Oil has been a good play (have been long NRGU and made quite a lot of bank), but we’ll see some fluctuations around warm weather / reopening. I’m long XOM (I figure they’ll make a profit no matter what), have a little shock absorption in NRGD, and am holding VXX for the next sector rotationYeah. Energy and gas is now 50% of my portfolio.
My guidance for 2021 and 2022 is very simple right now. A high oil price means slow recovery. Smart money will start allocating their capital to energy sector but this time cautiously and smartly. Energy companies will not be expanding their production well into 2022. Why? Because they got fucked hard between 2017-2019.
Oil will hit $80 per barrel by summer. Possibly $120 by fall. And then dip somewhere $90

EDIT
If inflation goes up, commodities will go up. If inflation doesn’t go up, SOME commodities will still go up. VTIP and other TIPS are okay, but it’s correct that CPI doesn’t accurately protect against inflation. TIPS are a leaky protection, look to rare earths, water, utilities, and oil for hedges against “what inflation makes expensive”. POWW is Ammo Inc, for example (they’re already very expensive).Thoughts? I am nervous about inflation and this video doesn’t help.
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