UK General Election -

[neelyky]

I know that there's a general forum asking about our political leanings, but since there's an election coming up soon -- and a fairly interesting one by UK standards since we seem to be moving away from the two-and-a-half party system I grew up with -- I thought it might be illustrating to run a straw poll on here and see how my fellow Britfag kiwis would run the country.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

I'm in Scotland and locally it's a split between SNP and Labour so I'll probably vote SNP. (I wish that we had proportional representation instead of first past the post)

 

[neelyky]

The constituency I'm in is basically 50/50 tory/LD, so every election is a choice between voting where my principles lie (Plaid Cymru), or being cynical and voting for the lesser of two cunts.

 

[Atsimuel]

I live in a very secure Conservative seat so it won't really make a difference, but I'm voting Labour - unless I change my mind again. I was thinking about voting Conservative purely because at first I wasn't confident in Miliband, but since my local (incumbent) Conservative MP is a total shitcunt who does dodgy stuff with his funding I was going to spoil my ballot. Miliband has really shone so far in the campaign though, so barring any major scandals or fuck-ups, which is unlikely, I'll be voting Labour - It will certainly be smarter than voting Lib Dem like I did last time.

 

[WachtAmWeb]

I voted Labour in 2010 and I'll probably be doing the same this time around, but whereas in 2010 I lived in a pretty safe Labour seat, I live in a completely safe Tory seat (complete with a scumbag authoritarian MP) now so it's pretty annoying. Still, at least my MP's majority is going to be seriously eroded - in my neck of the woods the traditional Tory vote has been slashed by the rise of UKIP, who poll around 16%.
I don't agree with 100% of Labour's policies, but I'd rather give Ed a try than put up with Cameron for another five years. I work in the NHS (not clinical, I hasten to add) and I see first-hand the damage that this government has done. Furthermore, I don't trust the Tories to maintain spending on Defence, policing, local government and education.
I'd consider the Greens if a) they had a chance in my constituency and b) if they didn't have such batshit international policy. The Lib Dems' record in government hasn't been that bad but I don't think they stand a chance at this election - the rumour mill suggests Clegg might even lose his seat, and Vince Cable is almost certain to lose his. I wouldn't vote UKIP on principle.
I am worried about the rise of the SNP in Scotland - I think it's fair enough that Scots feel alienated by the system and are looking for a party that will represent them to the rest of the country, but I don't like the idea of another Indy ref, and I find Alex Salmond repugnant - I know that if he wins a Westminster seat he'll just take every opportunity to be slimy and annoying. Likewise, while I can understand the SNP's opposition to Trident, and agree that in an ideal world we wouldn't need nukes, my opinion is that given the current state of world affairs it would be very dangerous to give up our deterrent.

 

[Night Terror]

I considered voting Green but they're anti-nuclear and they have ridiculous international policies. Plus I'll feel like a washed-up old hippie. It's difficult to choose a party that really fits what I'm looking for - I took the isidewith quiz and got Lib Dem, but >voting for clegg. I'll probably end up voting Labour.

 

[GV 002]

I live in a area that is completely dominated with UKIP propaganda that also happens to be an EDL stomping ground, so I feel riiiiight at home as a huge leftie! My vote's most definitely going Labour, but my faith in Milliband as a leader isn't the strongest really. I see him as more of an academic and not someone with enough bite to lead the country, like Prescott (despite all the bad press, I thought he was great) for example. I voted Lib Dem last year and, along with many like me, boy did I feel silly afterwards.

Both the Tories and UKIP can sit and swivel.

 

[Night Terror]

While I don't personally think we need to be in the EU and I'm up for leaving it, the problem with UKIP (other than their obvious racism) is the fact they've got nothing going for them APART from getting the UK out of the EU. They've got nothing after that, except some vague immigration policies. I don't particularly like Milliband and I think he's a bit of a wuss, but I'll still probably vote for Labour. Can't be any worse than the Tories.

 

[Atsimuel]

I considered voting Green but they're anti-nuclear and they have ridiculous international policies. Plus I'll feel like a washed-up old hippie. It's difficult to choose a party that really fits what I'm looking for - I took the isidewith quiz and got Lib Dem, but >voting for clegg. I'll probably end up voting Labour.

Yeah, don't vote Green. My sister works in the adolescent crime deterrent sphere and used to live in Brighton, and apparently the fact that the Greens don't seem to agree with each other on anything apart from environmental issues has meant that there has been a lot of mishandling of council housing and programs aimed at getting young people into work.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

I am worried about the rise of the SNP in Scotland - I think it's fair enough that Scots feel alienated by the system and are looking for a party that will represent them to the rest of the country, but I don't like the idea of another Indy ref, and I find Alex Salmond repugnant - I know that if he wins a Westminster seat he'll just take every opportunity to be slimy and annoying. Likewise, while I can understand the SNP's opposition to Trident, and agree that in an ideal world we wouldn't need nukes, my opinion is that given the current state of world affairs it would be very dangerous to give up our deterrent.

I think most people outside of Scotland might be misinformed as to why the majority of Scots vote SNP, most don't want independence and couldn't care less about Trident but we don't vote for Labour or Conservatives we vote for Scottish Labour and Scottish Conservatives and at the last Holyrood election the majority of the polices were nearly identical between all the main parties with the exception free tuition, free prescriptions and the likes ( http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-labour-plans-to-end-free-universal-benefits-8176116.html ).

Scottish Labour seem to have been pressured into having many of the same policies as the SNP (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-31708838) and going further to blatantly pander and say they'd raise money for more nurses in Scotland by creating a mansion tax which would mostly affect London (Which was booed at a Question Time in Scotland) which makes it seem like they think Scottish people hate England and would be for that kind of thing, also the fact they were adamantly against universal tuition fees before and now suddenly add it to their policies make it hard to trust them.

 

[ATM]

I wasn't going to bother this year, but having seen the poll and voted analchest I think I may go down the polling station and scrawl #FUKOBEME on the slip. Or perhaps in this case #FUKFAGRAEG or #FUKCUMERUN.

 

[Gagamaru]

millibands a feckless cunt, but voting for hims probably the only way to get someone non-tory in, so incredibly relunctant labour voter here, i guess.

 

[JU 199]

Yeah, don't vote Green. My sister works in the adolescent crime deterrent sphere and used to live in Brighton, and apparently the fact that the Greens don't seem to agree with each other on anything apart from environmental issues has meant that there has been a lot of mishandling of council housing and programs aimed at getting young people into work.

Yeah the Green party's disorganization is somewhat legendary as of late.

I'm probably gonna vote Labour. They're borderline disingenuous but it's the only way of dealing with Cameron and that sly fucker Clegg (who at the latest polls will probably loose his constituency seat)

 

[Picklechu]

I'm American, but I follow British politics pretty closely. I watched the leader's debate the other day, and that was really entertaining, not to mention the fact that, since the outcome doesn't affect me at all, I was able to go into full-blown political analyst mode. Miliband was probably hurt the most, since (A) he was attacked on his left flank by Sturgeon, Bennett, and Wood, and (B) no one really landed any hits on Cameron since he was able to "hide in plain sight," so to speak, due to the number of individuals on the stage. In addition, Miliband is going to have to do it again in a week and a half during the opposition debate while Cameron (and Nick Clegg, but let's face it, he's irrelevant) kick back and relax.

Overall, I'd be surprised if there isn't a hung Parliament. The Liberal Democrats are going to lose too many seats to be a viable coalition partner, and UKIP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru, et al aren't going to earn enough seats either. The only way I see a hung Parliament being avoided is if Labour and the SNP collectively earn enough seats to constitute a majority (which would seriously make a lot of people in England uncomfortable) or if there's a grand coalition, which just isn't going to happen. There's also the possibility of UKIP earning barely enough seats to form a coalition with the Conservatives, but, as of right now, that's even less likely than a grand coalition (since UKIP is currently projected to win ~4 seats).

 

[Ariel]

I'm the only one who voted UKIP

But that was because I want my friend to win his seat! In (unspecified location)

 

[Pickle Inspector]

I'm American, but I follow British politics pretty closely. I watched the leader's debate the other day, and that was really entertaining, not to mention the fact that, since the outcome doesn't affect me at all, I was able to go into full-blown political analyst mode. Miliband was probably hurt the most, since (A) he was attacked on his left flank by Sturgeon, Bennett, and Wood, and (B) no one really landed any hits on Cameron since he was able to "hide in plain sight," so to speak, due to the number of individuals on the stage. In addition, Miliband is going to have to do it again in a week and a half during the opposition debate while Cameron (and Nick Clegg, but let's face it, he's irrelevant) kick back and relax.

Overall, I'd be surprised if there isn't a hung Parliament. The Liberal Democrats are going to lose too many seats to be a viable coalition partner, and UKIP, the Greens, Plaid Cymru, et al aren't going to earn enough seats either. The only way I see a hung Parliament being avoided is if Labour and the SNP collectively earn enough seats to constitute a majority (which would seriously make a lot of people in England uncomfortable) or if there's a grand coalition, which just isn't going to happen. There's also the possibility of UKIP earning barely enough seats to form a coalition with the Conservatives, but, as of right now, that's even less likely than a grand coalition (since UKIP is currently projected to win ~4 seats).

The thing about Miliband is before the debates started he had such low personal ratings

Spoiler

that unless it somehow was a complete disaster he can only get more popular which is why the Conservative party made demands that parties such as the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru be included or David wouldn't participate in any debates, also they made sure it was done at the start of the campaign and not at the end, likely because last time the Lib Dems gained quite a bit of momentum as a result of the debates.

As far as SNP goes they were talks about a coalition which lately has been shot down and instead the SNP suggest a "Confidence and Supply" arrangement might be made, depending on the actual election outcome (None of the major parties will talk about this right now and if asked answer "We are aiming for a majority") so there is a reasonable chance it could be a minority Labour government instead of a coalition this time around.

The SNP have also said they would try to block any Conservative minority government, on the surface it makes it look good for Labour but a minority government which relies on other parties likely wouldn't be good for them in the long run since they'd be seen as weak, especially with Miliband already seen as a ineffectual leader although the SNP themselves have had a minority government in Scotland which worked out alright for them (They got a majority government in the following Scottish goverment) so who knows.

Also they have been talk of the Green Party, Plaid Cymru and SNP joining forces for an anti-austerity pact - http://rt.com/uk/214911-snp-cymru-green-austerity/

 

[Dudeofteenage]

A minority government doesn't necessarily lead to "weakness". Western political history is full of minority governments that were successful, some very successful.

And it's quite likely that a Labour minority government with SNP support would actually be fairly stable - if they ever tried to pass some legislation that was unpalatable to the SNP there's a decent chance that they could get Tory support for it.

"Minority government" sounds scary if you've never had one but we are basically seeing the disintegration of a two party system, so there's a lot of things that seem scary simply because they're without recent precedent, but really aren't.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

A minority government doesn't necessarily lead to "weakness". Western political history is full of minority governments that were successful, some very successful.

And it's quite likely that a Labour minority government with SNP support would actually be fairly stable - if they ever tried to pass some legislation that was unpalatable to the SNP there's a decent chance that they could get Tory support for it.

"Minority government" sounds scary if you've never had one but we are basically seeing the disintegration of a two party system, so there's a lot of things that seem scary simply because they're without recent precedent, but really aren't.

If Labour did have a successful minority government with SNP support wouldn't that just strengthen SNP support in Scotland?

I think it'll be more unstable than a coalition since Lib Dems were forced to have a united front for the most part.

 

[Dudeofteenage]

If Labour did have a successful minority government with SNP support wouldn't that just strengthen SNP support in Scotland?

Maybe? Or it might go the other way. Many minor parties find participation in government quite toxic for them. The Lib Dems are a textbook case right now. Admittedly if the SNP was not in a formal coalition with Labour they might well be able to escape this. But I think the SNP's support is equally likely to surge under a Tory government, because a lot of people seem to be abandoning Labour for the SNP because they think the SNP is a more effective anti-Tory party.

I admit I don't understand exactly what is causing the SNP's surge in support right now, but I think it's clear that the SNP are going to be the dominant force in Scotland in national elections for the immediate future, regardless of who's in government.

In the medium term a Labour-SNP government could work pretty well. The only substantial things they disagree on are things like Trident (which Labour can just get the Tories to support) and Scottish independence - but Scottish independence isn't going to happen for, at minimum, ten years after the "Nay" vote, so until the SNP starts trying to press for another referendum it could work fairly well. More devolution for Scotland short of independence is already Labour policy.

 

[Pickle Inspector]

Here's a decent article to help understand the upcoming General Elections for any non British people interested:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/15/british-election-for-non-brits-explainer

The Guardian leans slightly to the left (Last time they supported the Lib Dems and this time Labour) but it looks fairly balanced aside from calling UKIP an anti-immigration party. (They are anti open door immigration from the EU but not anti immigration in general)