The Great Reset - lol we're all screwed

will you submit yourself to this new world order


  • Total voters
    189

Godbert Manderville

kiwifarms.net
Some form of mind-boggling change is coming, whether we like it or not. Technology and covid are just expediting the process. We are an aging species and falling in numbers in the developed world - given a stay of economic execution only by immigration that we are now attempting to resist. Those nations that aren't demographically there yet will get there soon enough, 50 to 100 years is nothing in the lifetime of this species. There will be fewer young taxpayers to support the old and infirm. The burden of repaying existing government debt will fall on their ever smaller shoulders; the days of natural population growth driven debt-reducing inflation likely over. And entire sectors of work will be hollowed out by automation. In ten to twenty years time, will there even be such a thing as a driving job? A checkout job? An accounting job? Will we even require a doctor? We. Are. Fucked.

I can only think of one thing that might save us now: aging reversal technology. Everyone becomes younger again, productive again, and we move away from that economic cliff-edge. The only other solution? Women start having three or four children each, and in the developed world they have the choice and tools not to so why would they? They can satisfy the desire for motherhood with just the one, and give the child more of themselves that way too.
 

Maurice Caine

You talkin' to me?
kiwifarms.net
Some form of mind-boggling change is coming, whether we like it or not. Technology and covid are just expediting the process. We are an aging species and falling in numbers in the developed world - given a stay of economic execution only by immigration that we are now attempting to resist. Those nations that aren't demographically there yet will get there soon enough, 50 to 100 years is nothing in the lifetime of this species. There will be fewer young taxpayers to support the old and infirm. The burden of repaying existing government debt will fall on their ever smaller shoulders; the days of natural population growth driven debt-reducing inflation likely over. And entire sectors of work will be hollowed out by automation. In ten to twenty years time, will there even be such a thing as a driving job? A checkout job? An accounting job? Will we even require a doctor? We. Are. Fucked.

I can only think of one thing that might save us now: aging reversal technology. Everyone becomes younger again, productive again, and we move away from that economic cliff-edge. The only other solution? Women start having three or four children each, and in the developed world they have the choice and tools not to so why would they? They can satisfy the desire for motherhood with just the one, and give the child more of themselves that way too.
Do you think age-reversing is feasible, though? Sounds like a fever dream to me.
 

The Wicked Mitch

Senate Minority Cuckold
kiwifarms.net
Some form of mind-boggling change is coming, whether we like it or not. Technology and covid are just expediting the process. We are an aging species and falling in numbers in the developed world - given a stay of economic execution only by immigration that we are now attempting to resist. Those nations that aren't demographically there yet will get there soon enough, 50 to 100 years is nothing in the lifetime of this species. There will be fewer young taxpayers to support the old and infirm. The burden of repaying existing government debt will fall on their ever smaller shoulders; the days of natural population growth driven debt-reducing inflation likely over. And entire sectors of work will be hollowed out by automation. In ten to twenty years time, will there even be such a thing as a driving job? A checkout job? An accounting job? Will we even require a doctor? We. Are. Fucked.

I can only think of one thing that might save us now: aging reversal technology. Everyone becomes younger again, productive again, and we move away from that economic cliff-edge. The only other solution? Women start having three or four children each, and in the developed world they have the choice and tools not to so why would they? They can satisfy the desire for motherhood with just the one, and give the child more of themselves that way too.

None of the subhumans the West has been importing provide an economic boon.

Whatever other factors are at play im sure the prospect of bringing more children into an ever niggified world aren't doing us any favors.
 

ToroidalBoat

Token Hispanic Friend
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I think it'd be more surprising if there weren't corrupt jerks in positions of power who'd want to reshape the world into (more of) a dystopian hell so they could have more power over it.
 

Godbert Manderville

kiwifarms.net
Do you think age-reversing is feasible, though? Sounds like a fever dream to me.

Ten or twenty years ago, I'd have largely agreed. Recently, however, important discoveries are coming in thick and fast to the extent that I'm confident enough to say aging reversal will happen (even if I think it may take half a century or so to get here)




And from earlier this year, analysis of a very interesting finding indeed :

 

tehpope

My Face Everyday | Archivist
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Some form of mind-boggling change is coming, whether we like it or not. Technology and covid are just expediting the process. We are an aging species and falling in numbers in the developed world - given a stay of economic execution only by immigration that we are now attempting to resist. Those nations that aren't demographically there yet will get there soon enough, 50 to 100 years is nothing in the lifetime of this species. There will be fewer young taxpayers to support the old and infirm. The burden of repaying existing government debt will fall on their ever smaller shoulders; the days of natural population growth driven debt-reducing inflation likely over. And entire sectors of work will be hollowed out by automation. In ten to twenty years time, will there even be such a thing as a driving job? A checkout job? An accounting job? Will we even require a doctor? We. Are. Fucked.

I can only think of one thing that might save us now: aging reversal technology. Everyone becomes younger again, productive again, and we move away from that economic cliff-edge. The only other solution? Women start having three or four children each, and in the developed world they have the choice and tools not to so why would they? They can satisfy the desire for motherhood with just the one, and give the child more of themselves that way too.
10 to 20 years for automation to take over every low skilled job? Try 100 to 200. At the earliest. Automation is only as good as the programmers who develope it. And even then, new jobs will emerge to meet the demands automation brings.
 

Godbert Manderville

kiwifarms.net
10 to 20 years for automation to take over every low skilled job? Try 100 to 200. At the earliest. Automation is only as good as the programmers who develope it. And even then, new jobs will emerge to meet the demands automation brings.

One does not need to automate everything to cause massive problems for society. 10 to 20 years is a reasonable assumption on self driving vehicles becoming mainstream. In 10 to 20 years, the millions upon millions of relatively low skilled people who now support themselves through driving people or goods will be 10 to 20 years older and harder to retrain. The supermarkets, retail, and warehousing industries won't have need of them - already self checkout systems are ubiquitous and robots are beginning to retrieve, package, and dispatch goods all on their own. Factories are relying ever less on labour and ever more on robots. It's okay to say new jobs will be created - they will be - but will they be created in the numbers needed to offset technological unemployment and will they be suitable for the relatively low skilled? On both those counts I and many others are doubtful. Let us also not be shy of stating the truth - a good portion of people are incapable of anything else. Once the pool of those jobs reduces the low skilled fall out of the workforce, and perhaps into idleness and criminality.

After covid, governments are drowning in debt. Due to aging, the amount they will be spending on pensions, adult social care, and health is naturally set to increase leaving less for education and retraining. And there are relatively fewer kids overall to pick up the economic costs. People are not nearly as worried about the twin dangers of aging and automation as they ought to be.
 

cybertoaster

Chairman of the mammary regulation committee
kiwifarms.net
Got tons of colleagues working in AI, stuff like autonomous cars are still not there yet, the estimations are really optimistic since they cant still solve basic things like reliably reading traffic lights and not sperging out due to minor stuff like painting colors and patterns on the streets or other cars. I'm not joking, these cars will literally drive themselves into a truck for no apparent reason.

Same thing with delivery drones, I seen videos of these drones just flipping out because of a small blip in the GPS triggering a bug into the flight plan and flying straight into the ground, you can't just have that on a city else you get sued to hell by everybody specially the government.

The jobs that are really gonna get hit hard are office jobs, the kind that don't need a STEM degree. All those desk jockeys are gonna get rekt by software bots. While robots are expensive as hell to make and to buy the software bots are cheap, really cheap. Robots rarely work faster than humans, most of the time slower, it just happens that on the long run they are cheaper than paying wages and they dont need to rest. But soft-bots are faster, insanely really fast, no human could ever even approach the speed these bots have when doing basic stuff like data entry, spreadsheets and even more complicated stuff like looking up law databases for lawyers, stuff law firms have entire teams doing right now. Those teams take weeks to do what a bot running on a server does in half an hour.

I tell you its more likely bubba the trucker will keep driving during the next decade than karen the receptionist keep fucking up the calls, google already has phone bots so good people can't tell they aren't talking to a person.
 

Panama

kiwifarms.net
Got tons of colleagues working in AI, stuff like autonomous cars are still not there yet, the estimations are really optimistic since they cant still solve basic things like reliably reading traffic lights and not sperging out due to minor stuff like painting colors and patterns on the streets or other cars. I'm not joking, these cars will literally drive themselves into a truck for no apparent reason.

Same thing with delivery drones, I seen videos of these drones just flipping out because of a small blip in the GPS triggering a bug into the flight plan and flying straight into the ground, you can't just have that on a city else you get sued to hell by everybody specially the government.

The jobs that are really gonna get hit hard are office jobs, the kind that don't need a STEM degree. All those desk jockeys are gonna get rekt by software bots. While robots are expensive as hell to make and to buy the software bots are cheap, really cheap. Robots rarely work faster than humans, most of the time slower, it just happens that on the long run they are cheaper than paying wages and they dont need to rest. But soft-bots are faster, insanely really fast, no human could ever even approach the speed these bots have when doing basic stuff like data entry, spreadsheets and even more complicated stuff like looking up law databases for lawyers, stuff law firms have entire teams doing right now. Those teams take weeks to do what a bot running on a server does in half an hour.

I tell you its more likely bubba the trucker will keep driving during the next decade than karen the receptionist keep fucking up the calls, google already has phone bots so good people can't tell they aren't talking to a person.
Anyone who has worked in industrial settings or manufacturing can tell you that we are a very long way, if ever, from massive replacement of unskilled labor with machines. White collar workers and clerk jobs are what will actually be on the chopping block. I have seen more streamlining and automation in inventory, document database, production planning and manpower allocation in the last five years than my industry has seen in actual hands on processing in the last thirty. Techies are scared to admit it, but softbots really are the next step for automation.
 

cybertoaster

Chairman of the mammary regulation committee
kiwifarms.net
Techies are not scared, they are looking forward to selling AI-as-a-service to companies

We've had bots that can write news for years, now they are better than the average journo, specially at fact-checking

Designers and artists are next, we got AI that can compose music. Upload whatever shit is trendy right now to it and it can create a song that hits the top10. Same with art, there is an AI that can make a drawing out of a description of what you want
 

Panama

kiwifarms.net
Techies are not scared, they are looking forward to selling AI-as-a-service to companies

We've had bots that can write news for years, now they are better than the average journo, specially at fact-checking

Designers and artists are next, we got AI that can compose music. Upload whatever shit is trendy right now to it and it can create a song that hits the top10. Same with art, there is an AI that can make a drawing out of a description of what you want
Guess I misspoke by saying techies. That's a been a catchall term for various office support staff that have been quickly losing relevance in my field. It's certainly a misnomer, since they are a far cry from IT, programmers, or engineers.
 

Maurice Caine

You talkin' to me?
kiwifarms.net
Ten or twenty years ago, I'd have largely agreed. Recently, however, important discoveries are coming in thick and fast to the extent that I'm confident enough to say aging reversal will happen (even if I think it may take half a century or so to get here)




And from earlier this year, analysis of a very interesting finding indeed :

That's all what I keep hearing on r/futurology and that other one about longevity, but I recall people making similar claims at least a decade ago, man. Maybe we're gonna see this but I don't think we're gonna see this soon (or we'll be old as fuck by then who knows)
 

TurdFondler

kiwifarms.net
They had a self driving van in the late 80s that was only "10 years away" from mass market. It's like cold fusion.

The processors have gotten faster but computers are abysmally bad at driving still. We can hardly even mimic a fruit fly or dragonfly nervous system, driverless cars are smoke and mirrors. Unless of course we move to 100% driverless which would be more feasible.

Whatever process or redesign of computers and computer logic solves the car problem will solve the manufacturing issues too. Until then it'll be more of the same, but faster.
 

cybertoaster

Chairman of the mammary regulation committee
kiwifarms.net
They had a self driving van in the late 80s that was only "10 years away" from mass market. It's like cold fusion.

The processors have gotten faster but computers are abysmally bad at driving still. We can hardly even mimic a fruit fly or dragonfly nervous system, driverless cars are smoke and mirrors. Unless of course we move to 100% driverless which would be more feasible.

Whatever process or redesign of computers and computer logic solves the car problem will solve the manufacturing issues too. Until then it'll be more of the same, but faster.
Even if you goo 100% autonomous all it takes is one bug to create a pileup
 

PaleTay

kiwifarms.net
Got tons of colleagues working in AI, stuff like autonomous cars are still not there yet, the estimations are really optimistic since they cant still solve basic things like reliably reading traffic lights and not sperging out due to minor stuff like painting colors and patterns on the streets or other cars. I'm not joking, these cars will literally drive themselves into a truck for no apparent reason.

Same thing with delivery drones, I seen videos of these drones just flipping out because of a small blip in the GPS triggering a bug into the flight plan and flying straight into the ground, you can't just have that on a city else you get sued to hell by everybody specially the government.

The jobs that are really gonna get hit hard are office jobs, the kind that don't need a STEM degree. All those desk jockeys are gonna get rekt by software bots. While robots are expensive as hell to make and to buy the software bots are cheap, really cheap. Robots rarely work faster than humans, most of the time slower, it just happens that on the long run they are cheaper than paying wages and they dont need to rest. But soft-bots are faster, insanely really fast, no human could ever even approach the speed these bots have when doing basic stuff like data entry, spreadsheets and even more complicated stuff like looking up law databases for lawyers, stuff law firms have entire teams doing right now. Those teams take weeks to do what a bot running on a server does in half an hour.

I tell you its more likely bubba the trucker will keep driving during the next decade than karen the receptionist keep fucking up the calls, google already has phone bots so good people can't tell they aren't talking to a person.
So only about 95% of low skill workers are going to be replaced? That's the optimistic forecasts I always hear from people who don't believe in our new robot overlords.

I don't know what new industry people will magically invent to retrain people in, it would pretty much have to be entertainment or creativity based. There are already huge swathes of Canada/America where there's no major industry.
 

Godbert Manderville

kiwifarms.net

This is where we currently are with autonomous vehicles. The service has gone live in a small part of the world and it's pretty damn impressive already. Just imagine how much better it will be in 10 to 20 years time and be certain it will have reached everywhere important.

I do agree on the software thing replacing white collar jobs at a greater rate than blue collar jobs - the latter requiring expensive hardware - it's just that as examples machines make more impact than algorithms. But either way the point remains valid that tens of millions will be losing their jobs, and there doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that would absorb that labour. The upcoming technologies are VR, AR, and autonomous vehicles. They will all create some jobs but they certainly won't be for the low skilled. I'm white collar and not young, they're unlikely to even be for me.

What is the solution to a world in which tens of millions are made unemployed and their age and technology means they have little chance of being employed again? What is the solution to a world where ever fewer young people have to support the pensions, social care, and health needs of an ever larger number of old people? How is government debt to be repaid or inflated away with both of those things in play? Either aging reversal tech is developed in the next few decades, or the state intervenes and radically changes how things work - a Great Reset you could say - or people start burning shit down and stabbing each other.
 
Last edited:

ditto

kiwifarms.net
I tell you its more likely bubba the trucker will keep driving during the next decade than karen the receptionist keep fucking up the calls, google already has phone bots so good people can't tell they aren't talking to a person.
But do you know what does automate really well? Middle Management. Specifically, shitty middle managers that like to micromanage.

Programs that sit in the background and monitor how many emails you send, how long you're away from your desk, how much you participate in chat, "help" after hours etc. etc.

White collar jobs are going to go full wage cage in the next 10 years as this shit replaces all the boomer middle managers retire.
 

Considered HARMful

kiwifarms.net
What is the solution to a world in which tens of millions are made unemployed and their age and technology means they have little chance of being employed again? What is the solution to a world where ever fewer young people have to support the pensions, social care, and health needs of an ever larger number of old people? How is government debt to be repaid or inflated away with both of those things in play? [...]
There are actually plenty of options: cyanide, gunshot, bridges (or other tall structures) etc.

I'm not exactly sure if I'm kidding or not.
 

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