World Two Cancuck elections in April: Alberta on the 16th; PEI on the 23rd - Will the Dippers pull it off again? Will the Greens pull it off? Will the referendum pass?

What party would vote for?

  • New Democratic Party

    Votes: 2 10.5%
  • United Conservative Party

    Votes: 9 47.4%
  • Alberta Party

    Votes: 2 10.5%
  • Liberal Party

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Freedom Conservative Party

    Votes: 1 5.3%
  • Other

    Votes: 5 26.3%

  • Total voters
    19
  • Poll closed .

Army Burger

The Original Burger
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Sounds about right, given how low the Liberals' numbers are in that poll (not to mention the NDP, but then again the NDP wasn't historically that popular throughout much of Atlantic Canada). But I'm guessing it's the habitual Liberal (either actual Liberals or Swing) voters that wouldn't have been able to bring themselves to vote Conservative instead - something something Stop Harper - and they're pissed enough at the NDP that their 'only' option is the Greens.

The other option is that the pollsters want to make the Greens look more viable than they actually are by sampling a hippie commune. Because reasons.
PEI had a referendum on electoral reform back in 2016. The referendum ultimately resulted in MMRP, or Mixed Member Proportional Representation, getting 52% of the vote. However, PEI's premier. Wade McLauchlan refused to act on the results of the referendum because of the voter turnout rate was 36.46%. This pissed off a lot of voters, and so they've largely flocked to the Greens.
 

Koby_Fish

The advice of the GALACTICALLY STUPID
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
PEI had a referendum on electoral reform back in 2016. The referendum ultimately resulted in MMRP, or Mixed Member Proportional Representation, getting 52% of the vote. However, PEI's premier. Wade McLauchlan refused to act on the results of the referendum because of the voter turnout rate was 36.46%. This pissed off a lot of voters, and so they've largely flocked to the Greens.
36% huh? Wow. Lotsa "there's no point in voting" chucklefucks in PEI. I guess they saw the results in British Columbia - TWO referendums proposing MMRP - and both times it came out "No" and thought they were fine.

I wonder how many non-voters are aware their continuous non-vote is basically acquiescence via abdication. Like literally, whatever happens, they're fine with, or they pretty much have to be.
 

Glad I couldn't help

Now with edge anime avatar
kiwifarms.net
36% huh? Wow. Lotsa "there's no point in voting" chucklefucks in PEI. I guess they saw the results in British Columbia - TWO referendums proposing MMRP - and both times it came out "No" and thought they were fine.

I wonder how many non-voters are aware their continuous non-vote is basically acquiescence via abdication. Like literally, whatever happens, they're fine with, or they pretty much have to be.
Actually, PEI has some of the highest voting rates in Canada, with turnouts of 75-80%, with last election having a turnout of around 82%. Probably because the constituencies are so small, so there is a tighter connection to the MLAs.

The problem with the referendum was that it was held separately from any provincial election.
Election day is finally here in Alberta.

My predictions:

UCP win a majority government, with 59 seats
NDP will get 26 seats.
Alberta Party will win 1 seat
Liberals will win 1 seat

I think the NDP will win all the ridings in Edmonton, as well as a few in Calgary and Lethbridge.
The CBC's poll tracker has the Tories winning 66 (57-70) seats to the NDP 20 (17-29) and the Alberta Party getting 1 and the Liberals nothing. Note they forecast the UCP getting seats in Red Dead Edmonton, unlike what you are forecasting.
 

Koby_Fish

The advice of the GALACTICALLY STUPID
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Actually, PEI has some of the highest voting rates in Canada, with turnouts of 75-80%, with last election having a turnout of around 82%. Probably because the constituencies are so small, so there is a tighter connection to the MLAs.

The problem with the referendum was that it was held separately from any provincial election.

The CBC's poll tracker has the Tories winning 66 (57-70) seats to the NDP 20 (17-29) and the Alberta Party getting 1 and the Liberals nothing. Note they forecast the UCP getting seats in Red Dead Edmonton, unlike what you are forecasting.
for a general election, sure.
For a referendum? They probably thought it wasn't important.
 
Reactions: Apoth42

Lou Wrong

Butthurt about Buddyloids
kiwifarms.net
FWIW, Canadian polls do not go riding by riding, generally, in the same way that an American poll will go into individual states or congressional districts. They tend to be much less accurate as a result when it comes to what individual seats will do. I'd take any "win this many seats in this region" polls with a huge grain of salt- even the consensus of multiple polls can be wildly off-base from what actually happens, especially with the "new political system" in place with a sitting NDP government and a largely united conservative party running in opposition.
 

Glad I couldn't help

Now with edge anime avatar
kiwifarms.net
Looks like a UCP majority gov't.

728456


Jason Kenney has capped his three-year goal of uniting Alberta's political right, leading his United Conservative Party to a majority win over the province's first-ever NDP government.
Created in 2017 through a merger of the Wildrose and Progressive Conservative parties, early results project the UCP to win a majority of seats in Tuesday's provincial election.
Rachel Notley's NDP will become Alberta's Official Opposition. The party dropped from 52 seats, with the majority of support concentrated in Notley's home base of Edmonton.
Kenney, a former cabinet minister in Stephen Harper's Conservative government, won the leadership of the Alberta Progressive Conservative party in 2016 before leading the PCs into a successful 2017 merger with the Wildrose Party. That same year, he won the UCP leadership handily in a contest later marred by controversy.
 
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TerribleIdeas™

kiwifarms.net
Election day is finally here in Alberta.

My predictions:

UCP win a majority government, with 59 seats
NDP will get 26 seats.
Alberta Party will win 1 seat
Liberals will win 1 seat

I think the NDP will win all the ridings in Edmonton, as well as a few in Calgary and Lethbridge.

Pretty close, at this point. Kenney is definitely forming a majority gov't.
 

Koby_Fish

The advice of the GALACTICALLY STUPID
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Getting over 10% of popular vote and no seats to show for it? Oof.
Alberta Party is basically the Crazy Rose party for Leftists.

Question, what powers do provinces even have in Canada? Since doesn't federal law pretty much have absolute supremacy?
Education, Health Care, Motor Vehicle laws, stuff like that.
 

Apoth42

Hehe xd
kiwifarms.net
Question, what powers do provinces even have in Canada? Since doesn't federal law pretty much have absolute supremacy?
In theory it should be the US that grants its states more autonomy but Canada actually does it better in some regards.

+Provinces have control over their public policy. For example, provinces control their education and healthcare and messing with that is viewed as absurd. In the USA the federal government controls the education system at the federal level through policies like Common Core and through its power to allocate funding. This was as a result of the New Deal and efforts to combat segregation.

+Canadian provinces have more freedom over how they can interpret and enforce laws and the local laws reign supreme unless they violate human rights.

+Canadian provinces have near absolute authority over their resources and land. The USA interferes in state trade and resource/land rights via the commerce clause and its ownership of federal land. Canadian provinces jealously guard their own affairs while in the USA a State will accept funding with strings attached.

+Interprovincial trade is regulated by the provinces while the USA is required to be one big free trade zone.

+Canadian provinces have the right to secede from Canada following a majority referendum

-Canadian provinces do not make criminal law or have largely meaningless constitutions

-Quebec gets special treatment


Canadian states are granted more autonomy but are given more responsibilities. American States race to the bottom to cut taxes and run up massive deficits because they aren't really expected to pay for everything and know they'll get bailed out in exchange for a few states rights. Canadian provinces run everything and are expected to be fiscally responsible (except Quebec). Canadian provinces jealously guard their rights because they basically get act as their own little kingdom.

The Canadian system came about after the American Civil War and provinces had to be convinced to join and it shows. The American system was originally kinda rough and everything was settled through massive scandals and conflicts (where the federal government had an obvious upper hand).

Getting over 10% of popular vote and no seats to show for it? Oof.
First Past the Post has some benefits.

Absolutely unsurprising. Shame they won't act on their secessionist threats. The only way for that province to have any power is for it to actually threaten to leave.
 

Army Burger

The Original Burger
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net

Pretty close, at this point. Kenney is definitely forming a majority gov't.
I'll admit I didn't expect the Alberta Party or Alberta Liberals to do quite as poor as they did.
 

TerribleIdeas™

kiwifarms.net
The aftermath of this election is going to be interesting, since Kenney is virulently anti-union, pro right-to-work, pro-corporatist, and was part of Harper's cabinet when they introduced the TFW (temporary foreign workers) program, which had the end result of every single chain restaurant in the country being entirely staffed by Filipinos, East Indians, and Somalis, and non-union private sector companies hiring on Filipinos to fill trade positions at half the wages of certified tradespeople.

He's pro-pipeline, which his province needs, but Notley was pragmatic about the need to get the oil to open water, so that wasn't a deciding factor. Her gov't was promising that 4 major plants were going to break ground in the first 6 months after the election, but that apparently wasn't enough to convince the voters that they should give her 4 more years. That said, he's a major fan of the Bob Rae/Ralph Klein school of economics, which involves cutting front-line staff from health care and education, while ignoring the massive administrative and bureaucratic bloat that exists, and as usual, is the majority of the gov't's spending woes.

Be worth watching to see if he makes any moves to trim middle and upper management in public sectors unions, or if he just expects the working middle class and tradespeople to accept being bent over by his aggressively "big-business can do no wrong" attitude.
 
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