The "Hypothetical" India-Pakistan/Great South Asian War - You people know it's coming

[Iwasamwillbe]

India and Pakistan don't like each other. India and Pakistan have been agitating against each other for years. You may think both sides having nukes would deter a hot war, but due to recent geopolitical events [read: heightened Chinese geopolitical activity], I believe a hot war will come about anyway by around 2030.

1. What would be the precise cause(s) of the war?
A. What would be the buildup?
B. What would be the flashpoint that finally begins the war proper?

2. Who would ally with either party in the wake of the war? Who will remain neutral?
A. Is anyone likely to switch sides over time?

3. What would be the immediate economic effects on the South Asian, general Asian, and the world that this war would have?

4. What would be the immediate sociopolitical effects on South Asia, continental Asia, and the world that this war would have?

5. What would be the immediate cultural effects on South Asia, continental Asia, and the world that this war would have?

6. How would this war affect the South Asian geographical landscape?

7. Who would win, and how would they have achieved this victory?
A. Would this end differently from one side just beating the other, as with a peace treaty? Or is it something else entirely?

8. What would be the sociopolitical, economic, cultural, and geographical aftermath of the war in both the immediate and the long run, across South Asia, general Asia, and the entire world?

9. Will strategic/tactical usage of nuclear weaponry eventually be involved?

Bonus: if Pakistan loses, what should it be renamed? Personally, I'm partial to names like "Urdustan" or "the Punjab-Sindh".

 

[NOT Sword Fighter Super]

As long as we save all the Indian food recipes I don’t care what happens.

 

[PozzedByCoronachan]

Bonus: if Pakistan loses, what should it be renamed? Personally, I'm partial to names like "Urdustan" or "the Punjab-Sindh".

West India
Being real though I pray to God we don't get a nuclear Indopaki war so as to avoid the leviathanic effect of nearly 2 billion refugees trying to leave their radioactive homeland to head to Europe. If they go to China though I don't really care .

 

[Rekkington]

As long as we save all the Indian food recipes I don’t care what happens.

Indian food sucks and I hope they all nuke each other's gay smelly asses.

 

[NOT Sword Fighter Super]

Indian food sucks and I hope they all nuke each other's gay smelly asses.

Now I know who to send Punjab Pete's delivery to.

 

[RA-5C Vigilante]

My only fear is of the fallout that will eventually go all across the U.S. at varying toxicity levels. It would probably roll over the whole CONUS, so think about the industry and business on the east coast, all the crops in the midwest, all the Californians that would... the crops in the upper midwest, all get affected. It would make the shutdowns and dictatorial emergency powers right now look like kiddie shit when you start telling people to ready some fallout shelters.

 

[SIGSEGV]

1. What would be the precise cause(s) of the war?

POO

A. What would be the buildup?

IN

B. What would be the flashpoint that finally begins the war proper?

LOO

2. Who would ally with either party in the wake of the war? Who will remain neutral?

India gets dung beetles and maybe the chinks. Pakistan probably gets goats.

A. Is anyone likely to switch sides over time?

The goats might switch over to India's side once the Pakistanis start raping them.

3. What would be the immediate economic effects on the South Asian, general Asian, and the world that this war would have?

Loss of tech support.

4. What would be the immediate sociopolitical effects on South Asia, continental Asia, and the world that this war would have?

Who cares?

5. What would be the immediate cultural effects on South Asia, continental Asia, and the world that this war would have?

We might get some funny memes out of it.

6. How would this war affect the South Asian geographical landscape?

Yes.

7. Who would win, and how would they have achieved this victory?

India would glass the entire country of Pakistan. Also they might accidentally drop a nuke on themselves and/or China in the process.

A. Would this end differently from one side just beating the other, as with a peace treaty? Or is it something else entirely?

Dead people can't sign treaties.

8. What would be the sociopolitical, economic, cultural, and geographical aftermath of the war in both the immediate and the long run, across South Asia, general Asia, and the entire world?

The region would smell slightly better.

9. Will strategic/tactical usage of nuclear weaponry eventually be involved?

Yes.

Bonus: if Pakistan loses, what should it be renamed? Personally, I'm partial to names like "Urdustan" or "the Punjab-Sindh".

Crateristan.

 

[Milkis]

I won't comment on the rest, but I have some notion of how (1.) could come about:

1.) Election time approaches. Modi (or his successor) need a win over the INC, and the traditional BJP/RSS political machine just isn't cutting it. India loudly accuses Pakistan of hosting terrorists / damming up the Punjab / letting the Chinese build a missile base in Karachi (pick all that apply). There is some truth to the latter, as the Chinese have invested something like $200 billion of OBOR money in Pakistan's infrastructure, mostly to connect Pakistan and China in two ways:
- the megaport at Gwalior on the Indian Ocean.
- the modern heavy railway line crossing the country from Gwalior, north via Islamabad, linking to the Chinese rail network via the Himalayan pass at Khunjerab.
Both are nearing completion by the time this takes place.

2.) The IAF plans a couple airstrikes in Kashmir to get the ol' bakchodi crowd pumped up. These should be easy in-and-out wins like in 2019, but instead, the Pakistanis put up resistance this time. Shit gets messy as both sides' air forces are in a state of organisational chaos, with the Indians busy switching from SCO to NATO suppliers, and vice-versa for Pakistan (which they are committed to doing as of this year). There are a couple shootdowns or a school is bombed or something.

3.) Unfortunately, China has pumped enough money into Gwalior and the Khunjerab Pass that they now have a vested interest in Pakistan, and tell the Indians to knock that shit off. The BJP watches their poll numbers and says "no u". And so the Pakistanis sign an agreement to let the Chinese station PLAAF missile defense sites around Pakistan, to prevent the IAF from doing it again.

4.) India sees this as a major escalation, which it would be, because now an arm of the Chinese military is not glowering at them from over the Himalayas, but across the nice, flat, maneuverable plains of Rajasthan and Gujarat. The whole election thing is secondary now. India takes their case to the UN that China is escalating tensions, but, surprise!:
- Every country gets a vote at the UN, and the Chinese have also pumped a bunch of money into a bunch of other shithole states who are now going to bat for China.
- NATO thinks the BJP is rattling sabres and their support is absent or lacklustre.
- China has a permanent UNSC veto and India has jack.
- Sri Lanka and Bangladesh come down on the side of their pimp Daddy Xi, which spooks India big time, as they now feel encircled.

5.) The Indian joint staff decides they've had enough, and plan to seize the Pakistani half of Kashmir, specifically the Khunjerab pass. They gamble that if they do it quickly enough, they can cut off Pakistan from China, and present it as a fait accompli. The Chinese will be locked behind the Himalayas again, and unwilling to escalate, will just reee at the UNGA and then back down. Massing sufficient forces for an offensive would be detected by satellite immediately, so the Indians opt to open with a massive salvo of precision-guided munitions to cripple the Pakistani rail and telecom network in Kashmir.

6.) Surprise 2! The Indians were actually kind of right, because China has developed and smuggled a bunch of new laser-based missile defence units into Pakistan, which cut the Indian missiles to pieces. They're gigawatt-scale and totally unknown to India or NATO at that point, but the attack forces China's hand and their existence is revealed. The Indian land attack runs piecemeal, not into a crippled Pakistani Army, but elements of the PLA guarding the laser installation sites, and an undeclared mini-war breaks out, like at Khalkin Gol. The PLA starts pouring in to northern Pakistan.

7.) However, the Indians have a little trick that neither Japan nor the USSR had in 1937: they launch tactical nukes. Without asking China first, the Pakistanis respond by launching a full nuclear counterforce attack against India. The shit has now, as they say, hit the streets. The Indians respond in kind, and their nukes run head-first, again, into a giant net of lazors. Maybe 20% of the Indian attack gets through, but 100% of the Pakistani attack does. We now have a moderately crippled Pakistan and a totally crippled India. Whatever portion of the Indian Army and IAF were massed along their northern border for the Kashmir attack are now poop dust.

8.) China wisely does nothing. They have just demonstrated that MAD no longer applies to them. They have fended off (by proxy) an Indian nuclear attack, and could maybe defeat a US attack as well. The rest of the world quietly goes "oh shit" and, instead of rushing to India's aid, starts setting up laser sites to prevent themselves from getting nuked with impunity. In the mean time, the Pakistanis mobilize and prepare to knock India out of the fight for good.

 

[DragoonSierra]

I won't comment on the rest, but I have some notion of how (1.) could come about:

1.) Election time approaches. Modi (or his successor) need a win over the INC, and the traditional BJP/RSS political machine just isn't cutting it. India loudly accuses Pakistan of hosting terrorists / damming up the Punjab / letting the Chinese build a missile base in Karachi (pick all that apply). There is some truth to the latter, as the Chinese have invested something like $200 billion of OBOR money in Pakistan's infrastructure, mostly to connect Pakistan and China in two ways:
- the megaport at Gwalior on the Indian Ocean.
- the modern heavy railway line crossing the country from Gwalior, north via Islamabad, linking to the Chinese rail network via the Himalayan pass at Khunjerab.
Both are nearing completion by the time this takes place.

2.) The IAF plans a couple airstrikes in Kashmir to get the ol' bakchodi crowd pumped up. These should be easy in-and-out wins like in 2019, but instead, the Pakistanis put up resistance this time. Shit gets messy as both sides' air forces are in a state of organisational chaos, with the Indians busy switching from SCO to NATO suppliers, and vice-versa for Pakistan (which they are committed to doing as of this year). There are a couple shootdowns or a school is bombed or something.

3.) Unfortunately, China has pumped enough money into Gwalior and the Khunjerab Pass that they now have a vested interest in Pakistan, and tell the Indians to knock that shit off. The BJP watches their poll numbers and says "no u". And so the Pakistanis sign an agreement to let the Chinese station PLAAF missile defense sites around Pakistan, to prevent the IAF from doing it again.

4.) India sees this as a major escalation, which it would be, because now an arm of the Chinese military is not glowering at them from over the Himalayas, but across the nice, flat, maneuverable plains of Rajasthan and Gujarat. The whole election thing is secondary now. India takes their case to the UN that China is escalating tensions, but, surprise!:
- Every country gets a vote at the UN, and the Chinese have also pumped a bunch of money into a bunch of other shithole states who are now going to bat for China.
- NATO thinks the BJP is rattling sabres and their support is absent or lacklustre.
- China has a permanent UNSC veto and India has jack.
- Sri Lanka and Bangladesh come down on the side of their pimp Daddy Xi, which spooks India big time, as they now feel encircled.

5.) The Indian joint staff decides they've had enough, and plan to seize the Pakistani half of Kashmir, specifically the Khunjerab pass. They gamble that if they do it quickly enough, they can cut off Pakistan from China, and present it as a fait accompli. The Chinese will be locked behind the Himalayas again, and unwilling to escalate, will just reee at the UNGA and then back down. Massing sufficient forces for an offensive would be detected by satellite immediately, so the Indians opt to open with a massive salvo of precision-guided munitions to cripple the Pakistani rail and telecom network in Kashmir.

6.) Surprise 2! The Indians were actually kind of right, because China has developed and smuggled a bunch of new laser-based missile defence units into Pakistan, which cut the Indian missiles to pieces. They're gigawatt-scale and totally unknown to India or NATO at that point, but the attack forces China's hand and their existence is revealed. The Indian land attack runs piecemeal, not into a crippled Pakistani Army, but elements of the PLA guarding the laser installation sites, and an undeclared mini-war breaks out, like at Khalkin Gol. The PLA starts pouring in to northern Pakistan.

7.) However, the Indians have a little trick that neither Japan nor the USSR had in 1937: they launch tactical nukes. Without asking China first, the Pakistanis respond by launching a full nuclear counterforce attack against India. The shit has now, as they say, hit the streets. The Indians respond in kind, and their nukes run head-first, again, into a giant net of lazors. Maybe 20% of the Indian attack gets through, but 100% of the Pakistani attack does. We now have a moderately crippled Pakistan and a totally crippled India. Whatever portion of the Indian Army and IAF were massed along their northern border for the Kashmir attack are now poop dust.

8.) China wisely does nothing. They have just demonstrated that MAD no longer applies to them. They have fended off (by proxy) an Indian nuclear attack, and could maybe defeat a US attack as well. The rest of the world quietly goes "oh shit" and, instead of rushing to India's aid, starts setting up laser sites to prevent themselves from getting nuked with impunity. In the mean time, the Pakistanis mobilize and prepare to knock India out of the fight for good.

while this whole thing seems unlikely, 5 and 6 is where it gets real ridiculous