Wuhan Coronavirus: Megathread -

Which country(ies) will fare the worst due to the WuFlu?


  • Total voters
    2,285

JosephStalin

Vozhd
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
Thank you for putting things into perspective for myself and others. What should I make of Iranians reporting that conditions for patients deteriorate extremely rapidly though, or some of the more bleak news we've gotten?

A good question, without trying to be a smart-ass. Could be a mutation. Could be poor medical services. Could be some or all of the patients have significant risk factors such as age, weak immune system, other diseases.

If these things are happening on a relatively small scale in just a few places, that's one thing. If we see this happening many patients, especially in a number of geographically separated areas, that's another. The medical and scientific people need to stay on top of this because this virus seems to be a moving target re medicines and vaccines. Again, putting things in overall perspective.

But I would add that a number of organizations are working on a vaccine, and there may be some combination of medicines that could also deal with this virus. So, advise coming back here. Believe our global KF corps is about the best place for good info and good analysis going.

Wuflu supply chain impacts for Jan 21 via r/supply chain. Report on the projected economic slowdown is attached.

Post | archive

Folks, you read it here first. No surprise whatsoever. Seriously, if you think you need that new computer/TV/electronic gadget/appliance consider getting it now while the getting is good. My new laptop coming today.
 
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MarvinTheParanoidAndroid

This will all end in tears, I just know it.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
I'm not worried about getting the virus personally. I am worried about near term economic effects. I predict we will start to see empty shelves in American stores by summer of both hard and soft goods.
There's no way they'd be stupid enough to allow production to get that bad before bailing on China and going literally anywhere else in the world that would let them exploit labor for pennies on the dollar like China does.
 

Tasty Tatty

kiwifarms.net
Thank you for putting things into perspective for myself and others. What should I make of Iranians reporting that conditions for patients deteriorate extremely rapidly though, or some of the more bleak news we've gotten?

That God's on Trump's side because he's getting rid of his enemies?

Seriously, Iran has bad living conditions and their gov. is as bad as China handling info.

The virus is out everywhere already, the best we can do is to inform people properly, close the borders, isolate, and make the best of that. It's not longer a question of IF, but WHEN and HOW we'll be able to get through it. Peopel with better health and better resources will do well. Most of us belongs to that category.
 

Noideawhattopick

kiwifarms.net
There's no way they'd be stupid enough to allow production to get that bad before bailing on China and going literally anywhere else in the world that would let them exploit labor for pennies on the dollar like China does.
Exactly. China's CCP is ruthless as we know they will continue to produce even when the virus hasn't been defeated yet.
They do not want to loose their production monopoly, whatever it cosrs.
 

MarvinTheParanoidAndroid

This will all end in tears, I just know it.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
The last ditch solution would be to move production back to the US, because the cost of goods would skyrocket if produced at US wages.

This will only serve to accelerate the Retail Apocalypse. 5000 stores in 2018, 10,000 in 2019. Probably 20,000 in 2020, and several massive chains closing their doors. Spike in unemployment as hundreds of thousands are fired. All levels will be effected, from hourly drones to executives.
My forecast is that at that time it won't really matter if prices inflate from that happening because the money spent on buying home sourced product is going back to the country it came from rather than into a foreign power. At that point, the apparent price will change but the overall wealth will increase because the resources being used are coming from local stock rather than from overseas.
 

Otterly

Primark Primarch
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
There's no way they'd be stupid enough to allow production to get that bad before bailing on China and going literally anywhere else in the world that would let them exploit labor for pennies on the dollar like China does.
All those places may get hit very badly too. China has had a head start, but that cluster in Iran is worrying, s korea looks like it’s next, and similar clusters are inevitable elsewhere. They will be wondering which third world country they can exploit next, but none of them are guaranteed not to go down the route China has in terms of spread. I think at this point it’s going everywhere and by definition third world countries have third world governments and healthcare.
Bringing production back to the west, or at least part of it - I mean it sounds fantastic, but I can imagine there will be a lot of resistance to it. Exposing how weak our globalist economy is is no bad thing. We live in interesting times
 

Arctic Fox

You won't get past my wall.
kiwifarms.net
Talk about smoking gun...


*Conspiracies Intensify and reaches a new level*

Do we still all remember the Bill and Melinda Gates "sponsored" event 201 virus outbreak simulation a few months ago before this shit went out..
Enough with the conspiracy theories. We all know the truth about Gates. His nigger cattle herd and what he's being doing with them. This is a problem.
 

Dog-O-Tron 5000v5.0

Shitlord
Verified Kiwileak
kiwifarms.net
There's no way they'd be stupid enough to allow production to get that bad before bailing on China and going literally anywhere else in the world that would let them exploit labor for pennies on the dollar like China does.

How long do you think it takes to go to a country, scout out buildings, meet with govt officials, get permits, hire people, move machinery over (or buy new machinery), train workers, and set up exports? Like 2 weeks or something? And you think the cost is just negligible?

Chinese suppliers are telling companies that the factories are reopening any day now. A smart company would ignore that and vacate China now. Most companies will want to believe it, and if they move assume it might be temporary and can get back to China in a year or so. A lot of companies will try to ride it out. Not to mention the fact that you have companies that put together products, but the pieces are from other Chinese companies. You have to move a lot of the ground up stuff out of China. We've set ourselves up as an economy where it's cheaper to grow chickens and slaughter them in the US, fly them to China, process them, and send them back. You aren't going to walk into a village in Bumfuck, Thailand and be able to make that chicken factory (or textile, or sewing, or machining, or gadget building factory) overnight.

It might be possible to move, but there will be a definite lapse in available just in time inventory. Best case scenario you're right. Companies are looking to permanently leave China now. They are setting up factories now, preferably not in Asia where cases are spreading. Still expect an interregnum between the last ships of Chinese goods hitting to the new non-Chinese goods appearing on the shelves. At best you're talking sparse shelves and some product shortages in the summer to fall, with at least a 20% decline in sales for Back To School shopping. You could see a recovery in available inventory by Christmas. However some retailers on the brink will definitely shut their doors--expect say Sears/Kmart, Pennys, and a few small fashion chains to be gone by the year's end. The impact on stores like Dollar Tree and Family Dollar which survive on cheap Chinese shit as well as the mom and pop dollar stores could be huge. Apu at the dirt mall who has a store full of cheap knockoff shit he buys from sketchy Chinese sites for 30 cents and sells for a dollar is gone.
 

MarvinTheParanoidAndroid

This will all end in tears, I just know it.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
All those places may get hit very badly too. China has had a head start, but that cluster in Iran is worrying, s korea looks like it’s next, and similar clusters are inevitable elsewhere. They will be wondering which third world country they can exploit next, but none of them are guaranteed not to go down the route China has in terms of spread. I think at this point it’s going everywhere and by definition third world countries have third world governments and healthcare.
Bringing production back to the west, or at least part of it - I mean it sounds fantastic, but I can imagine there will be a lot of resistance to it. Exposing how weak our globalist economy is is no bad thing. We live in interesting times
Local companies are going to emerge almost immediately if supply chains from foreign countries fail. Remember when Hostess went out of business and declared bankruptcy and stopped producing Twinkies? Remember what happened between then and when they sold out and got their shit together? Other companies I never even heard of stepped up to the plate to take their place until they came back to retake their real estate at Walmart and gas station shelves. There are people out there banging on the walls from the outside to get in just for a chance to make a stand over China and the globalist economy as a whole. There's going to be turbulence no doubt, but it'll be temporary.
 

MarvinTheParanoidAndroid

This will all end in tears, I just know it.
True & Honest Fan
kiwifarms.net
How long do you think it takes to go to a country, scout out buildings, meet with govt officials, get permits, hire people, move machinery over (or buy new machinery), train workers, and set up exports? Like 2 weeks or something? And you think the cost is just negligible?
If they're smart they'll figure out quickly that no cost is too great to stay in business.
Chinese suppliers are telling companies that the factories are reopening any day now. A smart company would ignore that and vacate China now. Most companies will want to believe it, and if they move assume it might be temporary and can get back to China in a year or so. A lot of companies will try to ride it out. Not to mention the fact that you have companies that put together products, but the pieces are from other Chinese companies. You have to move a lot of the ground up stuff out of China. We've set ourselves up as an economy where it's cheaper to grow chickens and slaughter them in the US, fly them to China, process them, and send them back. You aren't going to walk into a village in Bumfuck, Thailand and be able to make that chicken factory (or textile, or sewing, or machining, or gadget building factory) overnight.
You'd be surprised at how quickly deployment can go in a third world shithole like China with no building code standards. Companies have already bailed out of China and have gone to India instead.
It might be possible to move, but there will be a definite lapse in available just in time inventory. Best case scenario you're right. Companies are looking to permanently leave China now. They are setting up factories now, preferably not in Asia where cases are spreading. Still expect an interregnum between the last ships of Chinese goods hitting to the new non-Chinese goods appearing on the shelves. At best you're talking sparse shelves and some product shortages in the summer to fall, with at least a 20% decline in sales for Back To School shopping. You could see a recovery in available inventory by Christmas. However some retailers on the brink will definitely shut their doors--expect say Sears/Kmart, Pennys, and a few small fashion chains to be gone by the year's end. The impact on stores like Dollar Tree and Family Dollar which survive on cheap Chinese shit as well as the mom and pop dollar stores could be huge. Apu at the dirt mall who has a store full of cheap knockoff shit he buys from sketchy Chinese sites for 30 cents and sells for a dollar is gone.
Oh I fully expect for all the cheap and dying store outlets to bite the dust unless they start to make very smart moves very quickly right this Goddamn minute. Otherwise we'll have genuinely superior options end up taking their place.

Again, worst case scenario is this will result in a paradigm shift of just where exactly we source materials. We might move toward just getting cheap Russian shit instead.
 
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Dog-O-Tron 5000v5.0

Shitlord
Verified Kiwileak
kiwifarms.net
My forecast is that at that time it won't really matter if prices inflate from that happening because the money spent on buying home sourced product is going back to the country it came from rather than into a foreign power. At that point, the apparent price will change but the overall wealth will increase because the resources being used are coming from local stock rather than from overseas.

Adding a few hundred thousand jobs at $15 an hour isn't going to help most people afford a blanket that goes from $20 to $50, shoes that go from $50 to $80, or a smartphone that costs $2500 instead of $500. Even if you pay people federal minimum of $7.25 it's massively more than paying someone $.60 an hour, plus bennies, union shit, US state and federal safety regulations, mandated training, hr personnel. Do you think Wang Ling is going to have a diversity rep that makes $50k a year he can complain to when Shing Chu grabs his ass? Shelly in Idaho sure does. And she can't work more than x hours without a break, or x hours a day, and anything over 40 is time and a half.

There's a reason why manufacturing jobs have been leaving the US for the past 40 years. And don't mistake this for arguing for that: I'd love to see manufacturing jobs back here, less reliance on global imports, less of a drive to move Americans off actual work and on to UBI. But if that comes, it won't come without a massive negative effect on quality of life in the US in the near term at least.

There's not much we can do about it, except buy what you can now, save money now, think about living with less. Learn to make shit last longer. Repair instead of replace. If you can't afford a new phone every 2 years, take good care of your current one. Be frugal with food instead of buying too much so it expires and you throw out half of it. Look into cleaning and repairing your shoes instead of buying new ones. Buy better quality, less fashionable (ie timeless) basic clothes. Think of how you might live if you or your family members were unemployed for a few years, or took a 40% pay cut. Live like that now.

You don't have to start hoarding gold and guns and MREs, but you can make it so if we at least get as bad as 2008 or the late 70s malaise you won't suffer as much.
 

Homersexual

kiwifarms.net
Agent Smith from Matrix made a video about the WHO's corruption. I really really hope Corona-chan summons her inner Bane and crashes the plane that is CCP with no survivors.
 

EmuWarsVeteran

Lord Kek's Faithful Servant.
kiwifarms.net
Just wait for this year’s Hajj... when’s that? August or something?

First she did more to end communism than the cold war. Now she's gonna make the war on terror look like pussy shit. Corona-chan: world peace opperative. Man this shit better get an anime adaptation.

The CDC should be working 24/7 to develop a vaccine. I know testing takes time to develop it and then testing in humans will also take time but there needs to be a vaccine this year.

I’m cancelling all airplane travel this year unless things settle down by summer.

I assure you they are. But the largest time sink in vaccine de elopment is the spacing between samples and injections, and that shit just can't be accelerated. So really... it'll take what it always takes. I know people are used to flu vaccines being super fast, but they are that way because most months the only question is what preexisting strands will pop up more and even the new ones are so similar to prior years than the test are more for confirmation of what we know will work than actual development.

The less you know about the virus the lesser the chance of the prototype working, the higher the chance of it having side effects and the more the number of tests it'll take, and man, we know so fucking little about how to vaccinate against coronaviri... That's why quarantine was so important. And why what the WHO did should be prosecuted as bioterrorism. You can't fooking make this shit faster we've already put it at the point where we spend most of the time doing something else while we wait for the test subject to spread the particles around its cells and react to them.

That God's on Trump's side because he's getting rid of his enemies?

I remember when the sanctions to spain by america were anounced and the media was all "oh woe is us why would trump be so eeeevil? Our presidents just tried to increase our economy by fucking america over and now orange man bad is coming after us!!!!" And the general population's response was basically "Wait those dumbfucks tried to 'ave a chin wagging contest with GOD EMPEROR TRUMP himself? Who even does that?!" Seriously people, don't fuck with trump, he'll win. That really is the lesson of the last 4 years.
 

simulated goat

pleasant goat beauty
kiwifarms.net
For those who have read " The Stand" too many times and would like a new plague scenario to mull over, may I suggest Stewart O'Nan's "A Prayer For the Dying", set in a 1870's Death-Trip Wisconsin where the world is burning and everyone is dropping dead from diptheria. It's a wicked little story, about 150 pages or so and the only one I've ever read that was written in second person. Not conducive to sleep, though.
 

UnimportantFarmer

kiwifarms.net
A good question, without trying to be a smart-ass. Could be a mutation. Could be poor medical services. Could be some or all of the patients have significant risk factors such as age, weak immune system, other diseases.

If these things are happening on a relatively small scale in just a few places, that's one thing. If we see this happening many patients, especially in a number of geographically separated areas, that's another. The medical and scientific people need to stay on top of this because this virus seems to be a moving target re medicines and vaccines. Again, putting things in overall perspective.

But I would add that a number of organizations are working on a vaccine, and there may be some combination of medicines that could also deal with this virus. So, advise coming back here. Believe our global KF corps is about the best place for good info and good analysis going.
Iranian cities, at least Tehran, has terrible, threadbare medical services and has otherwordly levels of pollution thanks to vast fleets of old Brit and French cars from the time of the Shah made under licence (like the Peykan), which some drive around all day as fuel is cheap and there's no work, and nothing to do. What I mean is that this type of illness perhaps is harsher in places where a lot of people will have lungs and other organs already damaged by severe pollution. China would be like that. Maybe that's a thing big urban areas in India too. Dunno. Paykan_Hillman_Hunter_(8688702841).jpg
 

Qi Meng Dealer

kiwifarms.net
Or maybe the Chinese factories will start back up in a couple weeks. It's just a flu bro.

It's not just a flu, but I expect Xi to force factories to start up in the next few weeks, contagion be damned. He can't let companies be spooked enough to consider a move to other countries permanently. China's economy is already in slowdown mode even before SARS 2: Pandemic Boogaloo hit.
 

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