The movement will end when people realize, in the long run, that they haven't gotten what they wanted: a rainbow version of the white picket fence house.
Another reason troonism has an expiration date is the way it throws open its arms to welcome every pervert, nonce and predator who feels like putting on a dress. Never before has a movement so eagerly adopted the scum of society as its heroes.
The gay movement had people like Foucault, Harry Hay, Allen Ginsburg and other pedos, but their acts were swept under the rug. They practiced "respectability politics," as it were. The trans movement has no concept of respectability whatsoever. When they make Alok "your kids aren't as straight and narrow as you think" Vaid-Menon a figurehead, they're sending a loud and clear message to every creep who's used to keeping his fantasies to himself, telling them that he's welcome in their movement.
The troon depravity we've seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. Before it's over we'll see things that make Jonathan Yaniv look tame. And the trans community is incapable of saying no, you don't belong with us. They just keep inviting them in. Even the dullest of NPCs will eventually see the pattern of all the worst sexual predators flying the trans flag.
Yeah, it normally doesn't in actually convincing people.
It will matter when normal people start seeing their friends and family troon out, then steadily degrade mentally and physically until they potentially commit suicide, detransition, or become a crazy retard you don't want to associate with.
When they start having these mental cases flip out on them over stupid shit and demanding things from just your average person, more and more people just see the bad shit that follows in its wake.
Most people wont be convinced from a bunch of numbers and statistics, they'll be convinced when it starts to affect their lives and they feel it.