Taliban offensive of 2021 and potential collapse of Afghan government. -

attractive_pneumonia

kiwifarms.net
Along the Tajik border the Taliban seem to be surrounding Sheberghan, likely preparing something more akin to a siege than assault.

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However inside Sheberghan there seems to be something of a popular mobilization consisting of both men and women. I have my doubts these women will useful at all unlike the Kurds who have a gender equal military because they're communist, the Kurds have long standing military units and training regimes for women, these Afghan women are just picking up an AK-47 or other rifle in their colorful outfits that draw the eye. The fact most of these women are actually masked makes me believe this is more propaganda than actual military option.1624673105714.png1624673113737.png1624673122990.png1624673129421.png
 

Shadfan666xxx000

kiwifarms.net
One of the major "conspiracy theories" about the Afghanistan war being continued so long was it being a blocking effort to prevent Iran from making a pipeline across Afghanistan to China, American grand strategy is about keeping China boxed in, the recent Burma coup and alignment back to China opens up a new naval base and platform for operations and Afghanistan falling apart allows oil to be shipped overland via pipeline. Akin to the "no warm water" for Russia strategy the British used, the American strategy has been to keep China boxed into the South China Sea and that seems to be falling apart at a breakneck pace.
If that's why we're there then why didn't we eventually make another deal with the Taliban?Bin Laden has been dead for a decade and it turned out he wasn't even there anyway so we could have just bought them off.
 

Falcos_Commisar

kiwifarms.net
No

Seriously though... this is one of the oldest and frankly dumbest "why are we there" talking points. Usually it's presented as "Gov'mt is secretly profiting from heroin trade!", or more frequently and less coherently "Gov'mt is trafficking dope" which are both (unfounded) conspiracy theories based solely on the premise that if Iran-Contra happened, then obviously it was happening again in Afghanistan.

Alhough you changed it up a little to "Big Pharma needs that dope!", that's actually even more retarded. Big Pharma doesn't need that dope, morphia is cheap, it's easily produced, and pharma companies legally produce on their own plantations, or buy from gov'mt sanctioned plantations in other countries. They do not need Europe's entire supply of "?" grade opium from a wartorn hellhole, or the logistical and PR problems that come with that, their margin is huge and the amount they spend on raw dope is trivial. Pharma sells a lot of stuff and really most of their products don't rely on muh opium alkaloids (morphine, codeine, thebaine, papaverine, and noscapine).

Virtually the entire US domestic drug supply comes from Mexico and S. America, with a small amount from the South Asian golden triangle producers. The arab holes produce dope for Africa and Europe, along with some Asian market share. A lot of it is shitty #2 and #3. That's why I always had to roll my eyes at the original version of this theory, yeah dude sure the US gov'mt is trafficking in dope that doesn't actually exist on the street. Nobody anywhere buys wholesale dope from white people (unless they're OC, and even then that's already been exported). The source countries are all controlled by their own ethnic cartels, working with the local gov'mts.

Does dope get diverted, or has someone padded their pockets in the last 20 50 years when you go back to the arming of the mujahideen against the Soviets? Sure. There are probably dimebag players involved around the edges. Is it some huge nefarious plot? No fucking way. Frankly that shit's too high-risk and simply just chump change for the big boys. What the fuck you need a risky hundred-million profit on drugs or pharma margins for when the gov'mt will happily spend trillions on "war" including contracts, personnel, medicines, food, construction, etc. There's plenty of pork for everybody!
1000000% correct

Afghan heroin stays on Afghanistan or heads to Iran/Pakistan/India and surrounding areas. American drugs are Hencho en Mexico/Ecuador/Colombia or China.
 

FAQnews Correspondent

FAQnews: The Most Trusted Name in News
kiwifarms.net
I can assure you that the CIA has more money than it knows what to do with.
We’re in Afghanistan for MUH GREAT GAME reasons. 19th century logic.
All this geopolitical shit seems to have gotten a whole lot less interesting and a whole lot more retarded after the end of the cold war.
 

Harlay de Champvallon

Archevêque de Paris, Duc de Saint-Cloud
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan (the Soviet invasion was to overthrow Hafizullah Amin who appeared to the paranoid Soviet leadership to be going rogue from the Communist bloc, but Amin thought almost to the last moments of his life that the invaders were perhaps Americans and he was hoping the Soviet Union could help) might be a slight parallel. It actually survived the Soviet withdrawal and could have survived longer were it not for the collapse of the Soviet Union which meant it could no longer fuel its helicopters, fixed wing aircraft, tanks and APCs, plus pay bribes or tributes to local potentates. One reason too for the fall of the Republic - the explicitly Communist Democratic Republic was dropped in 1987 - is that some northern Uzbek and Tajik leaders withdrew their support and hunkered down with Gen. Dostum obstructing the efforts of the last Communist President to escape). Anyhow, the point I hope to make is that the present government will last while US money keeps flowing. Now its ruling ideology, compared to the old Communist state, a sort of watered down Islamism, isn't particularly good except for drawing in local warlords with their hands out for bribes.

The Tajik and other minorities like the Taleban little, but without US taxpayer money, the present Islamic Republic of Afghanistan would survive except as a flag of convenience for Uzbek or Tajik minority militias and others who won't accept the Taleban. One thing at least is that most of that white is lightly populated. Another result of ridin' with Biden.
 

Stoneheart

Well hung, and snow white tan
kiwifarms.net
these Afghan women are just picking up an AK-47 or other rifle in their colorful outfits that draw the eye. The fact most of these women are actually masked makes me believe this is more propaganda
Well the taliban arent a good fighting force either. also muslim woman are less retarded than muslim men(genetics keeps females closer to baseline IQ).
well motivated they cold defend their villages.
 

attractive_pneumonia

kiwifarms.net
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I rotated the motorcycle one, it was vertical and sideways. Most of the major highways between Khandahar, Kabul and Herat are plagued with Taliban highwaymen and the three cities are cut from each other. There are military actions from the Afghan Government happening but they just cannot be everywhere at once.




Apparently the Taliban captured 85 of these men who are deemed "Commandos," more likely militia and gave them a bit of cash and told them to go home after they surrendered. This leniency is going to cause more defections and surrenders once word spreads about how generous the Taliban forces are being. The deputy leader of the Taliban put out notice that "War booty" is limited to weapons and gear captured from military units only, anyone caught plundering or raping civilians would be dealt with severely: http://alemarahenglish.net/?p=47280
 
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attractive_pneumonia

kiwifarms.net
New Map showcasing recent gains and current contested areas:
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Its now impossible to travel from one city to another without passing through Taliban controlled or contested regions, they're also being cut off on the borders so each city will become cut off from everything that is not airlifted aid.
 

potato in mah painus

X reddit faggitory
kiwifarms.net
New Map showcasing recent gains and current contested areas: View attachment 2297095

Its now impossible to travel from one city to another without passing through Taliban controlled or contested regions, they're also being cut off on the borders so each city will become cut off from everything that is not airlifted aid.
without intervention this is over, government forces will be overrun by the end of next week or sooner.
 

attractive_pneumonia

kiwifarms.net
without intervention this is over, government forces will be overrun by the end of next week or sooner.
I wouldn't expect that, the government is going to be giving up vast amounts of land but this will take better part of the summer to happen, the government is going to have a lot of hold out pockets that will probably last until next year, how long these pockets of resistance will last is unknown, we already witnessed this kind of blitz with ISIS initially then they hit a brick wall of resistance that required heavy attrition to break through. I'm waiting for the Afghan Government to figure out what regions can be saved and consolidate it into some sort of defensible perimeter, all we've seen is tepid military actions to liberate this or that district only for it to immediately fall out of control once the army unit leaves the village.
 

Piss Clam

Squeeze me.
kiwifarms.net
There is a video of a US Captatin telling the afagain police to stop abusing 10-12 year old boys.

The taliban (pakistan) will stop young girls from going to school and abuse young boys....this is what is going to happen when we leave...

 
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