Stock Market, Business, and Investing General - News, Tips, etc

thejackal

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
How high do you think SE can go? I got out because it's looking parabolic, but it's also the only thing that's made me any money recently.

I think it's way overbought. I'd hold but diversify. There will be profit taking at some point and if SPY stays flat or negative I'd expect it to occur this week, if tech gets rotated into it might get propped up and stay flat or slightly higher temporarily.

I'd say there's as good a chance it falls back to 105 this week as hits 110. If you look at the intra-day chart on SE I personally think you can see how the algos knock it around and then lift it back up. Buying some weekly calls on SE during an intra-day low seems like free money. But we all know that is the pattern until it's not.

This is the most interesting week on the markets since the crash IMO. We basically stayed flat last week despite a ton of news that suggests re-opening is going to be harder than assumed. As I type futures are basically flat, or have slightly made up the huge AH selloff from Friday. I think we open green tmr and that will be a great time to buy some puts on sale. Open up +.75% or so and then fade to red by the end of the day. Similar to Friday. Only question is when is the next 3% drop coming. I'd hazard a guess it comes before the next +2% day.

And FWIW I currently am 100% cash. Going to wait this week out most likely and wade in after the start of July.
 

TheBlueRogue

kiwifarms.net
Been lurking here a bit and I'm on the SE bandwagon now. $1800 initial investment tomorrow. I really wanted to see if it fell back to $92, because every indicator I've seen says this is overbought. But, it's just not slowing down. I'll hold $1200 in SPY just in case I'm blessed and it does fall back that far.
 
1592881664643.png

At like 8:15 some Navarro sais “gyna deal is fuk” on some tv show

And then whitehouse is like “no is fuk”

Between 1 trillion disappears and reappears

🤡
 
Might as well hold it now, but the airline pump will come back I suspect.

I have a couple of shitstocks that I either have GTC sell orders on, or I sell covered calls hoping they'll go away. GME I'm looking at you.
 
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thejackal

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
SE pullback today, finally. Might be a short opportunity but the asks on puts are absurd right now. Calls aren't much better.

How'd everybody do today in only what, our 2nd real red day in the last few weeks? I closed out a couple SPY puts that hit the jackpot that's about it. Literally my only other position is holding GAN shares. I timed going cash well, thankfully. Prolly gonna stay mostly cash for now, maybe buy some calls if I can find some values.
 

Ebonic Tutor

"Beware the shitposting of demons."
kiwifarms.net
AYTU made a decent little jump over the past two days due to officially being added to the Russell 3000, I'm officially in the green again on it if it just holds around here at the very least. Think it's gonna do more though.

1593211376740.png


It's also broke out of the pennant form it was it earlier with this occurring

1593211591223.png
.
That's from since Trump mentioning "Healing Light" and people hearing about them to now.

B 1.66 A 1.69 at the current moment, I'm guessing a bit more AH action cause of the R3K stuff.
 

tenbread

kiwifarms.net
Not sure if this would be the right place to ask, but would it be smart of me to hire someone to help with my stock market investments? I have a hard time understanding a lot of this stuff, my dad invested money through this guy that handles everything for his retirement fund and it seems to be going well. Just don’t know if I should research and do it myself or hire someone.
 
it's not worth it to hire someone, I'll do a basic one for you for free right here:

put all your money in VTSMX

if you want to do more you can read up on diversification, but for reals, just call Vanguard: https://investor.vanguard.com/home

the only time hiring someone becomes useful is when you have so much money to manage that you can take advantage of someone who can do esoteric investments. and this means multiple millions ore more.

but investing is like life insurance, lots and lots of people wanna sell you it and take their cut.

a good place to read shit is https://www.bogleheads.org/
 

Shadfan666xxx000

kiwifarms.net
Not sure if this would be the right place to ask, but would it be smart of me to hire someone to help with my stock market investments? I have a hard time understanding a lot of this stuff, my dad invested money through this guy that handles everything for his retirement fund and it seems to be going well. Just don’t know if I should research and do it myself or hire someone.
That's literally what an IRA or a 401k is but with more money.
 

TerminalTryHard

Use your fucking blinker
kiwifarms.net
Anyone have any book recommendations for learning more about investing? I was thinking of getting a copy of The Intelligent Investor but was curious if anyone had any other suggestions.
 

thejackal

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Anyone have any book recommendations for learning more about investing? I was thinking of getting a copy of The Intelligent Investor but was curious if anyone had any other suggestions.

Shit's changed so much just in the last 10 years honestly that a book like that isn't even useful anymore. We're in an age of absurd PE ratios and massively inflated market caps (Tesla is now worth more than Toyota) and "value investing" these days would basically just be (as mentioned upthread by @reptile baht spaniard rid ) a vanguard Index fund. If you really believe over a long enough period that stocks only go up it's the easy, surefire, completely thoughtless way to make money.

Anyways, I bought back in a bit and have shares of GAN, AMRC, AMC and a some puts on AAL right now. AMRC is an interesting long term play even though they got hammered today. One of the few renewable energy companies that has an actual sustainable business model at the moment and isn't just hoping for some unicorn play.

I got out on SE too early, oh well, made like 30% in two months there. It's still running and I think it's got some run left in his stupid market. Probably will touch 130 or so by August. Could also retrace back to 100 IMO in a bear market. AMC is a pure value play for me just a technical chart play really. I'd bet a fairly decent sum it goes back over 6 bucks a share here in a few weeks.

AAL is just dead in the water for various reasons and the bailout news actually was sold off EOD for the most part. AAL might well be bankrupt in 5 months. Some long dated puts below 10 for the Fall might be really profitable.
 

thejackal

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Problem with @#$@#$ puts is the companies can hang on a hell of a lot longer than you expect, especially if the government keeps pulling shit out of their ass.

I think some of Bogle's books can be a good read - but again; long term investment stuff there.

Currently I'm waiting for UPS to get it's head out of its ass and deliver https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/options-as-a-strategic-investment-lawrence-g-mcmillan/1116689027 (puts on UPS)

I almost made a joke that if AAL does go bankrupt stock will triple. The amount of zombie companies that this crisis is creating is staggering. Instead of letting them fail we are bailing them out with taxpayer money and general QE measures like zero percent rates.
 

PepsiVanilla

kiwifarms.net
I got out on SE too early, oh well, made like 30% in two months there. It's still running and I think it's got some run left in his stupid market. Probably will touch 130 or so by August. Could also retrace back to 100 IMO in a bear market.

By sheer dumb luck (so far), I'm still all-in on it. How did you decide on getting out at the specific time when you did?

Also out of curiosity, how did you first learn about SE in the first place? I'm a total noob myself so just like the person you were responding to here, I'm also trying to figure out the best way to get a good foundation of knowledge and maybe some good places to get advice/updates.
 
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ShortBusDriver

kiwifarms.net
By sheer dumb luck (so far), I'm still all-in on it. How did you decide on getting out at the specific time when you did?

Also out of curiosity, how did you first learn about SE in the first place? I'm a total noob myself so just like the person you were responding to here, I'm also trying to figure out the best way to get a good foundation of knowledge and maybe some good places to get advice/updates.
If you want crazy highs and crippling loses I'd suggest the super autistic WallStreetBets.


These guys turn $15,000 into $1,200,000 then lose it all the next day. But once in a while there's some genuinely good buys.
 

thejackal

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
SPY is diverging from NASDAQ. Tread carefully on calls. The valuations of large cap tech are already absurd. If big money decides to take profit on their positions in FAANG fear will hit like a pile of bricks and there will be a sustained sell off.

Not saying that's guaranteed but it's certainly a possibility after today.

TMR is going to be a very, very interesting day.

@PepsiVanilla how about that 12% yesterday! I was researching SaaS in emerging markets. SE came up. Then I usually go to Tickeron.com and see what their AI thinks of the technicals and then I just do any DD I can. I felt SE was a really good play, turned out it was. There's luck involved but I'm glad it helped you and made you money. I pulled out because I was up like 30%.

Use rules to trade so you don't get emotional. I usually like to take profits at anything in shares above 20%. Then I just try and find new runners. You can't chase usually, although in this stupid ass bull market it works more often than it should.

For options I'm firmly in the camp that you have to diamond hands them. You can lose 9 options plays in a row but then you hit one 10x and even 5x and you make profit. Can't weak hand them when you're down early. If you're new, buy close to ITM long term expiring options (2-3 months). You'll pay a huge premium but you won't have to worry about looking at them every day and because they are closer to ITM your chances of selling at something like a 50% loss are much lower. Caps your gains a bit too but it's much safer.

And when buying options always see if you can take advantage of the bid spread (can sell a call when you buy one for example with the same strike and expiration) and NEVER hold through earnings. Never. You'll get IV crushed even if they are positive.

EDIT: what a wild fucking market. CCL to the moon! Good luck boys.

7/13 edit: 2nd leg down? BOXL is a play for Covid if schools can't open. Ran 50% today, has more room to run imo.
 
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thejackal

True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Trading is absolutely exhausting. This morning we're down about half a point around 20 minutes after open and VIX is once again rising. We then proceed to rip to up about a full point across the indexes by close. This is following a day in which the NASDAQ intra day gained 2% and then finished lower than .5% - the first such day since the dot com bust days in 2000.

We then continue to skyrocket in Futures and right now we see NASDAQ up three quarters of a point and SPY up nearly a point.

Ostensibly the market gained on a "vaccine rumor". The same incredible bull market (largest 50 day bull in history) that "shrugs off corona virus" PUMPS on a vaccine. You make sense of that.

Shit is getting bonkers. The only thing really to do is hedge and/or cash. Or just buy calls I guess.
 
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