cape Coloureds have substantial Khoisan ancestry and can thus indisputably lay claim to descent from the "first nation" of South Africa. Doesn't help that ANC is also systematically attempting to dismantle Afrikaans language infrastructure and institutions, upon which many Cape Coloureds are reliant.

Too bad they mostly vote in lockstep behind DA. But I see in some of Cape Party's campaign videos, they have some Cape Coloureds supporting them, not just whites.
 

pwnest injun

An Honest Man is Always in Trouble
kiwifarms.net
Is it mostly the case that the stink of slight success has attracted constant flows of people from surrounding African nations to SA, or are these people just eating their seed corn unbidden?
 

millais

The Yellow Rose of Victoria, Texas
kiwifarms.net
Is it mostly the case that the stink of slight success has attracted constant flows of people from surrounding African nations to SA, or are these people just eating their seed corn unbidden?
I think the illegal immigration problem is not inconsequential (3-5% of the South African population consists of Subsaharan migrants, mainly from Zim, Moz, Swazi, etc), but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the failing infrastructure and broken governmental institutions and establishment. Even though all the major parties are now running on a nativist/populist platform of anti-immigrat deportations and closed borders, which is better than open borders I guess, it won't address the fundamental problems. If all the illegal immigrants were deported tomorrow, that doesn't fix the power grid from failing or make reduce the corruption and ineptitude of the government.

Most of their country's problems seem to result from a combination of the ANC systematically dismantling 350 years of economic/infrastructural development in order to sell off the bits and pieces to the Indian Guptas/Communist China for their own personal gain and the ANC replacing all the qualified white technical experts and administrators in police, energy sector, state banks, etc with unqualified and corrupt affirmative-action hires and thus losing an entire generation of the skill/knowledge base required to run a developed country. The ANC's shortsighted lust for personal enrichment and their blind hatred of non-Xhosa, non-Bantu ethnicities has brought ruin to the country. The best thing that could happen now is balkanization so everyone gets their own ethnostate and no one has anyone but themselves to blame if they fail.
 

Draza

Уклони Ћу их
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I think the illegal immigration problem is not inconsequential (3-5% of the South African population consists of Subsaharan migrants, mainly from Zim, Moz, Swazi, etc), but it's still a drop in the bucket compared to the failing infrastructure and broken governmental institutions and establishment. Even though all the major parties are now running on a nativist/populist platform of anti-immigrat deportations and closed borders, which is better than open borders I guess, it won't address the fundamental problems. If all the illegal immigrants were deported tomorrow, that doesn't fix the power grid from failing or make reduce the corruption and ineptitude of the government.

Most of their country's problems seem to result from a combination of the ANC systematically dismantling 350 years of economic/infrastructural development in order to sell off the bits and pieces to the Indian Guptas/Communist China for their own personal gain and the ANC replacing all the qualified white technical experts and administrators in police, energy sector, state banks, etc with unqualified and corrupt affirmative-action hires and thus losing an entire generation of the skill/knowledge base required to run a developed country. The ANC's shortsighted lust for personal enrichment and their blind hatred of non-Xhosa, non-Bantu ethnicities has brought ruin to the country. The best thing that could happen now is balkanization so everyone gets their own ethnostate and no one has anyone but themselves to blame if they fail.
Balkanization wil result in eventually blood war. But it's looking like it will be inevitable with the direction the country is heading.
 
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millais

The Yellow Rose of Victoria, Texas
kiwifarms.net
Balkanization wil result in eventually blood war. But it's looking like it will be inevitable with the direction the country is heading.
If Cape Party can win enough seats to control the Cape legislatures, they could hold a referendum and potentially separate peacefully. The Northern and Western Cape provinces are net contributors to the national budget, effectively subsidizing the poorer provinces of the East and North, so they could probably stand alone economically. If Cape Party can make Cape independence a reality, that would provide a bloodless model for South African balkanization, but it is admittedly a longshot.

Once the Cape breaks free, it would be a no brainer for the pro-IFP Zulus to push for the independence of KZN, and maybe then the Afrikaners could get their Volkstaat somewhere.
 

Marissa Moira

kiwifarms.net
So you're telling me that a surefire way to destabilize a whole country is to just take some cable cutters and cut a few poorly maintained power lines and we'll have everything going to shit within minutes?

That beats making russian funded ads on facebook.
 
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millais

The Yellow Rose of Victoria, Texas
kiwifarms.net
So you're telling me that a surefire way to destabilize a whole country is to just take some cable cutters and cut a few poorly maintained power lines and we'll have everything going to shit within minutes?

That beats making russian funded ads on facebook.
It's a very unique situation. South Africa is not a typical third world rural shithole where there's no country-wide electrical grid and people are accustomed to making do with a diesel generator or solar kit. Until the early/mid 2000s, electricity was taken for granted as a universally reliable constant in South Africa, and especially since the explosion of the black urban population after 1994, they've become heavily reliant on it as a basic resource. Especially in the urban areas, they are totally reliant a semi First World infrastructure built on the back of this highly decrepit electrical grid: everything from street lighting, telecoms, electronic banking, electronic security gates, hospitals, trains, air traffic control. Once the emergency backup generators go down, it will be a bad time for all as the food distribution breaks down and the starving urban poor start to riot and loot, working their way from the cities to the towns, and into the countryside until the country is eaten bare.
 

Bum Driller

Cultural Appropriator & Cowboy Chemist
kiwifarms.net
If Cape Party can win enough seats to control the Cape legislatures, they could hold a referendum and potentially separate peacefully. The Northern and Western Cape provinces are net contributors to the national budget, effectively subsidizing the poorer provinces of the East and North, so they could probably stand alone economically. If Cape Party can make Cape independence a reality, that would provide a bloodless model for South African balkanization, but it is admittedly a longshot.

Once the Cape breaks free, it would be a no brainer for the pro-IFP Zulus to push for the independence of KZN, and maybe then the Afrikaners could get their Volkstaat somewhere.
I'm by no means expert on South African matters, but generally speaking all talk of bloodless balkanization in the form of areas breaking away from larger state structure is wishful thinking. In reality, nowhere in the world can some region just claim independence without army to back them up, and expect to not get invaded by the country they just seceded from. In one thing Mao was right, and that is that all power derives from the barrel of the gun. Unless Cape Party has significant military strength to bring to the table, they don't stand a change of separating from the South Africa proper.
 
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