What do you think is gonna happen in the 2020s? -

[Maurice Caine]

We're already in August and we're all aware of the shitshow that was 2020 so far, so I pose the question: How do you think the decade's gonna play out? Think those kooks over at r/futurology might be saying something worthwhile? Please do share your opinions.

 

[ZombiefiedFerret]

You'll get raped by furries.

 

[DumbDude42]

rate of political assassinations as well as politics/ideology motivated murders and mass murders will increase a lot

 

[some Sketchy dude]

Is anyone on reddit saying anything worthwhile?

 

[albert chan]

I’ll probably be moving to a different country and spending the rest of my life there.

 

[Dom Cruise]

This might be the decade where people stop talking and start killing, all the political arguments of the 2010s leading to actual real world violence in the 2020s.

It's kind of started already with the George Floyd riots, but that's people mostly attacking property, what if they decide to start attacking people next? The George Floyd riots have already proven that this stuff can spill out of the Twittersphere and have an impact on the real world, so what's next? The seeds might be being laid for the next level.

It might start with isolated murders, people deciding to track other people down and murder them in the night, before snowballing into larger and larger scale violence resembling an actual war, before I guess ultimately becoming an actual second Civil War.

Or, hopefully, this will be the decade in which cooler heads prevail and people calm the fuck down before it gets to that point, we've been here before, America came close to the brink of imploding 50 years ago before things calmed down, maybe history will repeat itself that way or maybe history will repeat what happened in the 1860s, it's anybody's guess at this point.

But when I look at the Antifa people in Portland chanting Black Lives Matter, I see people so brainwashed they would probably sooner strap a bomb vest on and blow themselves up than to renounce Black Lives Matter, I'm not sure there's any cooler heads left.

 

[Jewelsmakerguy]

If you are willing to believe religious wingnuts and conspriritards, Aliens/Jesus/A giant space rock will wipe us out and we won't see 2021, or we won't make it past 2022.

In my opinion, I don't see 2021 onward to be as bad as 2020's turned out to be, but I certainly don't see anything changing anytime soon.

 

[Crankenstein]

The start of the fall of commie shit in the west only to come back in 20 years, an interplanetary landing, race realism will still be widely denied, and whites will become a minority in every country.

 

[Sexy Senior Citizen]

Trump gets 4 more years, and the Left goes ballistic. But I don't think there's going to be a civil war. Antifa consists of a bunch of pussies who can't take a real punch (and they'd fold the moment someone actually fought back), while their "opposition" consists of people who would never dream of sacrificing their lives, fortunes, and sacred honor to fight back.
Corona-chan will hang out for however long Trump remains in office, and then vanish with her orange husbando into the sunset. Taxes will go up in the name of charity, and personal freedoms will be eroded in the name of tolerance. We will sacrifice our privacy in the name of convenience, swearing to do something about it but never actually doing anything because that would require a modicum of discomfort. Congress and the presidency will be occupied either by the mummified cadavers of people who were first elected 50+ years ago or by people who have no business being there. Marvel will milk its cinematic universe for all it's worth, while Disney continues to purchase media properties and expand its empire. Culture as a whole will get more "woke" as aging boomers and their Judeo-Christian viewpoints pass into history.
Beyond the USA, as America's influence steadily diminishes, China will become the dominant power in Asia, possibly having to fight a war with India for the privilege. Africans will fight among themselves as usual, while the Chinese bleed Africa dry of its natural resources. The Middle East will continue to be populated by sand niggers who want to return the world to 650 AD. Australia will devour its inhabitants and be declared no-mans-land. Europe will be colonized by niggers of all varieties who will drive whitey to extinction, all in the name of equality. South America will continue to be a verdant shithole run by drug lords.
In short, the world will continue much as it has been continuing for the past 40 or so years.

 

[Crazedking]

if biden wins, nothing since the right are cucked and if they do anything then ALT RIGHT RACIST KKK NAZI!!!!! Well get a lot of smug over the media but that will be it.

When trump wins, more riots, another investigation into election interference from trump and Russia. Another impeachment attempt. And most likely an actual assassination attempt. Ive said it in 2016. I dont know who, when or how but someone will try to assassinate trump at some point.

 

[Hypnopedosnake2]

Barb will kick the Bucket
Chris will be on the street, begging for Legos
and DSP will outlive everyone.

 

[Ozma (ZeTrannyJanny)]

You will get laid

Metokur will troon idk

 

[Syaoran Li]

It really depends on the election.

Regardless of who wins, I think the Corona lockdowns will more or less cease completely after the election is over and done with since it's not economically viable to keep it going and it's been mostly extended as a political bargaining chip and the massive spike in new infections also is tied to the riots.

If Trump wins, I expect the DNC to clean house from within. Trump will have four more years if he wins, and I think Barr will use the new DOJ designation of Antifa to go medieval on the Woke Left. We're already seeing several Antifa and BLM activists getting busted by the Feds, where the catch and release arrests of Portland and Seattle's local governments are no longer a factor and I have no doubt that at least a few Antifa punks and BLM activists are talking and ratting out their upper-ranking affiliates just to avoid doing hard time in federal prison.

Keep in mind that Trump's fighting Antifa and BLM with two major handicaps, both are more or less directly tied to the election. One is the optics of using federal troops to violently crack down on Antifa and BLM and the other are deliberately obstructive Democrat leaders on the state and city levels, who want to hamstring Trump to increase the odds of a Biden win and also not look like they're collaborating with Orange Man Bad.

If Trump can get a win, then he will likely win a lot of the fence-sitters and boost his approval ratings with a proper crackdown and the end of the lockdowns will also greatly help elevate the mood of the wider public.

In this scenario, the Woke Left will be seen as no longer useful and the corporations are far less likely to coddle with them, and this is exponentially more likely if they can't rely on the strength of the Chinese market. China might not be able to keep floating the corporate elites because of a continued trade war, the Three Gorges Dam bursting, or both.

The Three Gorges Dam will likely collapse in the early 2020's. Even if it survives 2020, the floods that have happened are catastrophic enough to China's economic stability and enough damage has been done that another intense rainy season will increase the odds of the dam finally going bye-bye for good. If 3GD goes, China is imperially fucked and the CCP won't be able to influence the United States as effectively as before.

A lot is riding on the election, and a Biden win will result in a Kamala presidency and the era of "Current Year" not only continuing but likely worsening.

A Trump win is the only thing that can break that hold, especially if Trump continues the trade war against China and amps up the crackdown on Antifa (and by extension BLM)

I have this hunch that if Trump does win, we will see "Current Year" come to an end and woke culture being seen as increasingly unfashionable and less outwardly supported by the wider establishment for the sake of pragmatism and preserving profit and power. This is a lot more likely to happen if the trade wars continue and increase in their intensity and if Trump continues the crackdowns on Antifa and acts with more intensity after the election.

If 2020 does have the silver lining in the form of a Trump win in November, I expect that 2020 will be to the 2010's what 2000 was to the 90's, the cultural zeitgeist of an era finally reaching its peak followed by sweeping changes in the coming years.

Give me all the rainbows you want, but I think this will happen IF Trump can win the election and with Kamala as Biden's VP, he's got a 60/40 chance of winning and we'll likely see those odds increase or decrease depending on the debates and other external events

 

[Maurice Caine]

It really depends on the election.

Regardless of who wins, I think the Corona lockdowns will more or less cease completely after the election is over and done with since it's not economically viable to keep it going and it's been mostly extended as a political bargaining chip and the massive spike in new infections also is tied to the riots.

If Trump wins, I expect the DNC to clean house from within. Trump will have four more years if he wins, and I think Barr will use the new DOJ designation of Antifa to go medieval on the Woke Left. We're already seeing several Antifa and BLM activists getting busted by the Feds, where the catch and release arrests of Portland and Seattle's local governments are no longer a factor and I have no doubt that at least a few Antifa punks and BLM activists are talking and ratting out their upper-ranking affiliates just to avoid doing hard time in federal prison.

Keep in mind that Trump's fighting Antifa and BLM with two major handicaps, both are more or less directly tied to the election. One is the optics of using federal troops to violently crack down on Antifa and BLM and the other are deliberately obstructive Democrat leaders on the state and city levels, who want to hamstring Trump to increase the odds of a Biden win and also not look like they're collaborating with Orange Man Bad.

If Trump can get a win, then he will likely win a lot of the fence-sitters and boost his approval ratings with a proper crackdown and the end of the lockdowns will also greatly help elevate the mood of the wider public.

In this scenario, the Woke Left will be seen as no longer useful and the corporations are far less likely to coddle with them, and this is exponentially more likely if they can't rely on the strength of the Chinese market. China might not be able to keep floating the corporate elites because of a continued trade war, the Three Gorges Dam bursting, or both.

The Three Gorges Dam will likely collapse in the early 2020's. Even if it survives 2020, the floods that have happened are catastrophic enough to China's economic stability and enough damage has been done that another intense rainy season will increase the odds of the dam finally going bye-bye for good. If 3GD goes, China is imperially fucked and the CCP won't be able to influence the United States as effectively as before.

A lot is riding on the election, and a Biden win will result in a Kamala presidency and the era of "Current Year" not only continuing but likely worsening.

A Trump win is the only thing that can break that hold, especially if Trump continues the trade war against China and amps up the crackdown on Antifa (and by extension BLM)

I have this hunch that if Trump does win, we will see "Current Year" come to an end and woke culture being seen as increasingly unfashionable and less outwardly supported by the wider establishment for the sake of pragmatism and preserving profit and power. This is a lot more likely to happen if the trade wars continue and increase in their intensity and if Trump continues the crackdowns on Antifa and acts with more intensity after the election.

If 2020 does have the silver lining in the form of a Trump win in November, I expect that 2020 will be to the 2010's what 2000 was to the 90's, the cultural zeitgeist of an era finally reaching its peak followed by sweeping changes in the coming years.

Give me all the rainbows you want, but I think this will happen IF Trump can win the election and with Kamala as his VP, he's got a 60/40 chance of winning and we'll likely see those odds increase or decrease depending on the debates and other external events

Man, just waiting for November is killing me. If there's a god somewhere, make that trump win happen. Never asked anything outta you.

 

[Hellbound Hellhound]

Mankind will return to the Moon, and we'll get some neat HD footage of astronauts walking on the lunar surface for the first time in half a century.

We'll get more unnecessary remakes of our childhood classics, but less comic book movies, due to audience fatigue. Cinema attendance will continue to decline, and the transition towards streaming services will persist, further blurring the lines between movies and television.

Deepfake technology will advance to the point where anybody can create fake footage of anybody else with ease, and it will result in countless personal scandals on social media, and perhaps some major political ones too.

China's GDP will overtake the United States, making it the world's new largest economy, although practically, not much will change. The sixth generation of Chinese leadership, due to take office in 2022, won't come to pass, as Xi Jinping's centralization of power now makes him president for life.

Queen Elizabeth II will continue to outlive everyone.

 

[Return of the Freaker]

It really depends on the election.

Regardless of who wins, I think the Corona lockdowns will more or less cease completely after the election is over and done with since it's not economically viable to keep it going and it's been mostly extended as a political bargaining chip and the massive spike in new infections also is tied to the riots.

If Trump wins, I expect the DNC to clean house from within. Trump will have four more years if he wins, and I think Barr will use the new DOJ designation of Antifa to go medieval on the Woke Left. We're already seeing several Antifa and BLM activists getting busted by the Feds, where the catch and release arrests of Portland and Seattle's local governments are no longer a factor and I have no doubt that at least a few Antifa punks and BLM activists are talking and ratting out their upper-ranking affiliates just to avoid doing hard time in federal prison.

Keep in mind that Trump's fighting Antifa and BLM with two major handicaps, both are more or less directly tied to the election. One is the optics of using federal troops to violently crack down on Antifa and BLM and the other are deliberately obstructive Democrat leaders on the state and city levels, who want to hamstring Trump to increase the odds of a Biden win and also not look like they're collaborating with Orange Man Bad.

If Trump can get a win, then he will likely win a lot of the fence-sitters and boost his approval ratings with a proper crackdown and the end of the lockdowns will also greatly help elevate the mood of the wider public.

In this scenario, the Woke Left will be seen as no longer useful and the corporations are far less likely to coddle with them, and this is exponentially more likely if they can't rely on the strength of the Chinese market. China might not be able to keep floating the corporate elites because of a continued trade war, the Three Gorges Dam bursting, or both.

The Three Gorges Dam will likely collapse in the early 2020's. Even if it survives 2020, the floods that have happened are catastrophic enough to China's economic stability and enough damage has been done that another intense rainy season will increase the odds of the dam finally going bye-bye for good. If 3GD goes, China is imperially fucked and the CCP won't be able to influence the United States as effectively as before.

A lot is riding on the election, and a Biden win will result in a Kamala presidency and the era of "Current Year" not only continuing but likely worsening.

A Trump win is the only thing that can break that hold, especially if Trump continues the trade war against China and amps up the crackdown on Antifa (and by extension BLM)

I have this hunch that if Trump does win, we will see "Current Year" come to an end and woke culture being seen as increasingly unfashionable and less outwardly supported by the wider establishment for the sake of pragmatism and preserving profit and power. This is a lot more likely to happen if the trade wars continue and increase in their intensity and if Trump continues the crackdowns on Antifa and acts with more intensity after the election.

If 2020 does have the silver lining in the form of a Trump win in November, I expect that 2020 will be to the 2010's what 2000 was to the 90's, the cultural zeitgeist of an era finally reaching its peak followed by sweeping changes in the coming years.

Give me all the rainbows you want, but I think this will happen IF Trump can win the election and with Kamala as his VP, he's got a 60/40 chance of winning and we'll likely see those odds increase or decrease depending on the debates and other external events

Going with the Three Gorges Dam, that will have severe knock-on effects to the world economy. That could go either way. Even if SocJus shit wanes, I'd be really on edge that it would drive people even further into mommy government's arms and continue to make cyberpunk real in all the worst ways. We won't really start to see the shape of "the 2020s" until after 2022 no matter what happens.

 

[Never Scored]

-We will end up with a social credit style system in the West, not run by the government, but run by social media networks similar to the Black Mirror episode "Nosedive." There will be nothing legally compelling you to participate in this system, but increasingly private services such as insurance will utilize it and an increasing number of employers will use it to vet employees, resulting in a system where you need a social media account where you behave yourself tied to your real identity to function in society.

-World governments will legislate more and more back doors into encryption and phone hardware in the interest of "Saftey." This may happen sooner than later because of Covid. The general public will buy into it and if you don't want the government tracking where you go people will look at you as a crazy conspiracy theorist.

-There will be increased interest in moving into rural areas briefly due to Covid, but following the conclusion of the Covid situation, rural areas will continue to age and die off. Young people will continue to move to the cities choosing a bigger selection of services and entertainment over the freedom afforded by a lower population density. This will put increased demand on housing and people will have smaller and smaller living spaces, property ownership will be out of reach for your average person and the birth rate will continue to decline.

-Newfoundland will go insolvent as a result of an increasingly unmanageable debt load. The Canadian government will bail it out, but Newfoundland will be relegated to territory status, as the biggest difference between a province and a territory is the federal government can put a cap on how high a territory's deficit can be.

-In the immediate future we'll see inflation pick up as a result of the money being printed. I don't think we're going to have run away inflation, but I think we'll go over 5%.

China's GDP will overtake the United States, making it the world's new largest economy, although practically, not much will change. The sixth generation of Chinese leadership, due to take office in 2022, won't come to pass, as Xi Jinping's centralization of power now makes him president for life.

I think this will happen as well, and gradually China will move from a manufacturing to a service economy like the west and more manufacturing will either go to India or Africa.

 

[Syaoran Li]

China's GDP will overtake the United States, making it the world's new largest economy, although practically, not much will change. The sixth generation of Chinese leadership, due to take office in 2022, won't come to pass, as Xi Jinping's centralization of power now makes him president for life.

Queen Elizabeth II will continue to outlive everyone.

Rated you disagree for this part right here. China's seemingly inevitable ascent has been severely set back by the one-two punch of COVID-19 and the current floods.

If Trump wins a second term, there will no doubt be a continuation and escalation of the trade war and the CCP will get more of the blame for the pandemic in the first place. Since the United States is pulling out of the WHO, this will be a bit easier to pull off and if Trump can pull off a win (and nothing is guaranteed at this point, even with a weak Biden and a hated Kamala) then the withdrawal from the WHO will be solidified and the United States will likely focus more on trying to stop and contain China as much as possible.

This trade war will also have the effect of stopping or at least severely slowing down China's big trend of economic growth, and is more likely to stymie Chinese influence on Big Tech and the big media corporations like Disney and Warner. That's part of why I think the CCP is very likely trying to help Antifa and BLM via their influence over key major corporations in Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and Hollywood. They need Trump to lose, since the GOP will likely revert back to the old mantra of spineless neocons and Christian traditionalism if Trump is a one-term fluke and the DNC are close bedfellows with these corporate bigwigs who are in league with the CCP.

That's even without the Three Gorges Dam bursting.

If the Three Gorges Dam bursts, it would not matter if Biden/Kamala manage to defeat Trump in November since the CCP will be imperially fucked and more or less lose control of the majority of mainland China either way. The Chinese economy would be functionally non-existent at that point while the global economy would take another massive hit. A Trump win and continuation of the trade war and increased crackdowns on Antifa in addition to the 3GD collapsing would be merely a bonus addition of insult to injury at that point.

Three Gorges Dam collapsing is the kind of thing that would hurt us all economically in the short term (and possibly medium term) but it's also the kind of drastic event that could be the radical chemo treatment that kills the cancer of the CCP and the corporatist bigwigs that collude with them.

Spoiler: Tangential side-sperging

That's part of why I hate gimmick posters like @Made In China who LARP as ChiCom sycophants, since the CCP is likely peddling black pills on various sites that aren't fully in lockstep for the Woke Left and their neoliberal corporate puppet masters. I mean, the 50 Cent Gang are known to be a thing, and they'll gladly deal black pills by the kilo if it means enforcing the will and aiding the ambitions of the ChiCom bastards in Beijing,

They are pushing for demoralization and the traditionalists and whiny blackpill doomer faggots like @DumbDude42 and @Gnostic American are all too happy to spread this demoralization and potentially depress voter turnout and make the job of snuffing out potential dissent counter-movements all the more easy for the CCP, the DNC/Corporate bigwigs and their lackeys, both of the willing collaborators (SPLC, ADL) and the useful idiot cultist pawns railing against some kind of vague and ill-defined notion of capitalism, "white privilege", "colonialism", and "patriarchy" (BLM, DSA, Antifa, most of the Woke Left in general)

TL;DR - Nothing is assured at any point anymore. The game's changed massively even within the span of a single year. Gimme all the rainbow stickers and say this is a cope all you want, but this kind of unpredictability is a thing that cuts both ways.

 

[Dom Cruise]

It really depends on the election.

Regardless of who wins, I think the Corona lockdowns will more or less cease completely after the election is over and done with since it's not economically viable to keep it going and it's been mostly extended as a political bargaining chip and the massive spike in new infections also is tied to the riots.

If Trump wins, I expect the DNC to clean house from within. Trump will have four more years if he wins, and I think Barr will use the new DOJ designation of Antifa to go medieval on the Woke Left. We're already seeing several Antifa and BLM activists getting busted by the Feds, where the catch and release arrests of Portland and Seattle's local governments are no longer a factor and I have no doubt that at least a few Antifa punks and BLM activists are talking and ratting out their upper-ranking affiliates just to avoid doing hard time in federal prison.

Keep in mind that Trump's fighting Antifa and BLM with two major handicaps, both are more or less directly tied to the election. One is the optics of using federal troops to violently crack down on Antifa and BLM and the other are deliberately obstructive Democrat leaders on the state and city levels, who want to hamstring Trump to increase the odds of a Biden win and also not look like they're collaborating with Orange Man Bad.

If Trump can get a win, then he will likely win a lot of the fence-sitters and boost his approval ratings with a proper crackdown and the end of the lockdowns will also greatly help elevate the mood of the wider public.

In this scenario, the Woke Left will be seen as no longer useful and the corporations are far less likely to coddle with them, and this is exponentially more likely if they can't rely on the strength of the Chinese market. China might not be able to keep floating the corporate elites because of a continued trade war, the Three Gorges Dam bursting, or both.

The Three Gorges Dam will likely collapse in the early 2020's. Even if it survives 2020, the floods that have happened are catastrophic enough to China's economic stability and enough damage has been done that another intense rainy season will increase the odds of the dam finally going bye-bye for good. If 3GD goes, China is imperially fucked and the CCP won't be able to influence the United States as effectively as before.

A lot is riding on the election, and a Biden win will result in a Kamala presidency and the era of "Current Year" not only continuing but likely worsening.

A Trump win is the only thing that can break that hold, especially if Trump continues the trade war against China and amps up the crackdown on Antifa (and by extension BLM)

I have this hunch that if Trump does win, we will see "Current Year" come to an end and woke culture being seen as increasingly unfashionable and less outwardly supported by the wider establishment for the sake of pragmatism and preserving profit and power. This is a lot more likely to happen if the trade wars continue and increase in their intensity and if Trump continues the crackdowns on Antifa and acts with more intensity after the election.

If 2020 does have the silver lining in the form of a Trump win in November, I expect that 2020 will be to the 2010's what 2000 was to the 90's, the cultural zeitgeist of an era finally reaching its peak followed by sweeping changes in the coming years.

Give me all the rainbows you want, but I think this will happen IF Trump can win the election and with Kamala as Biden's VP, he's got a 60/40 chance of winning and we'll likely see those odds increase or decrease depending on the debates and other external events

The thing is even if woke culture does go away nothing’s going to be quite the same for me, because I’ve seen how hostile people can get and the question on my mind is what if it happens again? I can easily see people freaking the fuck out about race again in a few decades, it seems like it might be a cyclical thing in American culture.

But if we could at least get a long break from it, that would be great.

 

[Hellbound Hellhound]

Rated you disagree for this part right here. China's seemingly inevitable ascent has been severely set back by the one-two punch of COVID-19 and the current floods.

If Trump wins a second term, there will no doubt be a continuation and escalation of the trade war and the CCP will get more of the blame for the pandemic in the first place. Since the United States is pulling out of the WHO, this will be a bit easier to pull off and if Trump can pull off a win (and nothing is guaranteed at this point, even with a weak Biden and a hated Kamala) then the withdrawal from the WHO will be solidified and the United States will likely focus more on trying to stop and contain China as much as possible.

This trade war will also have the effect of stopping or at least severely slowing down China's big trend of economic growth, and is more likely to stymie Chinese influence on Big Tech and the big media corporations like Disney and Warner. That's part of why I think the CCP is very likely trying to help Antifa and BLM via their influence over key major corporations in Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and Hollywood. They need Trump to lose, since the GOP will likely revert back to the old mantra of spineless neocons and Christian traditionalism if Trump is a one-term fluke and the DNC are close bedfellows with these corporate bigwigs who are in league with the CCP.

That's even without the Three Gorges Dam bursting.

If the Three Gorges Dam bursts, it would not matter if Biden/Kamala manage to defeat Trump in November since the CCP will be imperially fucked and more or less lose control of the majority of mainland China either way. The Chinese economy would be functionally non-existent at that point while the global economy would take another massive hit. A Trump win and continuation of the trade war and increased crackdowns on Antifa in addition to the 3GD collapsing would be merely a bonus addition of insult to injury at that point.

Three Gorges Dam collapsing is the kind of thing that would hurt us all economically in the short term (and possibly medium term) but it's also the kind of drastic event that could be the radical chemo treatment that kills the cancer of the CCP and the corporatist bigwigs that collude with them.

Spoiler: Tangential side-sperging

That's part of why I hate gimmick posters like @Made In China who LARP as ChiCom sycophants, since the CCP is likely peddling black pills on various sites that aren't fully in lockstep for the Woke Left and their neoliberal corporate puppet masters. I mean, the 50 Cent Gang are known to be a thing, and they'll gladly deal black pills by the kilo if it means enforcing the will and aiding the ambitions of the ChiCom bastards in Beijing,

They are pushing for demoralization and the traditionalists and whiny blackpill doomer faggots like @DumbDude42 and @Gnostic American are all too happy to spread this demoralization and potentially depress voter turnout and make the job of snuffing out potential dissent counter-movements all the more easy for the CCP, the DNC/Corporate bigwigs and their lackeys, both of the willing collaborators (SPLC, ADL) and the useful idiot cultist pawns railing against some kind of vague and ill-defined notion of capitalism, "white privilege", "colonialism", and "patriarchy" (BLM, DSA, Antifa, most of the Woke Left in general)

TL;DR - Nothing is assured at any point anymore. The game's changed massively even within the span of a single year. Gimme all the rainbow stickers and say this is a cope all you want, but this kind of unpredictability is a thing that cuts both ways.

China's economic growth has actually largely bounced back from COVID-19 this quarter.

I haven't looked into the flooding situation too closely, but so far I've not seen any evidence that it's having a devastating effect on the trajectory of China's economy. A collapse of the Three Gorges Dam would be devastating, but that's a long shot if you ask me, and I'm not willing to accept one dodgy looking satellite image and a handful of YouTube videos as evidence.

The biggest issues facing China's economic growth over the next decade are likely going to be the country's rapidly aging population, and the way that the changing economic circumstances of the Chinese people is going to put pressure on China to increasingly reorientate it's economy towards services and consumption. I sense that there will probably be political ramifications to this too, but it's not clear to me what yet.

I don't think the trade war will have any meaningful effect on the question of whether or not China will overtake the US this decade. It will probably just lower the threshold that China will need to cross.