It's Shroedinger's Stats. We can't tell which is the accurate model until... after the fact.I wish I'd gone ahead and taken statistics as an elective in college. I keep reading reports saying that the infection/mortality rates are overpredictions and others keeping with the exponential growth/future peak predictions and I can't tell which are more legitimate.
The main thing we're seeing now is that a lot of predictions were wildly off. Its death rate in the UK is worse than swineflu, but not as horrific as expected, same with the infection rate. We've moved from months for the peak to the peak being likely within a couple of weeks.
There's a lot of other factors but by now we should be seeing scores of deaths a day and we're... well. Not quite.
"Yesterdays" stats, while incomplete, showed a rise of 41. With today's "complete" deaths topping out at a rise of 115. I've tracked a few jumps up and down now and it feels like we've been averaging about 50-70 or so for a while. There's no telling how many of those are "replacement deaths" i.e the cause of death has been replaced and a lot of these folks were likely to die at some point this year.
There's even the remote and weird possibility that we'll wind up with less deaths overall for the year due to the lessened traffic, violent crimes, accidental deaths etc all this lockdown and reduction of unecessary travel etc.
Our current "doubling of deaths" is every 4 days, but we've also only had 3 days of lockdown.