When do you think we’ll get into another economic depression? -

JP's_Canadian_Cider

kiwifarms.net
Probably never unless something really catastrophic happens. Our means of production are so high due to technological advances that it would take a world war or massive epidemic to reduce real production enough to warrant comparison to the great depression. While both Brexit and Trumps trade wars will probably just be minor speed bumps, they were about as bad as economical policy goes. It is text book how not to encourage growth, but still we made it out alive. The marked is insanely resilient because production capacity is just so high and versatile.

So, an economical depression is pretty unlikely. A financial crisis on the other hand is always possible as people are morons who vote in morons who make the peoples moronic ideas into policy. If we are hit by some sort of financial crisis and bootstrap-policy at the same time, we could end up in a scenario were production capacity (mainly due to people opting out of labour marked and lack of real investment capital) is reduced for moral reasons. Stuff like "right to work", privatization and fair-competition legislature can be detrimental towards real capital investment. While this threat seems to not be lost on neither the EU nor the yanks, as they have huge state R&D-funding schemes. Hopefully that doesn't change too much.

And, just to clarify something about Brexit and TrumpTrade. While you might argue that it is good in the long run, it is nevertheless bad in the short run. Disrupting trade embargoes, tariffs and similar political movements is (almost) never a good thing for real production. In the same way as a surgery increases your risk for death or chemotherapy is literally betting on your body to die slower than the cancer. The point being that even as disastrous as Brexit and the trade wars were, life went on as normal for most people.
 
  • Dumb
Reactions: ???

Stormy Daniel's Lawyer

So it goes.
kiwifarms.net
If the factories remain closed in China then at some point in the near future there's gonna be a noticeable disruption in the global supply chain. How long and what sectors are still undetermined. If the virus takes hold here and panic sets in, then it's gonna hurt everybody, and thus, the the economy takes a brutal kick to the balls.

Not So Bold Prediction:

I predict the MSM will attempt gin up the panic just to hurt Trump..Today, his administration puts the brakes on anyone talking about the Corona Virus to the media without prior approval from the White House, but that place leaks more than the Titanic..
 

???

International man (?) of mystery
kiwifarms.net
One thing I've always found interesting is tracking betting markets. ElectionBettingOdds is tracking the current odds of having a recession this year. They have it marked at just over 84% chance of no recession this year. They track the bets on BetFair and PredictIt.
The "economy" means nothing. It's woo woo bullshit, the modern equivalent of interpreting duck entrails. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Goldman-Sachs will say and do anything to benefit Goldman-Sachs. Relying on their feedback RE economic indicators is like asking your 8 year old if she wants ice cream and soda for dinner.
 

FlappyBat

soap, ballot, jury, ammo
kiwifarms.net
The "economy" means nothing. It's woo woo bullshit, the modern equivalent of interpreting duck entrails. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Goldman-Sachs will say and do anything to benefit Goldman-Sachs. Relying on their feedback RE economic indicators is like asking your 8 year old if she wants ice cream and soda for dinner.

Where are you getting Goldman-Sachs economic indicators from in my post? A recession is defined by betfair as

For the purposes of this market a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth based on rates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
And the website I linked tracks people betting on if that happens or not. Maybe groups of people can't predict better than random, But I dont think that has shown to be true.
 
Last edited:

JP's_Canadian_Cider

kiwifarms.net
The "economy" means nothing. It's woo woo bullshit, the modern equivalent of interpreting duck entrails. Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Goldman-Sachs will say and do anything to benefit Goldman-Sachs. Relying on their feedback RE economic indicators is like asking your 8 year old if she wants ice cream and soda for dinner.
You conflate finance marked with the real economy. It's a common mistake and the reason why many successful businessmen struggle to comprehend economy. They are geared towards looking for economical indicators in the world of finance, while forgetting that it's the underlining production that really matters.

Because the finance marked is a lot easier to quantify and track we use it to give us an idea of how the real economy is going. At the same time, finance is just words on paper. Its affect on the real economy is indirect. So often you are trying to understand the real economy by measuring a variable that might just affect the real economy by psychologically affecting actors who affect both the variable and the result. It is very messy to say the least. Nevertheless, people who know how to read reports know how to track it. That's why everyone who is not shit at economy will tell you that we have growth and probably will have it forever. With the exception of overpopulation or depletion of natural resources.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chive Turkey

???

International man (?) of mystery
kiwifarms.net
What does "growth" of a few things have to do with the health of a nation and it's people compared to the changes in the cost of goods and services, most of which aren't tracked by inflation indicators?

Also do you seriously think that infinite growth and expansion is good? We live in a universe defined by a set of laws, one of which is that infinite growth is impossible and trying it always leads to failure. For fucks sake the one thing which does grow forever is cancer, how can you not see this?

Here's another example: if a market is efficient, then by definition it lacks redundancies. How do you deal with supply chain breakdowns? With local production (and therefore simpler and more transparent chains) and redundancy.

You're optimizing our economy for a set of artificial, arguably politically unnatural, in every sense (politically, economically, socially, ...) unsustainable circumstances, none of which benefit more than 90% of Americans by any definition of American. With that in mind, why should anyone listen to your advice or even value your input, given that it's assumptions are predicated on factors which benefit groups of people who almost to a man have dual citizenship somewhere else or could easily get it should your precious economy shit the bed?
 

MilkMage

Oh what a Sperg I am. Oh what a Sperg I am.
kiwifarms.net
Everything's gone black and white and I can faintly hear swing music in the distance.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Virgo

Webby's Boyfriend

in love with a fictional 11 year old toon duck
kiwifarms.net
Soon. If history repeats itself, Covid-19 is the new Spanish flu. Stocks collapsing and businesses closing is the start of the new Great Depression. Then following will be World War 3.

l_a_b_o_r_w_a_v_e__marina_ginesta_by_sad_scarecrow_dc98jyp-fullview.jpgcrushing_weight_by_labourwave_dboasgk-fullview.jpg
 
  • Optimistic
Reactions: Alto
Tags
None