Archpolitician June Lapincal
Kiwi Farms, I have long thought about the future of the West. Oswald Spengler, and Sir John Glubb were great teachers who I wish with all my heart I had met in person and learned the slightest bit more. I have long since been enamored by the models of the Wiemar Republic, the Spanish Civil War, the West and the East of the Roman Empire, and the various empires of Far East China for predicting the future of the West. And while know that the future is unwritten and that the circumstances are different, I feel a sense of foreboding. The arrogance of our times might just be folly. However the future comes to be written, I would argue against a total denial of these older insights, for the greater truth is that Humanity never changes. Humanity always turns amble food stocks into population booms into imperial wealth and splendor. We imagine the innumerable empires of world history from far distant history, through Shepherd-Neolithic & Egyptian pyramid, the greatnesses of Greek and Carthaginian and Roman armies, to modern American and Chinese infighting are something of a unique cultural insight or technology forwarding each of their tribes into greatness. The empty jousting today between a bloviating Trump and a verbally impaired Joe Biden is not the standard of our civilization's oligarchs always winning. The people always losing. Surely it matters to World History who sits in the White House. America with its economic strength cannot become a failed state.
There are many actors to blame who could be said to kill America’s open society. We imagine elsewhere that the uniquenesses of English, French, or German transcend the standard of Humanity and write their own fates accordingly. The opposite is true. Humanity never changes, genetically that is of course never strictly exactly true. Yet in modern America as before, there are those who posture as the moral arbiters of society while abandoning every value they purportedly hold the moment they become inconvenient. Humanity never changes. Marginalized journalists, including Glenn Greenwald and Matt Taibbi, who called out Biden and the Democrats are ignored or discredited where they could hurt the Democratic Party, including the pre-election revelations on Hunter Biden’s laptop. Among the greater American elite and middle classes, It was a stunning display of the new standards of craven careerism and self-loathing. There is no check sudden left on corporate power. The inevitable social unrest will see the state, no matter who is in the White House, use its three principle instruments of social control — wholesale surveillance, the prisons and militarized police — buttressed by a legal system that routinely revokes habeas corpus and due process, to ruthlessly crush dissent. People of color, immigrants and Muslims will be blamed and targeted by our native fascists for the nation’s decline.
The few who continue in defiance of the Democratic Party to call out the crimes of the corporate state and the empire will be silenced. Yet ultimately is this any new thing? Did the Roman's ever lack a wise consul because the office was bought and traded? Did Carthage not grow complainant of rising Rome and the outdated logic of mercenaries in an age of national fervor? The breeding forces within each civilization new and old created by their host civilization force certain winners and losers depend upon a trend continuing either towards a new or increasing true paradigm in nature regardless of the host civilization surviving the transition, or else all the populations of America, Egypt, China, or Rome first rise and then due to their breeding pressures became something unsustainable and ultimately fell time and again as part and parcel of a larger more true paradigm that humanity never truly changes. Intellect is only ever valued among the virtuous and the brave, if it replaces virtue or courage then the whole cultural/civilizational thing collapses. Infertility likewise follows the hyper-rational in World History, if it were otherwise I would support the temporary foolish hatreds toward religiousness and nationalism that fester for but a short time in each civilization. However ample food makes first superior populations and great politics and military ways, then the empire is formed and the people lose their sense of virility and fertility shortly thereafter in the madnesses of tolerance and apathy
Instead I would offer a different older model to explain our times. The Bronze Age Collapse. The similarities are obvious to those who know of them, the trade, the technological changes, the collapse of their environment, and the migration of the ne'er-do-wells from abroad once the nation began to show weakness to the world. Fifth-generation warfare (5GW) is the battle of perceptions and information and it is upon us. The environment likewise has turned against the Western obsession to growth and industry. However large the opposition to the West's immigration folly becomes, the genetic and cultural legacy of the west is doomed by those two factors alone. It is over for democracies who cannot see beyond the next few years habitually. The infertile populations will find themselves surrounded by those who claim a common cause but who deeply in truth hate them.
However, this is not the worst part. The bronze age collapse occurred apart from demographic horrors due to a change in one variable: Tin. The energy industry of the time was limited to wood and manpower, however Bronze requires Tin in order to turn copper to bronze chemically. Today the opposite is mostly true, while china controls many Rare Earth Minerals the real bottleneck to growth or sustainable economic function is Energy. Oil, Nuclear, or 'Sustainable Energy' is coming to a close in the West. Many people think the power of the west is its wealth, but underlying all that wealth is the reality of its cheap energy. What is more real afterall, finances or energy? I think we all know, whatever our personal commitments, that the real thing is the oil in the ground not the current value of this or that stock. America is sustained by petrol dollars, and without them the economy will shrink permanently. The truth of this is seen in the Federal Government's willingness to adopt the Golden Gimmick. As the world's dominant reserve currency, the United States dollar has been a major currency for trading oil, however in August 2018 Venezuela joined the increasingly large group of countries that finally allowed their oil to be purchased in currencies other than US Dollars, thus allowing purchases in Euros, Yuan and other directly convertible currencies. There isn't a stock in the stock market that does not assume a continuance of both the value of the US Dollar and the cheap exchange of oil by it. If that changes then immediately every stock on the stock market is overvalued. This market correction will be worse than the great depression, or indeed the 2008 recent recession, because it is imposed by nature like the Tin of the Bronze Age Collapse.
The result of this force upon our civilization will be one for the history books. I say it will also be the end of liberalism, the end of Social Justice to be sure, but the end of Classical Liberalism and Democracy too. By the year 2100 the forces of nature by climate change or oil shortage (or cost to extract if you prefer) will doom the west to a collapse equivalent to the Bronze Age's. At least as far as the Greek saw massive revolts to the established order, the Hittites saw mass invasions and extractions, and the Egyptians saw a demographic replacement and downward spiral into a fragment of its former self then America will see revolution in the 2060s, mass invasion by the third world, and destitution compared to a century before.