Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread - Got too big

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Jamila

hopefully tomorrow is a day 🤞🤞🤞
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From March 1st to July 25th, in the U.S.A, there have been 576 pediatric cases for the Wu Flu that were reported to the COVID-NET. The hospitalization rate for children younger than 18 was 8 per 100,000 (0.008%). 69 of these children were admitted to an ICU, 12 of them required ventilation, and one died. For comparison, the hospitalization rate per 100,000 for adults is 164.5, or 0.1645%.

Yes, they are significantly more likely to have quite a few other things happen to them compared to their risk of dying from the Kung Flu. Children are so low-risk when it comes to this situation that it's almost laughable. I mean that's great news, but it's hilarious just how virtually impervious they are to the whole ordeal.
And the narrative shifted from "You're going to kill grandma!" to "You're going to kill children!" after the powers that be did virtually nothing to protect the elderly, the most at risk of complications and death, and even went as far as to put them at the fucking highest risk by stuffing infected people in with them. But we better keep schools closed because kids might get it? Okay.
 

Fanatical Pragmatist

Bomber Harris Do It Again!
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USA with all its chaos seems to have a confirmed case rate of around 2% and a fatality rate within that of around 3%. They don't make it easy to check but almost certainly those are the "going a year early" ones for the most part. UK's infection rate is less than 1% and has a fatality rate far higher than the USAs (as a percentage of cases) at 15%. That suggests to me that the USA is detecting a Hell of a lot more cases than the UK which has big implications for the infection rate - i.e. the UKs is probably a lot closer to the USA's than is reported.
Here's a good meta-analysis of peer-reviewed literature about COVID's infection lethality rate. The paper itself is currently under peer-review process, but the studies its analyzing have already passed IIRC.
(Archive)

Median global IFR from all 32 studies is 0.24%, median local IFR is 0.10% in areas that aren't epicenters, median IFR for those of us under 70y 0.05%

Are Third World nations being wiped off the map by plague? With their far more impoverished health care systems you would expect that if Covid-19 is the calamity it's made out to be.
See the thing is with the so-called "Third World", is that people are more likely to die from serious shit.
Basically COVID has a hard time killing off people in a country where Typhoid, Dengue and Whooping Cough have already murked all the vulnerable.

The so-called "First World" is full of people who would be dead if not for the excess of modern comfort and the mass availability of medical equipment capable of keeping them chugging along.

From March 1st to July 25th, in the U.S.A, there have been 576 pediatric cases for the Wu Flu that were reported to the COVID-NET. The hospitalization rate for children younger than 18 was 8 per 100,000 (0.008%). 69 of these children were admitted to an ICU, 12 of them required ventilation, and one died. For comparison, the hospitalization rate per 100,000 for adults is 164.5, or 0.1645%.

Yes, they are significantly more likely to have quite a few other things happen to them compared to their risk of dying from the Kung Flu. Children are so low-risk when it comes to this situation that it's almost laughable. I mean that's great news, but it's hilarious just how virtually impervious they are to the whole ordeal.

We had a boy in the Savannah area suffer a seizure and drown in the shower (bath???), supposedly due to COVID-19.
Now Facebook and local news is already up in arms about how THIS WILL BE YOUR KID!!!


You can throw statistics in their face all day, but they will always fall back to the "just one death is too many!" argument.
 

Fanatical Pragmatist

Bomber Harris Do It Again!
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(Archive)

More details released on 7-year-old Georgia boy’s coronavirus death

LOCAL NEWS| 15 hours ago
By Tyler Estep, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

An initial investigation suggests that the 7-year-old Savannah boy listed as the youngest Georgian to die from coronavirus had a fever-fueled seizure while in the bathtub and drowned, a local official told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Chatham County Coroner Bill Wessinger confirmed previous reports from Savannah media regarding the boy’s death, which was included in the state’s daily coronavirus report on Thursday. The boy, whose identity has not been released, actually died about two weeks before that, Wessinger said.

There are often delays in confirming and reporting COVID-19 deaths to the state Department of Health.

Wessinger cautioned that the full results of a Georgia Bureau of Investigation autopsy are still pending and may be a long time coming. But he said preliminary investigation suggests COVID-19 gave the boy a fever, which triggered a seizure that happened to occur while he was bathing.
Febrile seizures are not uncommon in young children and can be brought on by a number of illnesses and infections.

The boy was unresponsive before being taken to a local hospital, where he was pronounced dead. A rapid COVID-19 test conducted at the hospital came up positive, Wessinger said.
The boy was not believed to have had any pre-existing conditions.
“Every COVID-19 death we report is tragic, but to lose someone so young is especially heart-breaking,” Dr. Lawton Davis, director of the Coastal Health District, said in a statement released after the child’s death. “We know that older individuals and those with underlying conditions are at higher risk of complications, but this is a disease everyone should take seriously.”

As of Saturday afternoon, Georgia had confirmed more than 213,000 cases of COVID-19 and reported 4,186 deaths.
Prior to the death of the young boy in Savannah, the state’s youngest fatality was a 17-year-old from Fulton County.
About two-thirds of the Georgians who have died were 70 or older.

I figured I'd just leave the whole text of that kid dying of COVID-induced drowning here for everyone to take in as they please.
 

eternal dog mongler

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See the thing is with the so-called "Third World", is that people are more likely to die from serious shit.
Basically COVID has a hard time killing off people in a country where Typhoid, Dengue and Whooping Cough have already murked all the vulnerable.

It's the tuberculosis.

But yeah look at Nigeria's age demographics. 60% of their population is under 25. Most other African countries are worse. If you have some kind of underlying condition that would have caused COVID-19 to kill you then well you're probably already dead.
 

Fanatical Pragmatist

Bomber Harris Do It Again!
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Wrote this up in reply to the "muh long-term effects" argument. I have a feeling that whole thread is finna end up in the Thunderdome, so I'm leaving it here for everyone and book marking it for later use.

Let me preface this by explaining that Coronaviruses are not like HIV (retrovirus), Herpes (DNA virus) or Shingles (DNA virus) - they are a simple RNA virus. They hijack individual cells but they do not alter the host's DNA like Retroviruses (which are an advanced form of RNA virus which can reverse-transcribe its RNA to alter the host's DNA) or true DNA viruses. Simply put, this means that Coronaviruses infect, do the damage, and then are done and gone without permanently changing the host. So, any long-term damage that comes from COVID must happen within that infection window of four days to two months. It is also worth noticing that there is no evolutionary advantage to causing long-term damage for a basic RNA virus, therefore any and all damage is "incidental" rather than "intentional".

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is the primary vessel for long-term damage because it basically deprives your other organs of oxygen. ARDS is also a major culprit in the "hyper-coagulation" reported in a small number of cases which causes blot clots, strokes, heart attacks, etc. (source). It is important to note that ARDS is strongly linked to hospitalizations, specifically ICU admissions:
(Archive)

Now unfortunately ideal information about what true percentage of COVID cases require hospitalization and/or ICU admission is surprisingly hard to come by in a both reliable and condensed, direct number. However, we can make some estimates about hospitalization and ICU rates using existing data.

Based on early data from the CDC, the hospitalization rate of COVID-19 is 20-31% (with an associated fatality rate of 1.8 - 3.4%)
(Raw Source)
If we use theses number, we can generate a rough-guess range for the number of people vulnerable to "long-term affects" of COVID-19 by cross-referencing them with numbers for infection mortality rate (IFR) (where IFR is our proxy for unreported asymptomatic/mild cases).

For a good meta-analysis (taking data from 32 peer-reviewed articles), I'll be using the following paper:
(Archive)

By comparing more plausible estimates of IFR to the previously estimated IFR, we can get a percentage of what the true hospitalization rate would look like.
For example, 1.31 is about 73% of 1.8, therefore hospitalizations would reflect only 73% of their previous estimate, while 0.27 is just 15% of 1.8, therefore hospitalizations would reflect about 15% of their previous estimate.
HOWEVER, something to consider is that deaths are "eating from the same plate" as are long-term effects, hence the subtraction of the IFR rate from the correct hospitalization/ICU numbers
CDC 20% Hospitalization (1.8% IFR)CDC 4.9% ICU (1.8% IFR)CDC 31% Hospitalization (3.4% IFR)CDC 11.5% ICU (3.4% IFR)
Ioannidis Max IFR (1.31%)14.6% (- 1.31 = 13.29%)3.5% (-1.31 = 2.19%)11.7% (-1.31 = 10.39%)8.3% (-1.31 = 6.99%)
Ioannidis Median IFR Epicenter (0.27%)3% (-0.27 = 2.73%)0.74% (-0.27 = 0.47%)2.2% (-0.27 = 1.93%)0.81% (-0.27 = 0.54%)
Ioannidis Median IFR Normal (0.1%)1% (-0.1 = 0.9%)0.25% (-0.1 = 0.15%)0.62% (-0.1 = 0.52%)0.23% (-0.1 = 0.13%)

Now its important to note that while these estimations are rough, that they are still likely over-estimations for a number of reasons:
1) Data is from earlier in the pandemic and uses a smaller sample size
2) They assume everyone that either is hospitalized and/or has severe cases will end up with long term side effects, which is not a given. Because of what I said earlier about COVID being a basic RNA virus which does not permanently colonize the host like HIV, Herpes, Shingles, etc.; it can only damage in that short time frame which means that the estimated excess of severe cases far outweighs the few statistical outliers where mild cases resulted in long-term damage.
3) Asymptomatic/mild cases are a relatively dynamic variable, while hospitalization and death rates are largely static.
4) Preexisting/underlying conditions. These rates do not reflect how many people were already vulnerable (i.e. if you already have damaged lungs, ARDS is more likely to do more damage to the lungs; if you're already obese you are more likely to blot clot, etc.)


Personally, I'd put the most stake in the 0.47-0.54% estimates, simply because the Median IFR is going to be the better proxy than the best/worse case estimates; but either way in most circumstances long-term damage is far from the inevitable, impending and highly-likely monster its made out to be.
 

eternal dog mongler

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Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is the primary vessel for long-term damage because it basically deprives your other organs of oxygen. ARDS is also a major culprit in the "hyper-coagulation" reported in a small number of cases which causes blot clots, strokes, heart attacks, etc. (source). It is important to note that ARDS is strongly linked to hospitalizations, specifically ICU admissions:

I only really know about hospitalized patients, but the hypercoagulation isn't rare in that group. It's in about half of them.

It's not your daddy's ARDS either, and that's how NYC was killing everyone placing them on vents early without any form of VTE prophylaxis. Even WITH antithrombotic prophlyaxis the PE rates continue to be high. High PEEP on a vent combined with hypercoagulation is a recipe for a PE.

As far as long-term effects go, we won't know about that for a while.
 

737 MAX Stan Account

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Quijibo69

Da Merge
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Bender

I am not a threat. I'm an idiot.
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What we should’ve been doing all along instead of this one size fits all faggotry.
Well that's really gonna help, keeping the fatties locked up in their houses with nothing to do but eat and watch TV.
 

FatalTater

Fattest Among Thousands, Altogether Lethargic
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Parents - stick it to Betsy DeVos and Corona-Chan by homeschooling! Here's a link to a page that lists homeschooling laws by state. https://hslda.org/legal
For states with minimal guidelines, google up the things that kids should know by the end of whatever grade your lil' munchkin should be in, then teach them that stuff.
Be amazed at how quickly you can do this, then ponder how much of a public school day is spent going form class to class and getting settled in to work.
Teachers are mostly crowd control experts. If you aren't in charge of a crowd then the job becomes simpler.
Oh yeah, and don't go around coughing on people. I know it's fun but we need to stop for a while, 'kay?
 

Overly Serious

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They were going to do that anyway, lockdown or not.

Actually, I have gained a not insignificant amount of weight since the lockdowns. Formerly I wasn't as lean as I'd like but I was managing it. I live alone - not being able to go to the gym, not seeing friends, not being able to go out places walking (my main outdoor hobby is hiking) - all brought back a cycle of depression and poor eating I thought I had broken. I state with 100% certainty that the lockdowns have increased my chance of dying from Covid-19 than not.

Between the deathfats and the sporty people, there exists a tubby medium of people who are just tired from long hours at the end of the day and who rely on social life and going out to help them avoid tipping into the seriously overweight category. Lockdown has been really fucking bad for those of us who struggle with occasional depression.
 

Bender

I am not a threat. I'm an idiot.
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Actually, I have gained a not insignificant amount of weight since the lockdowns. Formerly I wasn't as lean as I'd like but I was managing it. I live alone - not being able to go to the gym, not seeing friends, not being able to go out places walking (my main outdoor hobby is hiking) - all brought back a cycle of depression and poor eating I thought I had broken. I state with 100% certainty that the lockdowns have increased my chance of dying from Covid-19 than not.

Between the deathfats and the sporty people, there exists a tubby medium of people who are just tired from long hours at the end of the day and who rely on social life and going out to help them avoid tipping into the seriously overweight category. Lockdown has been really fucking bad for those of us who struggle with occasional depression.
Dox your abdomen.
 

Turd Cow

Sir, would you like a jawbreaker
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I went to the beach yesterday, and it was packed. The restruants were full of cars. The hotels actually had cars in their parking lots. People were not wearing mask on the beach (thank goodness). And when coming home, I saw a Texas Roadhouse packed with cars.

I'm believing that this virus hysteria is finally wearing out.
 
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