Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread -

Which country(ies) will fare the worst due to the WuFlu?


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Ponderous Pillock

Welcome to Triple T, Tards, Troons and Trolls!
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I wish I'd gone ahead and taken statistics as an elective in college. I keep reading reports saying that the infection/mortality rates are overpredictions and others keeping with the exponential growth/future peak predictions and I can't tell which are more legitimate.
It's Shroedinger's Stats. We can't tell which is the accurate model until... after the fact.

The main thing we're seeing now is that a lot of predictions were wildly off. Its death rate in the UK is worse than swineflu, but not as horrific as expected, same with the infection rate. We've moved from months for the peak to the peak being likely within a couple of weeks.

There's a lot of other factors but by now we should be seeing scores of deaths a day and we're... well. Not quite.

"Yesterdays" stats, while incomplete, showed a rise of 41. With today's "complete" deaths topping out at a rise of 115. I've tracked a few jumps up and down now and it feels like we've been averaging about 50-70 or so for a while. There's no telling how many of those are "replacement deaths" i.e the cause of death has been replaced and a lot of these folks were likely to die at some point this year.

There's even the remote and weird possibility that we'll wind up with less deaths overall for the year due to the lessened traffic, violent crimes, accidental deaths etc all this lockdown and reduction of unecessary travel etc.

Our current "doubling of deaths" is every 4 days, but we've also only had 3 days of lockdown.
 

Radical Cadre

kiwifarms.net
View attachment 1203971

Why are we supposed to "trust the experts" again, exactly? Wasn't this the same guy who was refusing to release the source code for his projection model when people started to question it? I remember reading that somewhere but for the life of me I can't remember where that was, now.
This is making the rounds today with a lot of conservatives and Republicans that I know. On the one hand I agree that the economy needs to get back up and running ASAP, I also feel like being overprepared is in no way a bad thing. In the case of the United States, the 15 day plan is still a good idea and is coming to its conclusion soon enough. Like the President said, we'll choose which direction we want to go after the initial plan has ended.
 

2020Suicide

Homecoming King
kiwifarms.net
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So much for killing off the old, decrepit and poor ...
for those that can't read LA-Speak, the stats clearly read that the rich areas of LA are getting tested and confirmed at a much higher rate than the poor areas. and the middle class aren't doing as badly as one would think, especially with how many asians there are in certain areas
 

CDWLTY

kiwifarms.net
Are we all in agreement that China is faking the numbers? I said that to my dad today and he called me racist.
You disgust me, bigot. How dare you question the people who are keeping an entire populace under their boots with brutal, authoritarian retribution if they step out of line, especially one from an eastern society with so much focus on outward perceptions!
 

Kill all whales

boy
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net

So racist of them for doing this. It's not because you haven't truly curtailed the spread of coronavirus in your country, but because of those dang, dirty foreigners.
irony at it's finest.
 

Non-Expert!

Check your immunoprivelege.
kiwifarms.net
for those that can't read LA-Speak, the stats clearly read that the rich areas of LA are getting tested and confirmed at a much higher rate than the poor areas. and the middle class aren't doing as badly as one would think, especially with how many asians there are in certain areas
Untrue. There are testing places all over the county. You can't get tested unless you are showing serious symptoms.

It's Los Angeles, not like anything of value is being lost regardless.
Carry on, carry on ....
 

afternoon_tea

thank you Dr. Purr, very cool
kiwifarms.net
Are we all in agreement that China is faking the numbers? I said that to my dad today and he called me racist.
There is just no way those numbers are close to accurate based on what we've seen in other countries. The first patient they identified was probably infected in November (and there may be even earlier cases) and China has a massive population and the virus is very contagious, it defies logic that the death toll was that low. Plus the tried to suppress information about it early on so it was spreading unchecked.

People are either lying to themselves or they haven't dug deep enough into it if they believe China's numbers.
 

Otterly

Primark Primarch
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I wish I'd gone ahead and taken statistics as an elective in college. I keep reading reports saying that the infection/mortality rates are overpredictions and others keeping with the exponential growth/future peak predictions and I can't tell which are more legitimate.
The thing with all models is garbage in garbage oit. We know very little about this virus, we haven’t tested who had and had it on a wide enough scale to know how it’s spreading. All the models - all of them, are guesses.
Hardest hit age ranges are 18-40 and 40-65. I am not surprised because in this country there are a lot of unhealthy very obese people, and if you live past 65, the curve is in your favor for living a lot longer.
It’s because of the initial infection demographic l think. In the uk it’s middle class people jetting off for ski breaks, and people who move about and are connected- prince wotsit of Monaco May have infected Prince Charles. It’s spread initially by people who travel, and that is not the poor. When it gets to the poor, or society at large, you’ll see a more accurate spread of ages I think.
 

Coolio55

DON'T CALL LUIGI AT 3AM!! *OMG HE RICKROLLED ME*
kiwifarms.net
Pots and pans being banged outside right now. So we're copying Spain now apparently. Buncha sheep do whatever SocMedia tells them. <Grump>
Fucking odd. I just had a bunch of moron neighbours doing that too. They had red light in their garden and smoke. I assumed some yobs had stolen a car and were now burning it.
 

XYZpdq

fbi most wanted sskealeaton
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
People are either lying to themselves or they haven't dug deep enough into it if they believe China's numbers.
Yeah I've even tried explaining how even China's BAD numbers were questionable.
when Party Boss says "we need to hear things are good" then you make sure they're good, when they say "we need to hear things are bad" then you bet your ass you report that people are squirting their brains out their ears or whatever
 
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