The Last of Us: Part 2 - This thread has been double-DMCA’d by Sony Interactive Entertainment

Mao Hao Hao

Nyaaaa....
kiwifarms.net
I dug up some more muscled women characters, as there have been dozens, all with various forms of muscles, but they all have certain aspects or features in their designs which clearly show them as still being female (not to mention they are much better developed as characters, even the villains). (Some of them may be slightly NSFW)
Terraformars.jpg

Michelle K Davis, Terraformars (pretty much most of the women in this are built, being soldiers and all)
Qwaser no Stigmata.jpg

Nikuma, Seikon no Qwaser
Hellsing.png

Zorin, Hellsing (pretty good example of how to make a female character look masculine, but still be obviously female, and not just using the boobs)
Jormungand 2.jpg

Valmet,Jormungand
The latter one, from Jormungand, even has a whole vengeance plot for herself, about avenging her murdered squadmates. There are so many great/semi-decent characters out there already to take inspiration from for strong females, but people keep taking the lazy routes of either 'man, but with boobs', or just an absolute bitch of a character that no one likes. In Abby's case, she was both.
 

Sekirodiealot

kiwifarms.net
You know, seeing people defend abby on the basis of them seeing muscular women is hilarious because I'm sure those women they saw actually worked hard to earn those muscles and are likely more likeable than abby. Also them trying to justify abby killing joel is funny because joel didn't know that doctor was her dad and she dodged the question of how does she know him and tommy.
They don't understand why people find her bad, especially her friends unsympathetic since none of them questioned abby about if killing joel was gonna make things right when he saved her from a horde dor example.
 
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Prester John

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I heard this game needs to move maybe 20 million units in order to be profitable. We know it reached 4 million in 'record time' but does it have a shot of reaching 16 million more or are sales going to go from record breaking highs to a complete bomb in the long run?
It probably broke even with 4 million. The number I've seen thrown around on this forum for development budget is $100 million. It sold 4 million opening week at the $60 price point. 4 million at $60 is $240 million in revenue. I don't know about video games, but in movies, they say to double the budget to account for marketing cost. So let's do the same here, and assume the development and marketing budget comes to $200 million. Well, the game has just made $240 million - $200 million = $40 million in profit.

I made a lot of assumptions there. I don't know if the development budget is $100 million (that's just what I've seen thrown around here) and I don't know about marketing in the video game industry. But needing to sell 20 million units to be profitable? I find that hard to believe. Let's assume that the remaining 16 million units are sold at just $30 instead of $60. Then:
4 million X $60 + 16 million X $30 = $240 million + $480 million = $720 million

Is the break-even point really anywhere close to that amount?
 

Zeke Von Genbu

Behold my Blade PANDORIA
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It probably broke even with 4 million. The number I've seen thrown around on this forum for development budget is $100 million. It sold 4 million opening week at the $60 price point. 4 million at $60 is $240 million in revenue. I don't know about video games, but in movies, they say to double the budget to account for marketing cost. So let's do the same here, and assume the development and marketing budget comes to $200 million. Well, the game has just made $240 million - $200 million = $40 million in profit.

I made a lot of assumptions there. I don't know if the development budget is $100 million (that's just what I've seen thrown around here) and I don't know about marketing in the video game industry. But needing to sell 20 million units to be profitable? I find that hard to believe. Let's assume that the remaining 16 million units are sold at just $30 instead of $60. Then:
4 million X $60 + 16 million X $30 = $240 million + $480 million = $720 million

Is the break-even point really anywhere close to that amount?
Where do the sales come from and who gets what portion of that $60? Does Sony get a portion of that 60 if i buy it on PSN? Does Amazon? Does any other possible retailer? It isn't as simple as $60 x 4M units = 240M which therefore = profit. I don't know fully how these cuts work or what deals are at play, but I very highly doubt ND gets the full $60. Without this information determining what is the break-even point is impossible. The 20M sales might be the desired to make the return on investment positive enough for the financial risk and investment given to a project of this scale and development length. Remember in finance money has a time value attributed to it.

This is why sayings like "A dollar today is worth more then a dollar tomorrow" matter, because the faster you receive money, the faster you can use said money to get more money. That is why compound interest is a thing. If this game was in development for half a decade + then that is a lot of time where money has been thrown into a pot and expected to stew until it releases an actual product. That is quite long even for this industry, so the returns likely need to be higher for it to be deemed a success. Breaking-even is a pretty shitty result for a project that has taken an entire console generation to come out.
 

Ponderous Pillock

Welcome to Triple T, Tards, Troons and Trolls!
True & Honest Fan
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Everyone has already pointed out how unceremoniously Joel gets snuffed out of the story, and how a lot of the characters in the game just abruptly get killed out of nowhere. Which sure, some people like that because it's realistic, but does it really have th same impact as the deaths in the first game?
Unfortunately unceremonious snuffing is the current flavour of the month with various hacky writers. It largely started with the popularisation of A Song of Ice and Fire where characters are regularly snuffed out. That got kicked into overdrive with the gruseome portrayal in the TV show.

We know the reality is LTOU 2 went through a massive rewrite, what? Four years ago or so? So right in the middle of Game of Thrones Fever.

It's a shame because, as always, The Walking Dead did it better with Issue 100 being both the revealing and introduction of Negan (who'd been set up in previous issues but unseen) and the rather unceremonious ending of fan (and author) favourite Glenn.

It was a meaningless shock death that had enormous impact that cascaded down through the next enormous run of the comic.
 

Hangula Hungui

Please don’t push me, mummy packed me yoghurt
kiwifarms.net
Printing, shipping, distribution, distributors cut, retail cut etc.. I know that Sony earns the most on each sold disc (digital is almost entirely) but I wouldn’t put it above $30 tag.
 
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Prester John

kiwifarms.net
Where do the sales come from and who gets what portion of that $60? Does Sony get a portion of that 60 if i buy it on PSN? Does Amazon? Does any other possible retailer? It isn't as simple as $60 x 4M units = 240M which therefore = profit. I don't know fully how these cuts work or what deals are at play, but I very highly doubt ND gets the full $60. Without this information determining what is the break-even point is impossible. The 20M sales might be the desired to make the return on investment positive enough for the financial risk and investment given to a project of this scale and development length. Remember in finance money has a time value attributed to it.

This is why sayings like "A dollar today is worth more then a dollar tomorrow" matter, because the faster you receive money, the faster you can use said money to get more money. That is why compound interest is a thing. If this game was in development for half a decade + then that is a lot of time where money has been thrown into a pot and expected to stew until it releases an actual product. That is quite long even for this industry, so the returns likely need to be higher for it to be deemed a success. Breaking-even is a pretty shitty result for a project that has taken an entire console generation to come out.
Well, we can calculate the time value of money. If we assume that $100 million could have achieved, let's say, a 7% annual rate of return over the 7 years of game development if it had been invested elsewhere, instead:
compound-interest-formula-diagram.png


After 7 years, that $100 million would become $161 million. So the game would need to achieve at least $61 million of profit to make up for the lost investment yield that the $100 million would have otherwise achieved.

So, to be considered a success over a generic investment, the game needs to achieve:
$100 million budget + $61 million (investment opportunity cost) + $100 million (marketing cost equal to $100 million budget) = $261 million in sales

I still think this is well short of my $720 estimate that 20 million in sales would bring in (which is probably a conservative estimate, because I assumed only 4 million sales at the $60 price point).

As for your question, what is ND's cut? Well, did Sony also front some of the development costs since this is a Playstation exclusive? (They did something similar, for example, on Street Fighter V.) If Sony and ND shared the burden of the development costs, then they share the spoils of the sales revenue and I think the break-even point would probably be about the same.

P.S. I don't think this game is going to sell anywhere near 20 million units. My prediction, earlier in the thread, was 8 million and I stand by that. At 8 million sales, I think the game will turn a profit, but nowhere near what the expectations were for a tentpole game like this. It will be like The Rise of Skywalker, which should have made twice as much as it did.
 
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moocow

Moo.
True & Honest Fan
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My, wow. That's some shitty bait. Let's unravel this. Within a simple google search I have found your reddit account (archive), you are told explicitly on the signup page to not use the same name as other websites, you fucking retard.

Now, let's get into why you signed up on the farms. As you commented on /r/drama about 13 hours ago. (archive) You signed up here to make shitty "bait" by defending trannies. And you spend all of your time doing this on reddit as well. I have thus come to the conclusion that you have no life.
Oh great, /r/drama has swung to the left again? Bummer. It was mildly entertaining a few years ago when it leaned center-right, but then again back then it was still moderately "safe" to make fun of liberals, anarchists and libertarians on reddit so long as you did it from within the "containment" subs. It must be dreadfully boring now.
 

Zeke Von Genbu

Behold my Blade PANDORIA
kiwifarms.net
Well, we can calculate the time value of money. If we assume that $100 million could have achieved, let's say, a 7% annual rate of return over the 7 years of game development if it had been invested elsewhere, instead:
View attachment 1419202

After 7 years, that $100 million would become $161 million. So the game would need to achieve at least $61 million of profit to make up for the lost investment yield that the $100 million would have otherwise achieved.

So, to be considered a success over a generic investment, the game needs to achieve:
$100 million budget + $61 million (investment opportunity cost) + $100 million (marketing cost equal to $100 million budget) = $261 million in sales

I still think this is well short of my $720 estimate that 20 million in sales would bring in (which is probably a conservative estimate, because I assumed only 4 million sales at the $60 price point).

As for your question, what is ND's cut? Well, did Sony also front some of the development costs since this is a Playstation exclusive? (They did something similar, for example, on Street Fighter V.) If Sony and ND shared the burden of the development costs, then they share the spoils of the sales revenue and I think the break-even point would probably be about the same.

P.S. I don't think this game is going to sell anywhere near 20 million units. My prediction, earlier in the thread, was 8 million and I stand by that. At 8 million sales, I think the game will turn a profit, but nowhere near what the expectations were for a tentpole game like this. It will be like The Rise of Skywalker, which should have made twice as much as it did.
While you can calculate compound interest that way, if you want to be truly accurate you need to calculate when it was spent (as it isn't like we spent 200M right out the gate from year 1). This actually helps your case as it lowers the amount of time needed for some, but not all, of that money to earn. I'm just autistic so I need to make that clear. My main point in commenting to you was that you can't just take 60 x 4M and determine that you've made a profit and a good investment.

To get into more detail we have to add a different aspect to this, risk return trade offs.

What we also need is a value determined for risk payment, as in we need to determine what an investor would need to accept a proposal for a 7 year long project like this and how risky they might consider a project that is going in a "daring new direction". So you need to not only consider the price point for time value of money, but you need to add an additional amount for an investor to consider this project worth it with all the risks that may exist from their perspective. All investments have risks but some yield more then others and the longer the time to develop something typically means more risk is involved, and I don't know what a suit would consider a reasonable risk return for a project like this.

For example if in your example if we assume 7% for a normal investment, this is usually stock or some other normal fairly stable investment that typical suits understand inside and out, then this project needs say 12 or 13% (very arbitrary number) due to the additional risks determined. Such issues could be considered such as: long development in general, having to generate new technology that might take forever to make and may or may not yield expected results (especially when you have to make it stable on a console) which can result in wasted time and budget, or "daring new directions" in the story like killing characters people like. Those just come off the top of my head.

I also highly doubt Sony is giving ND a 100% fair even split down the middle, Sony has way more bargining power then ND in this arrangement as they front some of the costs, publish the game, and provide the platform that ND's customers are most familiar with while being the current leader in the console market. Sony also takes hits on console sales, so software sales need to be much more lucrative margin wise to make up for this loss. This is completely ignoring any distribution and retailer fees outside of these 2 parties which also put more cuts against ND.

In closing, I don't think this game will just break-even, nor will I think it'll dramatically bomb, what I am saying is that that $60 most of it is likely not going to ND at all in the grand scheme of things and that a rough estimate of a budget to generate revenue over are not the only factors that determine TLOU2's success as a financial investment.
 
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Atomsk

Pirate King
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Pretty sure I'm almost done the game and to be honest, I'd rate it like a 5.5 so far. The story is meh but it has it's moments like the flashbacks with Joel, I'm playing on hard so some things take a couple tries and I'm actually being challenged which is important to me in a game. The memes and fan backlash are still funny but I can't legit call it a bad game at this point. It passes as slightly above average for me, it's no Dead Space or Resident Evil but it's passable and fun at times.
 

SteelPlatedHeart

Not-So-New Guy
True & Honest Fan
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Pretty sure I'm almost done the game and to be honest, I'd rate it like a 5.5 so far. The story is meh but it has it's moments like the flashbacks with Joel, I'm playing on hard so some things take a couple tries and I'm actually being challenged which is important to me in a game. The memes and fan backlash are still funny but I can't legit call it a bad game at this point. It passes as slightly above average for me, it's no Dead Space or Resident Evil but it's passable and fun at times.
General consensus is that it’s mainly the story that drags this game down heavily.
 

Cubanodun

Metal Synthpop Hero
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You cant spell Ignorant without IGN

2020-06-30 16.22.25 mobile.twitter.com 9c75534c5dde.jpg


He forgot to mention that the sales went downhill after the first week, Sony consider 10 million units a success, at best like someone said here will get 6 or 8 millions, would not be surprised if it get ported to PC just to squeeze a few shekels more

For perspective the worst thing that ubisoft hsa made in years, AC Unity sold 10 millions and is still a hot garbage

Edit: ayyyyy

2020-06-30 16.28.22 mobile.twitter.com f68c5eb93227.jpg
 

Atomsk

Pirate King
kiwifarms.net
General consensus is that it’s mainly the story that drags this game down heavily.
If rating on story alone, I'd give it like a 4 and it's not worse just because it has it's high points while the moment-to-moment stuff is kinda just boring and most of the cast is just fucking awful and devoid of any real personality. Like the pregnant Jewish chick and the Asian guy, what is compelling me to really give a shit about them? I honestly think Abby's supporting cast is better, like the cult weirdos she helps out are characters I actually find fascinating.

All and all, I just don't see how Cuckmann could think this is high art and tasteful story-telling. He pulls off some of the cheapest tricks in the book like killing dogs, killing pregnant chicks, killing a character's family members. Pretty sure he thinks that sad-porn is good writing on it's own when you actually need to build things up and execute it correctly. I think he did this pretty well for Abby's dad but all other cases don't hold much water and just come off as Steven Universe tier " You better cry, faggot"
 

blablabla

kiwifarms.net
You cant spell Ignorant without IGN

View attachment 1419457

He forgot to mention that the sales went downhill after the first week, Sony consider 10 million units a success, at best like someone said here will get 6 or 8 millions, would not be surprised if it get ported to PC just to squeeze a few shekels more

For perspective the worst thing that ubisoft hsa made in years, AC Unity sold 10 millions and is still a hot garbage

Edit: ayyyyy

View attachment 1419468
i love to defend the finances of a multi billion company to own the chuds, what a fucking moron
 
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