I’ve been cruising the supermarkets to see what they’re sold out of and the two things I’ve seen that have been cleaned out are hand sanitizer and anti-bacterial soap. So I’m thinking invest in companies like Proctor and Gamble, who not only makes sanitizer but also makes shit paper, which is another good thing to hoard.Would it be worth to try and jump onto some bits and pieces in the wake of Corona-chan? Any general advice?
Regardless of the answer to that, what's the next recommended thing to buy from aside from Robinhood? Not liking the sound of those outages mentioned a bit ago.
ETA: also, could we keep the red as a theme option? I'm starting to grow fond of it.
Not China's fault you confused your short-term gains with a sustainable economy. China's largely responsible for your ridiculous growth, maybe it's time to give some of it back to the void.Oh boy, China and the Economy.
There's a YouTube channel callee ADVChina, it's a couple Western English teachers who ride around China on motorcycles. They've been making videos for about 10 years. More importantly, they are both married to doctors. Good source of information about what's really going on.
China is not straight up lying about deaths from Covid-19, they have different reporting standards than the West. If you die in a hospital from Covid-19 and you have a pre-existing condition, the dx is for the pre-existing condition. With the way their healthcare system works, about 70% of people have a pre-existing condition. They have people dying right now from joint pain. On top of that, doctors right now have a quota for how many Covid-19 deaths they are allowed to report. It's 500 total, beyond that they have to report a different cause of death.
You can't really draw conclusions about the total number of death except to say it's very bad. The information we are getting out of Italy is more representative of what's about to happen in the US. We don't have a good way to track what's happening, but the people who get it multiplies daily. They went from 100 cases to a few thousand in six days and the number is continuing to increase at that rate. Their hospitals were at 200% capacity yesterday. A typical case requires hospitalization for about a week before someone can be discharged.
You can see the issue - overutilization of health care resources leads to people dying in the streets. One of the other things that's happening in Italy, which should scare the shit out of anyone in the West, is seniors are not being treated. Not at all, not even looked at in emergency rooms. The Italians are triaging patients and giving medical care to the people with the best chances, which makes sense if you are optimizing the system around outcomes. Even with the best medical care, a lot of seniors are going to die.
The problem for the US is healthcare spending. Just under 18% of our GDP is spent on healthcare, and more than half of that goes towards treatments for the last 6 months of life - bypasses, chemo, joint replacements, that sort of thing. There's something called the Platinum Patient, it's about 5% of the population and they get more than half the resources. Which makes sense if the system is optimized around necessity. The other thing to realize is senior have a lot of assets. Economists have been talking about the Great Wealth Transfer for decades, baby boomers have about $17T in assets that will be transferred upon their death.
This disease affects seniors more profoundly than other demographic groups. What happens in the US if we suddenly lose large senior populations? Think about it, 18% of the US GDP is tied up in senior care, that's several Trillion we stand to lose from the economy if they should pass. Seniors die differently than other populations, they lose a close friend and lose their sense of purpose. The secondary effects of a large population decrease would include another wave in about 6 months. The money that would have been spent on end-of-life treatments does not get spent another way. Estates take time to clear, assets aren't liquid, there's a lot of 5 - 10 year things that need to happen before a recovery can begin.
10 year bonds have been under 2% for a while, now they are under 1%. Some of the reason for this is uncertainty, but a big reason is markets know seniors are about to get their ass kicked. If the US follows Italy's model, the economy will receed by 3 - 10% just based on healthcare spending. That's not something we bounce back from right away.
And this is all because China sat on a pandemic for several months. Lies from the CCP have damaged the US economy in ways Mao could never have dreamed of. We're just waiting for the losses to fully realize, then maybe we will get serious about dealing with these shits. I'm personally interested in total divestment and declaring IP theft to be an act of war. More people will come to see things this way when they lose grandma and grandpa because there aren't enough respirators in the world to deal with the crush that's about to hit our healthcare system.
Pick up some guides on options trading. Puts are a nice little way to bet on the direction of a stock without the theoretically infinite losses of actually shorting it.I'm too busy browsing KF to do anything but index stocks but boy I wish I had the acumen to know how to properly short the market. The rest of the west is going the way of Italy and the next couple of months are going to be devastating when people realize that this isn't a "ACKCHYUALLY the flu kills more people" scenario.
As it is I'll get out if there's a bounce in the next week or two and get back in when things are more dire. Otherwise I'll just sit around and try not to look at it.
haha I actually had it downloaded but then shit got in the way. I'll take a look at it again.Pick up some guides on options trading. Puts are a nice little way to bet on the direction of a stock without the theoretically infinite losses of actually shorting it.
If you're really lazy, just download Robinhood, search for ticker SPY and click on "buy options " they have a nice shiny button on the screen with a down arrow that says "I think it's going down" and you can click on that and watch your money disappear. They even have instant transfers so you can watch your money disappear more faster.
If you're worried that options are risky and you might panic sell at a loss, Robinhood has that covered too! They've recently added a feature where they prevent everyone on the app from selling when the market makes big moves to keep the users safe.