Which Southern state will be the first to shift blue? Which is the least likely to do so? -

[bruhidfk12345]

So, this is kind of an interesting topic to me. With so many people fleeing south because of insane costs of living on the coasts, along with an increasing amount of people getting college degrees (typically, people with degrees vote blue), the South probably isn’t going to be a solid red block for that much longer. Which state do you think will shift blue first?

I know a lot of people favor Texas, mainly because of the Californian hordes, and Latinos, but idk. It seems like there’s a pretty strong conservative streak there that isn’t going to be so easily shoved aside. If I had to guess which state would go blue first, I’m saying Georgia. They honestly seem like they’re halfway there anyway.

As for the state that’s least likely to shift blue, if you consider Oklahoma southern, then I would say them. There wasn’t a single blue county in the 2016 election iirc. If you don’t consider Oklahoma southern, Tennessee, probably.

 

[Draza]

Arizona. Considering the increase in Latino/Californian immigrants over recent years.

 

[Slappy McGherkin]

My vote is Florida. As said, people flee from NY, NJ, etc., and head south to escape repressive taxation and one stupid law over another being passed.

The problem is, they don't check their old voting habits at the state border and soon turn their new-found paradise into the shithole they were fleeing. Texas is seeing some of the same. Austin is now about as liberal as any coast city. I don't think you'll see the "blue turn" in many of the old stalwart Southern states - Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, etc. They aren't as desirable a location to college-ed elitists.

 

[Slappy McGherkin]

Arizona. Considering the increase in Latino/Californian immigrants over recent years.

Living this, I agree. It's like two separate states between very liberal, open borders Tucson and much more conservative Phoenix. I'd put us as "purple" at the moment.

 

[JM 590]

If this CGP Grey video about Texas is true, I could see Texas splitting up into two states before it turns blue.

(edit: the video talks about Texas reserving the right to split up into up to five different states with no approval from Congress, skip to 2:03)

 

[dunbrine47]

Florida especially when so called right wingers help make it blue.

 

[Duncan Hills Coffee]

I have a feeling Georgia might become one soon, given that the state is slowly becoming more urbanized and is seeing a lot more influence from Hollywood. The Stacy Abrams shit immediately springs to mind; Hollywood was this close from using the fact that she didn't get elected as a political hammer to bludgeon the state for wrongthink and pull out of filming 90% of their movies there. I have a feeling this will be a recurring issue.

 

[bruhidfk12345]

See, I don’t know about Alabama and Mississippi never turning blue. They have a lot of minorities, and with a decreasing white population, I could see them making the shift to blue, even without college grads and people escaping the coastal hellholes.

 

[Ghost of Wesley Willis]

Gonna have to say either Georgia or Florida will first. Atlanta and Miami both attract liberals and have huge influences on the states when election time comes.

 

[Richardo Retardo]

I have a feeling Georgia might become one soon, given that the state is slowly becoming more urbanized and is seeing a lot more influence from Hollywood. The Stacy Abrams shit immediately springs to mind; Hollywood was this close from using the fact that she didn't get elected as a political hammer to bludgeon the state for wrongthink and pull out of filming 90% of their movies there. I have a feeling this will be a recurring issue.

Holy fuck! I just realized that Georgia is nearly 40% non-White. RIP to the idea of them being Red by the end of the next decade.

Oklahoma is the least likely to turn Blue imo.

 

[Clockwork_PurBle]

Most likely? Texas. Lots of illegals and lots of lefty types move to Houston and Dallas.

Least likely? Definitely Alabama and Mississippi.

Alabama has the city Birmingham, our largest, which always goes blue because ghetto, but overall the state is red.

 

[The Reaper]

I’d have to throw my hat in with Texas being the first one. The last elections with Beto showed pumping thousands of dollars into the political climate of Texas can get the wheels shifting. I say it’ll be closer to 2030 though, so another one may flip first.

 

[AF 802]

Blue man bad.

 

[JM 590]

Holy fuck! I just realized that Georgia is nearly 40% non-White. RIP to the idea of them being Red by the end of the next decade.

Oklahoma is the least likely to turn Blue imo.

A lot of the deep south is full of happy conservative black people. If non-whites == blue voters, they would have been blue all along.

Though Atlanta being the closest thing we have to Hollywood Pt. 2 is what would make that state blue. Adult Swim and Tyler Perry Studios are headquartered down there, for what it's worth.

 

[Mariposa Electrique]

Most likely? Texas. Lots of illegals and lots of lefty types move to Houston and Dallas.

How terrible.
It's like roaches moving to a new house after they've destroyed the old one. Too bad, the red districts still outnumber the blue ones by a lot.
Here's the map of the 2016 election, and it stands to reason why illegals must be stopped everywhere across the globe.

 

[Jan_Hus]

Hell it wasn't that long ago that the Deep South used to be solidly, firmly Democrat. The South being Republican is actually a very, very new concept. The politics of a region are anything but fixed, and they'll shift in the future.

 

[bruhidfk12345]

I understand why so many people think Texas is going to shift in the near future, based off demographics , yet at the same time, I kind of also don’t see it?

At the most, I feel like it’ll go purple. That state is still very, very conservative in a lot of places, and I can’t see them just waving the white flag of defeat. Something will happen before it goes full blue imo.

 

[Richardo Retardo]

A lot of the deep south is full of happy conservative black people.

I'm sure that there are individuals and even some regions of the south that would testify to that but on a macro scale it's impossible to deny that Non-White = Blue, especially when it comes to the Black community who on average vote around 90% Democrat regardless of the candidate or policy; in many cases even socially conservative Black people who disagree the party on many issues vote Democrat, due to the extreme (sometimes violent) social stigma against voting Republican in many Black communities.

 

[Syaoran Li]

As a Southerner myself, here's my take on the matter. I'm defining the "South" as the former Confederate states and territories (Virginia, Tennessee, The Carolinas, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and Arizona), plus Kentucky.

I deliberately left out West Virginia in this analysis, because it was a major swing state for the longest time before becoming a Republican stronghold during the Obama and Trump years. Also, West Virginia is kind of a geographic and cultural anomaly in which region it belongs to. West Virginia was a loyal Union stronghold during the Civil War (which is how it achieved statehood) and is more "Appalachian" than generic "Southern".

Depending on who you ask, West Virginia is either the northernmost Southern state or the southernmost Northern state.

Of the states that make up the Old South, I'd say either Virginia or Florida will turn solid blue.

Both are already major swing states now but were former ironclad red states.

Virginia in particular is noteworthy for being one of the only Southern states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016 and is also trying to distance itself from being a "Southern" state and trying to re-identify as a "Mid-Atlantic" state. As a Virginian (I know, TMI) I have been witnessing the transformation of the political landscape in my state. When I was a kid, Virginia was solidly Republican, and by the time I graduated high school, it was a wild card swing state.

This "Mid-Atlantic" swing state mentality is especially true of the Northern Virginia suburbs near Washington DC, as well as Richmond, Charlottesville, and the coastal Tidewater cities (Norfolk, Newport News, Virginia Beach, etc.), although you even see similar sentiments in the centrist areas like Roanoke and the New River Valley college towns.

Granted, there are still some staunchly conservative areas of Virginia such as the Coalfields (the counties of Wise, Dickenson, Russell, Buchanan, and Tazewell), the Virginia side of the Tri-Cities (Abingdon, Gate City, etc.) and especially Lynchburg, home of Jerry Falwell and Liberty University.

There are also a few areas of Virginia that are the most "swing state" of all with an overall centrist political climate. The Roanoke Valley area is probably the most noticeable of these areas, although from what I have observed the Staunton/Waynesboro is fairly centrist as well.

Give it ten years and Virginia will be a blue state with Lynchburg as the only major Republican stronghold (sort of an inverse of Texas, a solidly red state with Austin as a left-wing stronghold)

Texas is kind of iffy, because while Austin is practically the Portland of the South and you have a very high concentration of Latinos, I get the feeling that most of the Latinos who would actively and regularly vote are more in line with conservative or centrist platforms, especially since Texas doesn't have Sanctuary Cities and unlike California, has strict voter ID laws making it harder for undocumented immigrants to vote (notably, this tactic has helped the Democrats control rural California).

Most Latinos tend to be devout Catholics and are ideologically more in line with the GOP compared to the liberal Democrats, especially the newer "Justice Democrats", but largely vote Democrat due to fear-mongering tactics from both parties regarding immigration. Tellingly, a lot of legal immigrants and third-generation and fourth-generation Latino Americans don't like illegals, the sentiment is stronger outside of the major coastal cities.

If it weren't for the uproar regarding ICE and Trump's wall, I'd say most of the Latinos in Texas that can legally vote, would probably go Republican, especially older Latinos (Boomers and Gen X'ers) and they're more likely to vote on a consistent basis anyway, especially in state and local elections.

Tennessee and Georgia do have a chance of going blue, but not before Virginia and Florida. Once those two states go full blue, then I could definitely see Tennessee and Georgia becoming major swing states similar to how Florida and Virginia are now.

North Carolina and Kentucky will probably remain Republican, although I could see specific cities and large towns becoming more "purple"

I don't know enough about Arkansas or Arizona to comment, in all honesty.

The least likely candidates to go blue would be Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina

 

[Gangster Talk]

Hell it wasn't that long ago that the Deep South used to be solidly, firmly Democrat. The South being Republican is actually a very, very new concept. The politics of a region are anything but fixed, and they'll shift in the future.

This isn't really a fair comparison and is one of my most hated idiot history gotchas (not that's that what you were doing) because ideologically the Democrat party of the 19th century was vastly different to how it is today. It wasn't that moods changed, it was that the labels changed.

That said, Tennessee is my bet. A shitload of money is currently going into development there, and it's actively being marketed to west coast yuppies due to a fledgling tech scene and completely manufactured naturalist/environmentalist culture. Mississippi is probably the most rigid, nobody wants to touch Mississippi.